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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 11 Picks and Rankings
NFL_Sharp send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 11/16/2012 1:20:19 AM
Just some interesting info: Including tonight's game, teams with a higher overall ranking than their opponent in my system are 68-30-1 (69.4%) straight up this year, beginning in week 4 when my system is operable. Included in that number is underdogs who rank higher than their opponent, which are 17-13 (56.7%) straight up so far this season -(note that I included Denver @ SD as a dog - although the game ended a PK, it began as SD favored so I went that direction). Those numbers include games with quarterback changes that should be omitted (Quinn for KC who was ranked higher than TB week 6 is one I noticed) and do not include HFA in any way. I've read that the best predictive model, which includes HFA, can be right only 75-80% of the time - so I'm happy about my rankings being at 69.4% while not even including HFA (which should account for around 7%) or injuries. Trying to add HFA in the simplest way possible, I found the record of home teams ranked higher than their opponent in my system to be 37-12 (75.5%). Just thought these numbers were interesting and helped assure my confidence in the system - wanted to share them. All of these wins/losses were measured against closing lines.

The only dogs ranked higher than their opponents this week are Cleveland, Carolina, and Pittsburgh (although the QB situation in Pitt should be noted).
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#27
Posted: 11/16/2012 2:35:11 AM

Overall Record:  14-9, +6.95 units

But 7 plays so far this week?  Did you just start 3 weeks ago?

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#28
Posted: 11/16/2012 2:47:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Raiders22:

Overall Record:  14-9, +6.95 units

But 7 plays so far this week?  Did you just start 3 weeks ago?


Yeah, I started posting Week 8.
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#29
Posted: 11/18/2012 4:10:50 PM
Adding Denver -7 for 1 unit
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#30
Posted: 11/18/2012 8:06:59 PM
Today: 7-0-1, +9.90 units

Overall: 21-9-1, +16.85 units
Sides: 19-8-1
Totals: 2-1
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#31
Posted: 11/19/2012 2:50:52 PM
For those interested:  San Francisco would be a play tonight if Smith were playing.  The under would have been a play as well.  But with both QBs out, I won't be playing either.  I have Chicago's run game at 4.55 yards per carry tonight and SF's at 5.28.  But those numbers are likely to be off with both teams stacking the box more, in my opinion.  Chicago has the advantage on the pass rush, and I don't trust a rookie QB under those conditions.  If forced to take a side, I'd go Chicago +3.5 or more.  But it wouldn't be a play based on the system.

Early plays for next week should be up shortly.  A lot of QB situations out there to monitor.
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#32
Posted: 11/19/2012 4:51:18 PM
Great week Sharp! 
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#33
Posted: 11/19/2012 5:21:50 PM

Congrats on a great weekend!

I enjoy reading your analysis - Tonights matchup should be interesting as  I can't remember the last time where both teams are without their starting QB for the first time - i think if Smith were playing and I could get CHI at +7, that would be the play, but with both starting qb's out, i actually think SF is the play here - and I feel much more confident betting on a solid SF team than an overrated Chicago team

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the1andonly12
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#34
Posted: 11/19/2012 5:25:40 PM
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