5 Run WIN Chase

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 5 Run WIN Chase
stickbit PM stickbit
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Posted: 7/7/2013 10:49:14 PM
btw if you have an 'a' 'b' 'c' etc. breakdown for this season would you mind posting? thanks!
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 7/14/2013 11:51:07 PM
My record at the All-Star break is 87-1.  I am up +82.4 units because of my betting structure and also because I did not bet the D game in the only loss.
stickbit PM stickbit
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Posted: 7/15/2013 11:03:59 PM
great 1st half man...congrats. question - if you are on the a or b game etc. and the team you are chasing loses by 5 runs or more do you skip 2 games before you continue on? 
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 7/16/2013 6:53:24 AM
No...I continue that chase, but also start a new one.
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stickbit PM stickbit
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Posted: 7/16/2013 2:03:48 PM
Cool thanks! Do you happen to have an.a b c d breakdown for first half of the season?
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leo81 PM leo81
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Posted: 7/22/2013 4:12:29 AM
I have been following Cisco for a few years and like what you have done here. It looks secure---Good luck
djknoell PM djknoell
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Posted: 7/22/2013 8:49:51 AM
do you post the pics or have a spreadsheet?
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Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 7/28/2013 9:53:57 PM
flwareagle - Bal lost gm1 by 5 runs. we continue with them tomorrow right?

For anyone following I am tracking the games here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdGtjdnlxVmlVeEpaOXF4Vkk4djFwTFE#gid=2

Missing a few so if you can, flwareagle double check it please. i would appreciate it.
stickbit PM stickbit
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Posted: 7/28/2013 10:36:58 PM
air - i can help here. since the chase already started he does NOT skip 2 game now (like Cisco does) ...he continues on and begins another chase as well since Balt lost today by 5+ runs. so we have gm 2 on tuesday (off tomorrow) on the original chase and another balt chase begins on the 31st.  note - he does skip another two games if they lose by 5+ runs in either 'skip 1' or 'skip 2' gms... if that makes sense lol!
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 7/29/2013 3:42:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stickbit:

air - i can help here. since the chase already started he does NOT skip 2 game now (like Cisco does) ...he continues on and begins another chase as well since Balt lost today by 5+ runs. so we have gm 2 on tuesday (off tomorrow) on the original chase and another balt chase begins on the 31st.  note - he does skip another two games if they lose by 5+ runs in either 'skip 1' or 'skip 2' gms... if that makes sense lol!

That is correct.  I treat it as a completely independent chase.  The reason I still skip (even though I am playing them in the first chase) is because I don't want to lose two chases with the same team if I can avoid it.  If I lose the first because the qualifying team is playing bad or whatever, then maybe the two skipped games will give them time to "ride out their slump" and I won't lose the second.  Has worked so far, but losses are inevitable.  I always EXPECT a couple of losses from any system...even undefeated ones.  That is why I try to manage my money in a way that those losses don't destroy the BR.  And I don't always bet the D bet....didn't in the CLE loss, but have also missed a couple of wins.  Even if I do bet the D, it is still usually for a series loss even with a win.

My record to date is currently 91-1 with the following open:

BOS (A)
BAL (B) off tonight

with these pending:

TEX (skip 7/29, 7/30...start 7-31)
BAL (skip 7/30, 7/31...start 8-1)


flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 7/29/2013 3:47:41 PM
My preseason prediction for the season was that it would go 117-3.  I don't think I posted that, but I have a partner in betting these systems and that was what I projected.  Someone mentioned earlier that I missed a loss....don't know if that is true or not (haven't seen proof).  If I did, then I got pretty lucky because it would have been an oversight.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 7/29/2013 3:51:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djknoell:

do you post the pics or have a spreadsheet?

