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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Blind's ML Parlays 2nd 30 Days
Runyanb1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#51
Posted: 5/18/2012 7:18:09 AM

i did hedge..nice hit! Thanks BlindMonkey

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#52
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:35:25 AM
Thanks for the confirmation about the hedge guys/gals. I am in a little conflict about what to post in this thread.Well the purpose of this thread is to see how much I can win/loose by just betting parlays.Eveyone tells me that they are sucker bets, so me being myself(defiant) want to prove it can be done.I think I want people to make their own decision as to hedge or not,and I do think that before the MIA game,(I thought it would win LOL) hedging was the right choice.I also will admit that when it comes to hedging,or in-game bets, I am just am amature and still learning.I am happy with yesterdays results and have no regrets about my decision not to hedge (I did for a few minutes when it became clear to me that MIA was being pulverised). Today is a new day and I will carry on as usual.
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#53
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:22:07 AM
We got a nice win yesterday and are on the way back up.Maybe today we go over 60 Units wonOne of my picks looks crazy(PIT  +210)  I have made some changes to my selection method and hope it works out.


Results for Thursday May 17 ML Parlays

NYM(+108),MIA(+130),MIN(+194) 1 U to Win +13.07 U= Loss
NYM(+108),MIA(+130),OAK(+163) 1 U to Win +11.58 U= Loss
NYM(+108),MIN(+194),OAK(+163) 1 U to Win +15.08 U= Win
MIA(+130),MIN(+194),OAK(+163) 1 U to Win +16.78 U= Loss

YTD 24 Wins 116 Loss = +53.24 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 13,525.00 


Friday May 18 ML Parlays

CHW(+113),NYM(+136),PIT(+210) 1 U to Win +14.58 U
CHW(+113),NYM(+136),OAK(+103) 1 U to Win +9.2 U
CHW(+113),PIT(+210),OAK(+103) 1 U to Win +12.4 U
NYM(+136),PIT(+210),OAK(+103) 1 U to Win +13.85 U
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#54
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:30:16 AM

I already made single wagers on those underdogs (+ a few more) myself last night too. I might as well tail your RR again today.

Best of luck today, Blind_Monkey

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#55
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:31:53 AM
I'm riding with you again. I'm glad you got that big one yesterday to go positive this week. I too did hedge a little in Miami game to make sure I covered the losses on the ML and parlay amount with a little extra. 
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#56
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:39:48 AM
Thanks for the well wishes notes. Good job on the hedge eyemtlaw (it was the best move).
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#57
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:49:11 AM
BOL man. I missed all yesterday. Hope your new tweaks help you kill it more 
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#58
Posted: 5/18/2012 12:02:30 PM
Err... Verlander to lose at home.
Lets get this. BOL today.

Some more fun stuff:

= 4/13 - 4/27, AL and NL teams were 14-14 in their individual wins as your pick, and from 4/28 - 5/16 they were 20-22. Not much difference.

= However, during 4/13 - 4/27 winning days(bets) saw contribution from only 5 AL teams vs 10 NL teams, and during 4/28 - 5/16 it was 10 AL teams (3 of those were actually favorites and not dogs) vs 18 NL teams.

Does that mean there are more dog (wins) upsets in NL than AL? And if so, is it because of DH factor? OR some AL teams this year (Tex, Tor, Nyy, Det, Cle) are far superior/dominant than the group as whole and usually win as favs, and are rarely available as dog bets?

- YTD, your individual dog pick wins are divided into 30 Away dogs vs 16 Home dogs. Which is counter intuitive in itself, but is blown away by:

- Your winning days have been due to 21 Away dogs vs 8 home dogs. (did not count favs because current strat is dogs). That surprised the hell outta me.

Gonna try and see if there are certain teams in your picks YTD  that have shown a tendency to win as dogs more often than others.
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#59
Posted: 5/18/2012 12:21:17 PM

Awesome analysis, JBecks12.

In case anyone cares... OAK starts 3 hours after NYM and PIT, so if NYM and PIT games finish early enough and if NYM, PIT, CHW all win, we might see a potential hedging opportunity again today.

