Superbowl line GB -3.5?

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Superbowl line GB -3.5?
Dead_Presidents PM Dead_Presidents
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:12:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Hollywoodturf:

Originally Posted by walktheline] Yeah, are you on planet earth? What in the blue hell makes you think they would ever give the Steelers 3 full points, let alone the hook?

What makes Green Bay a better team to begin with? Get your head out of your behind.
[/Quote]   What makes Greenbay the better team is SACK PRESSURE, PENALTYS & PASSING YARDS ALLOWED!! Now can I put my head back in my behind?

Steelers rank #1 in the NFL in sacks and yards per pass.  Sounds like you know your garbage.

LakeTahoeKid PM LakeTahoeKid
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:21:35 PM
Pitt opened PK +110 at Pinnacle during the game.
The more people saw the Jets shredding the Steelers' "prevent defense" in the 2nd H, the more the line went > Green Bay.
It's now Pitt +2.5 +105.
I am now contemplating my initial Pitt SB victory after what the Jets were able to do in the 2nd H, passing wise (e.g. Seattle exposing Chi-town, 2nd H). Remember, both AZ and Seattle had plenty of opportunities to win the game outright vs Pitt in their SB match-ups.
However, if the line goes to 3, Pitt should definitely be considered. (Barring any major injuries.)
Note: I believe they were 6.5 pt faves vs AZ and 4 pt faves vs Seattle.
JohnnyY83 PM JohnnyY83
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:26:32 PM


GB won THREE road games vs the TOP three seeds.

Pitt was life and death at home vs the BOTTOM two seeds.

GB is clearly the hotter team, getting much public love and playing great. They should be favored

daysbtwin PM daysbtwin
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:27:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LakeTahoeKid:

However, if the line goes to 3, Pitt should definitely be considered.

 Umm no garbage sherlock

 Pitt should definitely be considered

daysbtwin PM daysbtwin
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:29:12 PM

Pit should be favored you moron

walktheline PM walktheline
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:30:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JohnnyY83:



GB won THREE road games vs the TOP three seeds.

Pitt was life and death at home vs the BOTTOM two seeds.

GB is clearly the hotter team, getting much public love and playing great. They should be favored






If you feel that the Falcons and Bears are better than the Ravens and Jets, you need a Pap smear.
PULLA PM PULLA
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:44:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by walktheline:






If you feel that the Falcons and Bears are better than the Ravens and Jets, you need a Pap smear.


The Falcons beat the Ravens, and the point could definitely be argued.
PULLA PM PULLA
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:45:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by daysbtwin:

Pit should be favored you moron



Do you always feel the need to overcompensate and disrespect others?  The person was just giving their opinion.  Show some respect.  Thanks.
LakeTahoeKid PM LakeTahoeKid
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:45:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by daysbtwin:

Pit should be favored you moron

WTF are you talking about??

Then why in the darn weren't YOU the one posting WHEN THEY OPENED pk +110!?
You chastise me for re-evaluating my original thought--when the line is in a questionable outcome parameter (< or > 3 with 2 evenly matched teams).
They didn't set the line at PK for no reason, MORON!

daysbtwin PM daysbtwin
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Posted: 1/23/2011 11:48:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PULLA:



Do you always feel the need to overcompensate and disrespect others?  The person was just giving their opinion.  Show some respect.  Thanks.

I sometimes feel the need to disrespect sheep. PIT ML

LakeTahoeKid PM LakeTahoeKid
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Posted: 1/24/2011 12:00:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by daysbtwin:

I sometimes feel the need to disrespect sheep. PIT ML

A "sheep." I am hardly a sheep.
Actually I am an activist, politically. The govt-corporatocracy takeover is our (US citizens') biggest threat, along with terrorism.

By the way, take Pitt +2.5 +105 rather than +126 on the ML (assuming you are betting at Pinnacle). A mathematically better bet, obviously.




