Posted: 2/19/2012 3:48:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cheeersM8:
would you still take it at -7.5?? cause i don't think 6.5 is available unless you jumped on it right away
It really depends on what you feel is the "key" number. I have a buddy who has done nothing but NBA for years and been successful at it, and he's come up with the conclusion that the only "real key number" in the NBA is 7. If a team is down 7, they aren't going to foul.
Now for college, I have no statistical analysis to back up that statement, but I will be hitting this in the off-season. I would assume it's going to be different for different types of teams. When they foul, how early they foul, when do they stop fouling. I assume bigger conference foul less frequently, and the smaller ones foul earlier and more often towards end of games. Again, I have no analysis to back this up in terms of stats, just an observation. And definitely something I will be stashing in each coach's file and hope to use it in the future.
Of course, that only comes in to question if the game is close. Value is value.
I guess to answer your question, I still see value at 7.5. I probably would have played up to 10. Now, that's just me.
Make your judgement, play on value.