I will be at the Mets/Jays game tonight. For the first time I will go against the Jays and cheer for the Mets, for all of us

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#60
Posted: 5/18/2012 12:31:16 PM
QUOTEAwesome stuff JBecks

Originally Posted by JBecks12:

Err... Verlander to lose at home.

Thats what I thought when PIT came up.

Some more fun stuff:

- YTD, your individual dog pick wins are divided into 30 Away dogs vs 16 Home dogs. Which is counter intuitive in itself, but is blown away by:

- Your winning days have been due to 21 Away dogs vs 8 home dogs. (did not count favs because current strat is dogs). That surprised the hell outta me.

And when I read that, it suprised the HELL out of me also.



I'm wondering if these stats are going to change now that I am going with a new selection method.For Example>Today I am fading my normal pick method because for the last week the majority of winning games has been opposite of my picks.I will go back and forth depending on that trend or if it starts to alternate, then so will I. Time will tell. And thanks so much for your valuable and very imformative info. I love reading and acting on stuff like that.
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#61
Posted: 5/18/2012 12:37:04 PM
This is the best thread with cooperation and strategy for all.  No egos, just wins baby!!
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#62
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:04:41 PM
Looks like you have something nice going on in here, keep cashing buddy
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#63
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:06:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blind_Monkey:



I'm wondering if these stats are going to change now that I am going with a new selection method.For Example>Today I am fading my normal pick method because for the last week the majority of winning games has been opposite of my picks.I will go back and forth depending on that trend or if it starts to alternate, then so will I. Time will tell. And thanks so much for your valuable and very imformative info. I love reading and acting on stuff like that.


I think it will change the stats because the base line is different. I was kinda hoping you wouldn't tweak unless you broke your previous 4-day skid by a couple of days. Which you obviously didn't break and stayed at 4-day skid for the 2nd time ytd. It felt like the cycle is due for a sweep. Hell, it might have still changed anyway, because we are going inter-league.

Do you feel comfortable naming the 4 teams based on your previous method, just as a test? Either way, hopefully the new method will produce even better results.

I can't be sure but its possible that there are dog-days in NL and dog-days in AL (like when favs get too far ahead in number of wins to their mean of @ 60%, dogs start barking hard and revert to mean). I saw evidence of that when I tracked it for 1st 3 weeks of the season and then had to stop because couldn't devote that much time. For most people who cap based on team/player stats that might sound hocus-pocus, but I think trend bettors will understand what I am saying.

It would be interesting to see if dog picks coinciding with the dog-days can produce more sweeps.
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#64
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:33:26 PM
JBecks    

I also feel like we are near a sweep and its possible that today would have produced it. Like I said tho some days will be a fade and some days would be normal picks. I think that everyday I will post whether they are normal or a fade and if they are fade picks I will post the normal plays that would have been choosen.

Under Normal today I would have RR LAD(+116),BAL(+105),BOS(+149),MIN(+118)
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#65
Posted: 5/18/2012 2:13:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blind_Monkey:

JBecks    

Under Normal today I would have RR LAD(+116),BAL(+105),BOS(+149),MIN(+118)


Thanks for sharing that. Its funny that all those teams will play in NL stadiums today.
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#66
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:39:29 AM
It seems like under normal, you would have won one of the parlays today.
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#67
Posted: 5/19/2012 8:07:41 AM
Blind, have you thought about 1 small fav in the mix. the other day like 11 of 15 games were dogs but you won just 1 of 4..that was the day the 1 night game didn't come in Miami lost to Atl?  BOL always  

                      
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#68
Posted: 5/19/2012 9:20:58 AM
Did 3's RR on the fade and normal sets separately. Didn't wanna miss a sweep. small 1.5u gain, but thankfully at least testing costs covered.

Normal sets' stats atm:
- loss/win = 119/25 = 4.76 (I wanna keep tracking this, so thank you sharing your normal picks on fade pick days)
- since last sweep its been 8w-52L

your current stats
- loss/win ration = 120/24 = 5
- since last sweep 7w-53L

- Your last 4-day skid was followed by 3 consecutive winning days and a full sweep on 4th day. Your most recent 4-day skid has been followed by 2 consecutive winning days so far (Normal Set).

