|Money Management is truly key. Especially here with such a potentially long chase. I think chases can make some loot as long as you bet very small to begin with. A small initial bet may be boring, BUT it will allow to play out a system such as this without too much panic. Whatever this system is.
Posted: 12/27/2013 11:01:36 AM
A word of caution is that just when you don't think something is possible - it happens. A couple years ago I played a 'system' I made up during the NHL Playoffs. Very simple. Fade every team when they play on the Road in a CHASE. Once they lose a Road game the chase was a winner and over with. I had back-tested and figured I'd make a little money. Then the unimaginable happened and the LA Kings Jonathan Quicked me en route to winning EVERY Road game in the Playoffs and the Stanley Cup. I kept chasing a Road loss from them all the way and got slapped for A LOT of losses! I also got smoked fading the Astros 6 games in a row last season (beat Rockies 2 games, then LA Angels 4 in a row!).
I did quick math at -142 avg odds and if your unit is $50 and you go to a "F Game" (which has happened twice in the three yrs of back-testing), your F Game bet will be $5,892.94 to win $4,149.96. Clearly it is unlikely that you lose that F Game, but "what if." That would take out a tad more than half of your bankroll. "What if" it happened early in the season?
Not bashing, just tossing out some painful wisdom. In My Opinion, the way the beat the book is by small bets that you can chase if you desire and chip away at those person - nickel and dimeing THEM instead of you! On Aug 30 I deposited $1500 in an account and have patiently grown it to just over $4500 as of yesterday.
Chip away, baby, and be safe out there