Posted: 12/23/2011 9:30:52 AM
Originally Posted by JayBiz:
To add to what Thomas is saying- some of the games might have 4-500 people picking them in the consensus. That's a relatively small sample too when you consider that 20 random people could read a convincing thread on why CoC +17 is a good play- they click the box and in a matter of an hour it goes from 50/50 to 54/46.
I agree with this for sure. Unfortunately the only way to really handle this problem is to wait closer to game time to make your play once most people have already made their selection on the game. This might end up hurting us on lines though since we are betting all favorites and will likely get worse lines if we wait. This may be another reason to tweek the system and only bet against the dogs that are 55% and higher since the likelihood of them dropping that significantly is lower than a team that is at 53%.
P.S. Nice avatar JayBiz, if thats your girl then you should def hang on to her.