Sorry I haven't responded to this question earlier by others.  Unfortunately, I don't have the time to post it everyday or else I would.  My original plan is to shut down 8/15 (don't start anymore chases AFTER this date).
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/4/2013 11:50:40 PM
Current Season Record:  97-1
Open Chases:  1 (BAL-C...off Mon, C bet is on Tue)

PLAYS FOR MON, AUG 5

CLE (A)

PENDING CHASES

OAK (Play Tue)
STL (Skip Mon, Play Tue)
CIN (Skip Tue, Wed, Play Thur)
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/15/2013 12:03:55 AM
Well, survived a D bet with TB (didn't play though).

System shuts down Aug 15 (last day to qualify for a new chase).

Current Season Record:  106-1
Open Chases:  None

NEW CHASE

TB (A bet on Thursday)
ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Posted: 8/15/2013 10:22:05 AM
TrotBoogie212 PM TrotBoogie212
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Posted: 8/17/2013 11:07:17 AM
R there any plays for today?
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Syracuse44 PM Syracuse44
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Posted: 8/17/2013 1:22:23 PM
What about the CLE chase in post #63?

They lost 6 in a row.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/17/2013 2:27:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Syracuse44:

What about the CLE chase in post #63?

They lost 6 in a row.

They were a DOG on Aug 7 vs DET which was a C bet.  Therefore, we took them on the RL +1.5.  They lost 6-5.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/17/2013 2:38:44 PM
Well, TB won on Thursday to close the final chase.  Here is the final tally:

Final Season Record:  107-1
Total Units:  +103.4

The reason I won 103.4 units is because of the betting structure I outlined in an earlier post.  Also, I avoided betting a couple of D bets all-together (the CLE loss being one of them).  Most of the wins were A or B which returned an average of +1.2 units per win, including series losses (when I didn't bet a D game that ended up winning).

Also, I didn't start my betting structure until sometime in early May, so my Units stat was adjusted for the chases where I didn't use the current structure.  My ACTUAL total units from this system was +84.3.
Syracuse44 PM Syracuse44
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Posted: 8/17/2013 3:17:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:


They were a DOG on Aug 7 vs DET which was a C bet.  Therefore, we took them on the RL +1.5.  They lost 6-5.


OK - Thanks for the clarification.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/18/2013 4:32:29 PM
BAL defeated COL yesterday to close the final chase in my version of Cisco's 5 Run (Loss) Chase.  Here is the final tally on both 5 Run Chases that I played this year:

Final 5 Run Win Chase Results:  107-1
Final 5 Run Loss Chase Results:  102-1
Total 5 Run Chases Results:  209-2

Final 5 Run Win Chase Units:  +103.4
Final 5 Run Loss Chase Units:  +97.4
Total 5 Run Chases Units:  +200.8
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 8/18/2013 4:40:52 PM
flwareagle:

May I ask how it is that you play Cisco's system differently?  I have followed his systems the past few years and credit him with teaching me most all that I know about system wagering.  

Thank you Sir, and congratulations on a great season!  
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/18/2013 4:55:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

flwareagle:

May I ask how it is that you play Cisco's system differently?  I have followed his systems the past few years and credit him with teaching me most all that I know about system wagering.  

Thank you Sir, and congratulations on a great season!  

Yes I can tell you and I agree that many of my ideas were also inspired by Cisco.

As far as my version of the 5 Run Chase, I basically just use his original system (I'm assuming this was how he originally had it).  I only play teams with a winning pct less than .471.  I skip 2 games, then place my A bet.  If one of the 2 skipped games is a win of 5+ runs, then I restart.  I do not have any other filters.  If a current chase team wins by 5+ during the chase, I just start a completely new chase while continuing on with the original chase.
stickbit PM stickbit
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Posted: 8/21/2013 8:47:27 PM
Hey eagle congrats on a great season...so to clarify you only fade teams that have.a win perc lower than .470 on ciscos system?
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flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 8/21/2013 9:23:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stickbit:

Hey eagle congrats on a great season...so to clarify you only fade teams that have.a win perc lower than .470 on ciscos system?

Thanks.  Actually under .471 (play .470 and lower).  This must be their winning pct when they win by 5+....doesn't matter after that.
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