Michigan Matchups

Forum: Nascar
Author: [Nascar] Topic: Michigan Matchups
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 10:18:36 AM
This new tire thing may have totally ed my early picks.  I have some picks this morning at 5dimes, but the odds are already changing.

edwards -125 over stewart (1 unit)
biffle -115 over hamlin (2 units)
jr -115 over kyle (3 units)
newman under 12.5 (2 units)

That jr/kyle line isn't right.  I don't see anything that would lead anyone to believe that jr shouldn't be a big favorite over kyle.  Jr has been faster every practice, and qualifying.  Could be the "Hiro Matsushita" line of the day  (my nickname for the worse line of the week).  Not guaranteed to win, but still not the right odds posted by the books.

Last week I used this strategy and it worked.  I put 1 unit on hendricks cars to win, and 1 on gibbs cars to win, both around +200.

This week I took 1 unit roush cars +300, and 1 unit hendricks cars +240.  Obviously 1 will lose, but if roush or hendricks win we turn a profit.
dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Iowa
 
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Posted: 6/17/2012 10:59:18 AM
GL
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 11:08:06 AM
thx
clepto PM clepto
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Ontario
 
clepto
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Posted: 6/17/2012 11:34:39 AM
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 11:49:37 AM
Didn't have the info on Newman starting in the back before I made the play under 12.5...but I still think I'm going to sit tight on it.  He was great here last year, and I think his team will get him up there to run inside the top 12.
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 6/17/2012 12:18:46 PM
bol buddy
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 1:07:40 PM
Debated about it because of the odds all morning, but I'll play Logano -155 over Kurt for 2 units.
DRocNJ PM DRocNJ
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Posted: 6/17/2012 1:14:04 PM
I was surprised to see at Kyle at 8-1 this morning, too. Have a feeling he's gonna run really strong today. Someone seems to know something.
DRocNJ PM DRocNJ
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Posted: 6/17/2012 1:14:39 PM
Good luck today, btw. 
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 6/17/2012 1:32:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Didn't have the info on Newman starting in the back before I made the play under 12.5...but I still think I'm going to sit tight on it.  He was great here last year, and I think his team will get him up there to run inside the top 12.
    truex up to -150 over newman    think brad finishing over 8th might b a gift 2day any thoughts?
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 1:59:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DRocNJ:

I was surprised to see at Kyle at 8-1 this morning, too. Have a feeling he's gonna run really strong today. Someone seems to know something.


He was terrible in qualifying, and then couldn't break the top 20 in tire testing.  They might have some problems. 
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 2:01:04 PM
I can't get a good read on Brad yet this year.  I don't think he will finish in the top 8, but -145 is a lot to lay...plus that team is sneaky with fuel strategy and pit stops. 
DRocNJ PM DRocNJ
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Posted: 6/17/2012 2:16:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:



He was terrible in qualifying, and then couldn't break the top 20 in tire testing.  They might have some problems. 

He also had 2 strong practices, and won here just last year. I wouldn't make too much of the qualifying run. He'll be coming to the front. 
freamer3 PM freamer3
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Posted: 6/17/2012 2:54:40 PM
GL, laid the wood on Joey as well in that match up
madshooter72 PM madshooter72
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Posted: 6/17/2012 3:06:43 PM
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 4:57:43 PM
The one time I get behind Logano...he wrecks and I get to watch Kurt Busch limp around the track with his car duct taped together with my $ in his pocket. 
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 6/17/2012 6:10:07 PM
Lost -4 units today after all was said and done.  Definitely wasn't my week.  I didn't like the early lines with hamlin, bif, kenseth +money against Johnson.  I only took hamlin...that backfired.  Logano clearly had the better than Kurt...bad luck with the wreck.  And Newman continues to kill me on races where I like to back him.  Oh well, when it's not your week, it's not your week.  +10 units so far this year.

Congrats on all you JR backers...hope you made  back that he's cost everyone the last 4 years!!!
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