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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Write-up on ODU/Dayton
BandosWB
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#1
Posted: 12/11/2009 4:25:37 PM
Posted this on Professional's thread but just decided to throw it out there for public consumption.

ODU at Dayton:

What I see, numbers only, is that ODU is the play here.  The only factors in Dayton favor are:
1. SOS - 73 to 184
Even here the overall numbers are deceiving as the non conference is 87 to 126 - much closer
2. ODU has Gtown on deck
3. Home court

If you are talking about skill at the game of basketball, it is all ODU:
1. They should dominate the glass
O v D %
Dayton O 34% v ODU D allow only 29%
ODU O 42% (!!!) v D 33%
2. Win turnover battle
ODU gets turnovers on almost 1/4 of possessions and dayton gives it up close to that at 22%
Dayton does force turnovers at 24%, but ODu only coughs it up at 21%
3. Dayton scores by jumposhots as they score by the three and the jumper and rarely get to the line, so does ODU - unfortunately for Dayton ODU was last year and is even better this year at defending just that.
4. ODU has only lost to top 50 D's - Dayton ranks 107.  BUT Dayton has played some pretty talented Offensive teams  so they should ne ranked higher

Overall, I probably don't play it but if I did, ODU is the play with the points. Especially with the RLM  - VAST majority of bets on Dayton, majority of money (based on the line going to 4.5) is on ODU.

GL with your play
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UNCforever
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#2
Posted: 12/11/2009 4:35:58 PM

Here is the problem though ODU has yet to play for 40 minutes against a high quality opponent. The last 5 minutes of the game will be owned by DAY and if this is a tight game ODU will end up losing by 10+. Straight from the site...

 

Dayton has played its best basketball this season in the final five minutes of regulation, out-scoring its opponents 88-62. The Flyers are shooting 25-of-54 (.463) from the floor, 9-of-23 (.391) from beyond the arc and have a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio (16 assists and seven turnovers). Defensively, UD is limiting opponents to 15-of-38 shooting (.395), 2-of-12 from three (.167) and have forced 15 turnovers in that span.

 

With the teams they have played this is amazing. They have played some top notch competition. False steam on this game also.

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BandosWB
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#3
Posted: 12/11/2009 4:48:28 PM
Question UNC:
What do you mean by "False steam"?

Thanks for the input.
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#4
Posted: 12/11/2009 4:55:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BandosWB:

Question UNC:
What do you mean by "False steam"?

Thanks for the input.

 

I have followed this closely over the last year or so and these are type of spots that have cost me a ton of money. Anyways when a big public play is gettting hit hard with the percentages we see and it drops 1 to 2 points+ 6+ hours before tip it is typically a false line move. The books only option to even out the money is to drop it. By raising DAY to -8 people are going to follow the line. But by dropping it early they see the RLM and think its sharp but its the books playing mind games. Line movements only mean somethnig a half hour or so before tip . I could be way off but I am 3-1 in college hoops so far picking these out this year with ZONA being the last one.  Hope that helps.

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#5
Posted: 12/11/2009 4:55:59 PM
I call it the Headfake..
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#6
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:03:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UNCforever:

I call it the Headfake..



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BandosWB
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#7
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:15:01 PM
Thanks.
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#8
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:17:32 PM
Dayton's won 21 in a row at home.  ODU is not stopping that streak.
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#9
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:49:50 PM
One thing I really like about this game is ODU is ranked 16 on Pomeroy Ratings while Dayton is 91. The only thing that worries me is home court advantage but I have ODU as my biggest spread bet and I also got them at +220 on the ML so hoping for best!
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#10
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:52:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UNCforever:

 

I have followed this closely over the last year or so and these are type of spots that have cost me a ton of money. Anyways when a big public play is gettting hit hard with the percentages we see and it drops 1 to 2 points+ 6+ hours before tip it is typically a false line move. The books only option to even out the money is to drop it. By raising DAY to -8 people are going to follow the line. But by dropping it early they see the RLM and think its sharp but its the books playing mind games. Line movements only mean somethnig a half hour or so before tip . I could be way off but I am 3-1 in college hoops so far picking these out this year with ZONA being the last one.  Hope that helps.



