Posted: 12/11/2009 6:54:18 PM
This game is going to be a slugfest.
I feel about as good as I can about ODU +5.5. I don't have a choice considering I locked it in late last night before the weird line move. I think it's the best side on a crappy board. My math loves ODU too.
I usually do not take the team that I think CAN get blown out, but I'll make an exception here. If Dayton starts rattling off the highlight reel dunks and they make a few threes in front of the home crowd, this will be a long night for ODU.
It takes some programs time to transition from "hunter" to "hunted" (I.e., Butler, Clemson) and I think you may be starting to see that out of Dayton this year. They tend to rush their offense in big games, take bad shots and rely too much on the three-ball (the Ga. Tech game comes to mind - which they won. They also had their chances against 'Nova). They are not playing like the experienced team that they are.
This is a big game for ODU and I think we'll see a good effort from them. ODU has been trying to get their program over the hump for a few years now and tonight is a good night to do that. They bring 5 starters back and they have a big team that can handle Dayton's athletes. They generate a fair number of turnovers and Dayton tends to turn it over in big games with their propensity to look for the spectacular play. I can't see Dayton beating them badly on the inside either.
ODU needs to get off to a good start and contain Fabrizius behind the arc. If ODU continues to take away the three, which they have done well so far this year, they will win the game.
Small play for me tonight.
BTW. . . I'm crushing tomorrow.