Runline discussion thread - Saturday 15 Aug 09

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Runline discussion thread - Saturday 15 Aug 09
runlines PM runlines
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Posted: 8/15/2009 4:07:59 AM

Good day again yesterday guys -- the Cubs and Cards covered, I know they were my two faves.

The "system" (which we don't support or oppose, but which I know interests some) is now 11-4, and + 8.1 units on a one-unit-per-day application.

On to Saturday....




gushab PM gushab
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Posted: 8/15/2009 4:16:35 AM
Hey Run   Chisux look like they are going to push for the post season now  IMHO
gameover2 PM gameover2
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Posted: 8/15/2009 4:27:53 AM
Cubs look like a good play tomorrow as well.
runlines PM runlines
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Posted: 8/15/2009 5:07:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gameover2:

Cubs look like a good play tomorrow as well.


I'm a little nervous about the Cubs because of Aramis --

They sure pounded the ball yesterday, but that was one day against Morton.

Without him, they lost 5 in a row, whereas with him, they had been on a real tear.

He seems to make all the difference.

Plus Zach Duke is not terrible. 

I'm not saying I'd take Pittsburgh, but I might just stay away from this one.

Anyone have any thoughts on St. Louis, Detroit, and the Angels?

gameover2 PM gameover2
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Posted: 8/15/2009 5:29:56 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by runlines:



I'm a little nervous about the Cubs because of Aramis --

They sure pounded the ball yesterday, but that was one day against Morton.

Without him, they lost 5 in a row, whereas with him, they had been on a real tear.

He seems to make all the difference.

Plus Zach Duke is not terrible. 

I'm not saying I'd take Pittsburgh, but I might just stay away from this one.

Anyone have any thoughts on St. Louis, Detroit, and the Angels?

Cubs have been struggling recently but I think that's because they were playing Colorado and Philly, 2 of the better teams in the NL. With Pitt however, I expect them to fare much better.

Duke's not terrible, but he hasn't been good his past starts too. Plus, I don't believe he'll get run support tomorrow.

I expect the Cubs to have boosted their morale with this blowout enough to cover the runline.

I'm feeling St Louis but I'm just not comfotable with their offense. San Diego's been battling their past games too so I might just lay off this game.

About the Angels, they got shelled last night worse than Afganistan or Iraq. Best believe they will pull through. Baltimore hasn't won consecutive games in weeks now so I'm leaning heavily against them.

Lastly, I like playing day games over night games so in all likelihood, I'll pull the trigger big on the Cubs runline.

runlines PM runlines
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Posted: 8/15/2009 6:17:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gameover2:

Cubs have been struggling recently but I think that's because they were playing Colorado and Philly, 2 of the better teams in the NL. With Pitt however, I expect them to fare much better.

Duke's not terrible, but he hasn't been good his past starts too. Plus, I don't believe he'll get run support tomorrow.

I expect the Cubs to have boosted their morale with this blowout enough to cover the runline.

I'm feeling St Louis but I'm just not comfotable with their offense. San Diego's been battling their past games too so I might just lay off this game.

About the Angels, they got shelled last night worse than Afganistan or Iraq. Best believe they will pull through. Baltimore hasn't won consecutive games in weeks now so I'm leaning heavily against them.

Lastly, I like playing day games over night games so in all likelihood, I'll pull the trigger big on the Cubs runline.



I hear you...  Yah, they should be able to take care of Pittsburgh.  It is daunting to reflect that without Aramis, the Cubs are 30-37, including 1-5 most recently, and with him, they're 29-18. 

So with him, they have a better winning percentage than the Dodgers, and without him, they are slightly better than the Pirates.  They actually split the two games against Colorado that Aramis played, and would not, I think, have been swept by Philly with him in the lineup.  (With Aramis playing, they took one of three in Philadelphia just a few weeks ago.)

I do like the way Pittsburgh has been playing (I mean, for your bet) -- getting pummeled, not only losing, but generally by more than 1 1/2.  Of all their pitchers, Zach Duke would be the one I fear most, especially outside of Pittsburgh.   Still, they've won three games since August 25 -- two of them against the Nationals.  Not bad.

-5innings PM -5innings
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Posted: 8/15/2009 7:42:49 AM
QUOTE
Originally Posted by runlines:



Anyone have any thoughts on St. Louis, Detroit, and the Angels?



All three look like decent first 5 runlines (-0.5) to me:

1. Starter mismatch, of course.
2. So-so bullpens, so may as well hit the f5.
3. St.L. and LAAofA have been scoring and scoring in the f5 pretty well of late.  Detroit, soso.
4. Team mismatch in all three games.  (More than 20 games, I'd guess.)


-5innings PM -5innings
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Posted: 8/15/2009 8:04:48 AM
I would also give some thought to Colorado....

HomerTrack PM HomerTrack
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Posted: 8/15/2009 8:40:52 AM
Tampa Bay and Texas too.


TorontoJoey PM TorontoJoey
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Posted: 8/15/2009 8:44:24 AM
gameover2 PM gameover2
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Posted: 8/15/2009 4:18:29 PM
Cubs just did enough to cover the runline. Gorzy even had an RBI. I have to admit I sweated that one out especially with Kevin Gregg pitching for the save. 
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