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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL backtests
ejackson send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ejackson
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#1
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:13:34 PM
This is my post from SBR forum 02-10-12.

Out of interest i did a backtest for some NHL systems. I don't use these systems, i don't know if anybody uses these systems, i was just backtesting the 3 game road chase system and did other systems at the same time. I backtested all postlockout seasons (starting with season 05-06) with this years season included. There are some minor mistakes as this was done with paper and pencil but that can't change the %.

1. 3 game road chase (a team goes on a 3 or more road games in a row) - ML bets (NO +1,5 PL!)
A: 492-622 (44 %)
B: 295-325 (48 %)
C: 135-191 (41 %)

2. 3 game road chase - road team will lose one game out of 3 in regulation (that means you bet on home teams - ML bets can get very expensice so i did a backtest on regulation lines)
A: 480-634 (43 %)
B: 263-371 (41 %)
C: 160-212 (43 %)

3. 3 game home chase (a team has 3 or more games at home in a row) - to win one game out of three in regualtion
A: 484-598 (45 %)
B: 267-327 (45 %)
C: 130-201 (39 %)

4. 3 game home chase - to win one game out of three ML
A: 607-474 (56 %)
B: 254-220 (54 %)
C: 114-107 (52 %)

5. 3 game home chase - home team will lose one game out of three 
A: 474-608 (44 %)
B: 258-352 (42 %)
C: 129-222 (37 %)
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#2
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:18:36 PM
Just putting it out there if anybody has any use of it.
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#3
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:28:36 PM
Some O/U streak chase stats (betting opposite of the steak):

2 game UNDER chase:
- playing only A bets: 939-1071 (47 %)
- playing A and B: 1478-1603 (48 %)
- playing A, B and C: 1734-1879 (48 %)

2 game OVER chase:
A:965-884 (52 %)
A,B: 1429-1304 (52 %)
A,B,C: 1645-1508 (52 %)

2 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 1767-82


 
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#4
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:30:24 PM
Seems like way too many loses on a 3 game chase. It would seem that the play would be system 4, but run each game (A, B C) on it's own labby line. 52% or more on a labby line is a money making system.
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#5
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:34:00 PM
3 game UNDER chase:
A:538-526 (51 %)
A,B: 788-802 (50 %)
A,B,C: 919-947 (49 %)
A,B,C,D:989-1022 (49 %)
A,B,C,D,E:1029-1057 (49 %)

3 game OVER chase:
A:458-420 (52 %)
A,B: 679-619 (52 %)
A,B,C: 796-701 (53 %)
A,B,C,D: 845-734 (54 %)

3 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 845-33
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#6
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:37:12 PM
4 game UNDER chase:
A:249-277 (47 %)
A,B: 376-427 (47 %)
A,B,C: 449-504 (47 %)
A,B,C,D:491-539 (48 %)
A,B,C,D,E:509-556 (48 %)

4 game OVER chase:
A:222-200 (53 %)
A,B: 337-285 (54 %)
A,B,C: 386-321 (55 %)
A,B,C,D: 406-337 (55 %)

4 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 406-16
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#7
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:40:08 PM
5 game UNDER chase:
A:129-150 (46 %)
A,B: 200-229 (47 %)
A,B,C: 243-265 (48 %)
A,B,C,D:262-282 (48 %)
A,B,C,D,E:270-291 (48 %)

5 game OVER chase:
A:115-84 (58 %)
A,B: 164-119 (58 %)
A,B,C: 184-134 (58 %)
A,B,C,D: 193-140 (58 %)

5 game A, B, C, D OVER chase: 193-6
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#8
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:40:32 PM
Here you go, thats all i got.
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#9
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:47:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Seems like way too many loses on a 3 game chase. It would seem that the play would be system 4, but run each game (A, B C) on it's own labby line. 52% or more on a labby line is a money making system.

System 1 is plus money system - i'm guesing that average odds are +130ish. So 48 % is not that bad right. 
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#10
Posted: 9/12/2013 12:53:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ejackson:


System 1 is plus money system - i'm guesing that average odds are +130ish. So 48 % is not that bad right. 

True, you can make some money at 48% on +130 odds.

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Bart_ send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#11
Posted: 9/12/2013 4:09:27 PM
Just to be clear, 1-5 are for teams playing 3+ consecutive home or road games, right?
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#12
Posted: 9/16/2013 3:39:03 PM
Yes
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