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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Merry XMAS people
curtis07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
curtis07
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#1
Posted: 6/11/2012 10:21:14 PM
First thing I will say is I hate OKC...cant stand them...hate harden..hate westbrook....i have not bet okc once all year...when i think they r the right side i simply dont play them....that being said

Lets break it down
Home Court :  Adv OKC
Coaching:  Adv OKC
PG :  Adv OKC
SG: Wade vs Sefelosha-Harden ( we will be generous and say even, but the way Wade is playing OKC has an advantage) not to mention Wade is hurt
SF: Big ADV Miami ( lets not hate on Lebron, dudes a beast, a freak he can defend, rebound, score, pass, most complete player in the NBA and im not a fan of lebron at all, but i think durant will struggle against lebron and lebron will have his way
PF-C: I will combine these two cause of matchups...I think we will see Ibaka defensively on Bosh and Perkins on Halsem...
We all realize how important bosh is for Miami...that being said Ibaka will have his way...his physicality will give bosh a lot of problems....
Bench: Obviously very short rotations here, and I think the home team will have the advantage here (as benches usually do)

Miami has lost home games to Indiana and Boston, OKC undefeated at home....so the 2-3-2 hurts Miami as the pressure to win 3 straight in Miami will get to them....its just too much.....obviously i believe OKC will be up 2-0 headed to south beach.....i dont see Miami winning Game 2 ( that would be the one to steal)

In my humble opinion Lebron can outscore Durant by 10-12 and wont matter...the more Lebron scores the more the others struggle.....I think OKC will gladly let Lebron get his and not let Bosh and Wade get going.....
OKC is a better team....Miami has been down twice in the playoffs...and both times had to steal an away game to avoid going down 3-1 or being eliminated...they did it because they were playing inferior teams...OKC is not an inferior team..they wont come back on OKC once they go down....
Miami beats a Boston team in 7 who almost lost to the 8 seeded 76ers....this is a big step up in class for Miami...
As for OKC i actually think its a step down as I do think the Spurs were the best team in the NBA....

Game 1: OKC
Game 2: OKC
Game 3 : Miami
Game 4: OKC
Game 5: ?
Game 6: if not in 5 this will be the close out one...wont go 7

most importantly thunder a team of destiny....


OKC to win championship 10 k  - OKC -4.5 (5 K)
odds now -170 from -150 saturday night and im seeing 5s everywhere not 4.5....betting pretty split


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curtis07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 6/11/2012 10:39:35 PM
also Spain -120 to win Group

they will beat Ireland and Croatia.....Italy will struggle with Croatia even if they do win both Spain will win the group on goal differential...

bet it big
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ApocalypseLater send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 6/11/2012 11:27:23 PM
agree with every part of your write-up... in fact, i agree with it so strongly, that i went and put a small wager on Spain to win their group, just on principle...


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curtis07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:34:16 PM
ApocalypseLater thanks buddy

ill give you another small wager worth a shot....russia to advance 1st and czech republic to advance 2nd pays 380......
Russia and czech republic are the 2 best teams...only reason we are getting these odds is cause czech republic lost 4-1 to russia and poland the host is in this group....if they werent the host they would not have been in this competition cause they would not have qualified...
i see russia with 9 points....and czech with 6 pts...poland and greece should not win a game.....
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ct1016 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ct1016
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#5
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:39:30 PM

Nice write up but you left off a very important measurement to assess

DEFENSE....edge Miami

LBJ is ALL NBA 1st team on defense and D Wade leads all guard in blocked shots.......Miami's strength is the OKC strength....perimeter play vs perimeter defense

Yes, OKC has Ibaka....and sefalosis.....but Miami has LBJ, Wade, Anthony, Battier and Chalmers and Haslem and excellent miss of speed on perimeter, shot blocking and move your feet draw the charge defense in the league

Defense wins titles...I actually like Miami to shock the world (lol) and split in OKC...then win 2 @ home and come back to OKC up 3 games to 2.....if OKC is strong like you say then they win both games at home to win it....but I say with LBJ smelling a title....they will get that 1 extra win in OKC and get the ring for the king.

Also, I do like wade, bosh and lBJ > over westbrook, harden and durant.......stars win out..and the heats 3 olympic stars & US all stars will beat OKC 2 olyhmpic stars & 2 all stars

I think miami will play their 3 guys heavy minutes and so will okc so the bench (depth_ measurement is over-blown)

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curtis07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:46:36 PM
ct1016.....thanks buddy

you bring up very valid points....seems like Miami is ur play and I respect that and wish you good luck my man....

I do think Miami is the better defensive team.....but Miami has not played an offensive team like OKC....we all remember the boston -76ers high 70s games.....point being boston struggled to score against philly and they scored a lot more against miami....OKC played an offensive machine in San Antonio and did alright....I think OKC will still be able to get to high 90s and Miami will struggle to get to low 90s...and thats the way the game has to go for Miami to have a chance a 190 type game cause if its a high scoring game we all know OKC will win.....

good luck 


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ct1016 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#7
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:53:44 PM

Yeah, I am a LBJ guy

Of course, teams win titles not individuals (team always beat star)

That being said, I think Boston is the Heat arch nemesis....you have to throw that series out......

Also, from 2 games into the Indy series up to Game 5 of the Boston series ------- there was no BOSH

I think Bosh makes a HUGE difference with Miami's offense...and they will score more fluidly than everyone thinks as Bosh continues to get back into rhythm hitting that open jumper

I am waiting for the move where he pump fakes it and goes to the hoop and throws it down....thats where he got hurt in the indy series....and that move (when made) will be symbolic and signal that Bosh is 100%

Even if he does not make that signature move - I think he still is more than capable of spreading the floor and nailing that shot.

Also, as good as Parker is...I think Miami will be the best transition team that OKC will have faced....

 

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