shhhhhhhhhhh
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jmilrod
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#11
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:54:47 PM
Dayton (-3.5 line @ legends.com )=
Old Diminiowhoo??
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#12
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:58:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UNCforever:

I call it the Headfake..

i love it. GL tonight
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Dblduce5178
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#13
Posted: 12/11/2009 5:59:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UNCforever:

 

I have followed this closely over the last year or so and these are type of spots that have cost me a ton of money. Anyways when a big public play is gettting hit hard with the percentages we see and it drops 1 to 2 points+ 6+ hours before tip it is typically a false line move. The books only option to even out the money is to drop it. By raising DAY to -8 people are going to follow the line. But by dropping it early they see the RLM and think its sharp but its the books playing mind games. Line movements only mean somethnig a half hour or so before tip . I could be way off but I am 3-1 in college hoops so far picking these out this year with ZONA being the last one.  Hope that helps.

You are dead on my friend...when i tell my wagering buddies stuff like this they call me crazy till it wins.
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Daddy_Large
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#14
Posted: 12/11/2009 6:54:18 PM

This game is going to be a slugfest.

I feel about as good as I can about ODU +5.5. I don't have a choice considering I locked it in late last night before the weird line move.  I think it's the best side on a crappy board.   My math loves ODU too.

 I usually do not take the team that I think CAN get blown out, but I'll make an exception here.  If Dayton starts rattling off the highlight reel dunks and they make a few threes in front of the home crowd, this will be a long night for ODU.  

It takes some programs time to transition from "hunter" to "hunted" (I.e., Butler, Clemson) and I think you may be starting to see that out of Dayton this year.  They tend to rush their offense in big games, take bad shots and rely too much on the three-ball (the Ga. Tech game comes to mind - which they won.  They also had their chances against 'Nova).  They are not playing like the experienced team that they are.

This is a big game for ODU and I think we'll see a good effort from them.  ODU has been trying to get their program over the hump for a few years now and tonight is a good night to do that.  They bring 5 starters back and they have a big team that can handle Dayton's athletes.  They generate a fair number of turnovers and Dayton tends to turn it over in big games with their propensity to look for the spectacular play.  I can't see Dayton beating them badly on the inside either.

ODU needs to get off to a good start and contain Fabrizius behind the arc.  If ODU continues to take away the three, which they have done well so far this year, they will win the game.
 
Small play for me tonight.
 
BTW. . . I'm crushing tomorrow.
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Posted: 12/11/2009 7:24:21 PM
I like the writeup but question one thing:

ODU has Georgetown on deck

I know they have them the next game, but I don't think that factors in at all when they play a quality opponent tonight in Dayton. Also, I don't think they will be "looking ahead" to GTOWN considering they have 8 days until that game.

I like the on deck and lookahead angles, but means nothing if the game is a week out. Now, if they play a quality opponent within say 3-5 days, then it is a look. But a week out?

Good Luck
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BandosWB
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#16
Posted: 12/11/2009 7:38:33 PM
Good point craig - thanks for noticing that.
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#17
Posted: 12/11/2009 9:09:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by tsw:

Dayton's won 21 in a row at home.  ODU is not stopping that streak.

 

Actually tonight's win makes it 24 in a row at home...Props also to UNCforever, he was right on with the "false steam" call.

 

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BandosWB
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#18
Posted: 12/11/2009 9:29:44 PM
Yup - glad I stayed away.
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Daddy_Large
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#19
Posted: 12/11/2009 10:18:06 PM

Dayton is a tough team home or away.  They scrap.

This game was lost in the first half when ODU couldn't convert all of those turns into points. . .

Back at it tomorrow and congrats to everyone who had the winner tonight.

 

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