JHaef28 PM JHaef28
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Posted: 1/24/2011 12:36:19 AM
I guessed the line would be GB -1.5, pretty close.  See it at -2.5
walktheline PM walktheline
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Posted: 1/24/2011 12:48:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LakeTahoeKid:

A "sheep." I am hardly a sheep.
Actually I am an activist, politically. The govt-corporatocracy takeover is our (US citizens') biggest threat, along with terrorism.

By the way, take Pitt +2.5 +105 rather than +126 on the ML (assuming you are betting at Pinnacle). A mathematically better bet, obviously.






On first though, I would agree with that. I don't know how large of a sample size you would need to figure it out, maybe two seasons? I would make a snap judgment and say that +2.5 at +105 is better than +126 (that number seems a bit low) but I wonder if the points out weight the +.20 cents? 
LakeTahoeKid PM LakeTahoeKid
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:05:19 AM
The points (+2.5 +105) outweigh the payback on the ML @ +126.
Buying 2.5 points from a ML @ +126 would equate to less than a +2.5 +105 payback. My book(s) are 10 cents for every point purchased.
Figuring the usual 6-8 cents with Pinny, it would convert to around +110 on the ML in comparison.
Individual (non-related) probabilities are basically in the eye of the beholder. There is no sample size to directly match-up these to teams (i.e. Pittsburgh) into a mathematical equation from PK to a ML.
Just basic "Pinnacle" math points to Pitt +2.5 +105 over Pitt ML +126. It's a no-brainer.



walktheline PM walktheline
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:16:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LakeTahoeKid:

The points (+2.5 +105) outweigh the payback on the ML @ +126.
Buying 2.5 points from a ML @ +126 would equate to less than a +2.5 +105 payback. My book(s) are 10 cents for every point purchased.
Figuring the usual 6-8 cents with Pinny, it would convert to around +110 on the ML in comparison.
Individual (non-related) probabilities are basically in the eye of the beholder. There is no sample size to directly match-up these to teams (i.e. Pittsburgh) into a mathematical equation from PK to a ML.
Just basic "Pinnacle" math points to Pitt +2.5 +105 over Pitt ML +126. It's a no-brainer.





You would think so, but the priced charged per point/half point doesn't have anything to do with how valuable those points are. It still costs you the same amount to buy from 7 to 7.5 as it does 1 to 1.5 in most cases.

It wouldn't be about the two teams matching up, but how often historically those points would have made a difference in the outcome of a wager vs the +.2x you would gain on the moneyline.
LakeTahoeKid PM LakeTahoeKid
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:30:32 AM
walktheline, +130 is what I meant to type. However +129 is more of an accurate figure.
Good luck with whatever side you choose.
Based on past Super Bowl results (small sample size), I would surmise it will NOT fall within the 0 to 2.5 Pitt loss.
But over a large W/L historical NFL point differential pattern...give the the +2.5! (Lost too many 1-pt games.)
But I am waiting for the key # 3!

LakeTahoeKid PM LakeTahoeKid
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:43:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by walktheline:



You would think so, but the priced charged per point/half point doesn't have anything to do with how valuable those points are. It still costs you the same amount to buy from 7 to 7.5 as it does 1 to 1.5 in most cases.

It wouldn't be about the two teams matching up, but how often historically those points would have made a difference in the outcome of a wager vs the +.2x you would gain on the moneyline.

Like minds think alike!
I take so long to hunt and peck--under the influence--that I didn't read this until after I posted.
Buying off of 3 or 7 is 20 cents (off-shore), and most books in Nevada won't even sell them.
Let's just hope we're both on the same victorious side and that it lives up to the over-anticipated hype.
JTFinn PM JTFinn
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:55:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JohnnyY83:



GB won THREE road games vs the TOP three seeds.

Pitt was life and death at home vs the BOTTOM two seeds.

GB is clearly the hotter team, getting much public love and playing great. They should be favored

The two "Bottom Seeds" Balt & NY were much better than the Colts & Chiefs.  That statement means nothing.

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