- if you consider for a moment the 1st sweep as fluke (postponed game), and only one real sweep ytd, it happened at 13w-67L. You are currently at 25w-119L on normal set. That sweep happened 21st day into the program and it has been 16 days since.

- the normal sets' winning bet yesterday had 2 away dogs vs 1 home dog and all were played in NL stadiums. Your fade pick sets' only winning team was an AD playing in NL stadium.

- In general yesterday, 9 AL teams won vs 5 NL in the IL

- In AL stadiums 3AL and 3NL teams won. In NL stadiums 6AL teams won vs only 2 NL teams! Hmmm... Are NL teams gonna take back home turf today?

BOL
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#69
Posted: 5/19/2012 11:09:41 AM
Yup Normal hits just when I decide to switch to following my fade trend. Gratz to JBecks12 and anyone else who made the decision to Fade my Fade (LOL). You made the right call. Trend today is to pick Normal.

gillster18 At this point in my game I still believe Dogs are the way to go.

Results for Friday May 18 ML Parlays

CHW(+113),NYM(+136),PIT(+210) 1 U to Win +14.58 U= Loss
CHW(+113),NYM(+136),OAK(+103) 1 U to Win +9.2 U= Loss
CHW(+113),PIT(+210),OAK(+103) 1 U to Win +12.4 U= Loss
NYM(+136),PIT(+210),OAK(+103) 1 U to Win +13.85 U= Loss

YTD 24 Wins 120 Loss =
+49.24 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 12,825.00

Satutday May 19 ML Parlays

STL(+133),MIN(+159),SEA(+156) 1 U to Win +14.45 U
STL(+133),MIN(+159),HOU(+157) 1 U to Win +14.51 U
STL(+133),SEA(+156)HOU(+157) 1 U to Win +14.33 U
MIN(+159),SEA(+156),HOU(+157) 1 U to Win +16.04 U
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#70
Posted: 5/19/2012 11:27:46 AM
Let's get that cash today
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#71
Posted: 5/19/2012 12:06:41 PM
JBecks12. I hope you don't get too angry when I tell you this.I never thought that anyone would do an analysis  of my picks so it never dawned on me till I read you post this morning. The current base line that I am choosing from started from Apr 30. I'm so sorry for not mentioning this info earlier.
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#72
Posted: 5/19/2012 12:27:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blind_Monkey:

JBecks12. I hope you don't get too angry when I tell you this.I never thought that anyone would do an analysis  of my picks so it never dawned on me till I read you post this morning. The current base line that I am choosing from started from Apr 30. I'm so sorry for not mentioning this info earlier.


No worries. I am paying more attention to sessions after 4/28 when you started on dogs, so it shouldn't affect any possible inference by much. And more data added, dilutes any dated outliers.

This is fun for me, and if it helps us all get more money even better. if at any point you feel that the analysis is distracting or influencing your picks please let me know and I will stop posting it. Last thing any of us want is to screw with what's working, and that is your picks.

Yesterday, I just thought that from the trends your normal picks were working, just needed me to be patient, so I did RR on normal as well.

Next, I am trying to analyze if your winning day dogs, won or lost the day before (irrespective of as a fav or dog the day before) and if there is a trend there. Just a prelim quick look says the winning day dogs won the day before by at least 2 to 1 ratio. So while the public expects the other team to win next day, your dog pick actually wins again. I did not expect that (because like public I am a square LOL)

BOL today.
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#73
Posted: 5/19/2012 7:07:27 PM
Gonna do a small Tex hedge. Hope Hou wins.
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#74
Posted: 5/19/2012 10:10:43 PM

tailed again, letting it ride tonight with the cards

A-i like the odds

B-HA game isnt quite done

Thanks bud if this hits...you have a place to stay when you come to Florida...

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#75
Posted: 5/19/2012 10:23:29 PM
thank you blind monkey.  Came home too late to hedge the Houston game and had to squeeze through the ninth.  Thank you baseball Gods for the dp.  Now I will sweat the St. L./LA game when I cudda, shudda, or wudda hedged but did not.  3 parlays riding on this one game but heck, would not have had the opportunity if not for you.  What the heck.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Already lost on Bode and Serena withdrew in Italy.
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