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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Money Ball & KEYMetrics, Sunday 10.07.12
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:21:13 AM

Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

2012 Playoffs: 0-1, -5 Units

The Week: 4-9-1, -17.85 Units All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”

Minor adjustment again today as yesterday I did not start a playoff tally and the Cards-Braves under loss was recorded with the regular season. My bad. NBFD.

Tigers -153 (F5), -150 (FG) (Milone / Fister)

Many of us would like to see the A’s continue a storybook season and go all the way, but I think they are going to have to pull a three game sweep at home to go any further. Tommy Milone is, imho, a really poor choice for the start today. West Coast lefties are always suspect when pitching in the more hitter friendly parks anywhere east of the coast. If Milone’s road era looks bad already at 4.83, you also better be aware that it is 5.75 east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Doug Fister only pitched in two pitcher friendly West Coast parks this year and both starts came early in the season, but he surrendered only one earned run in 13 innings for an 0.69 era. I also love that 2.77:1 GB/FB ratio Fister combines with his 3.70:1 K/BB ratio. It is not hard to see why he is sometimes overlooked and undervalued on the same staff with Justin Verlander, but the credentials are certainly there. Given the KeyMetric pitching advantage of 76.1/68.6, and a slight offensive advantage at 32.3/29.7 plus HFA, I expect the Tigers to romp home with the win fairly easily.

Yankees -157 (F5), -155 (FG) (Sabathia / Hammel)

I can’t compliment Jason Hammel enough on a fine season after escaping Coors Field for another, though lesser, hitter’s park. Unfortunately the Orioles best is not up to the standards of the Yankees best. Sabathia has “been there, done that” and knows all he needs to know about facing another ace in a playoff format. I expect the Orioles to see the real Sabathia today. I am well aware the Yankees dropped two of three Sabathia starts at Baltimore this year, but the dream has to end sometime soon as luck runs out. The Orioles played hard and I don’t want to diminish that in any way, but they were helped greatly by the Rays injuries and the collapses of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, as well as that incredible 29-9 record in one run games. A fine season, yes, championship caliber, no.  

I may be back with a play on the Reds / Giants game later, not sure yet and won’t guess at the line anyway.

BOL

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depbmoc
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#2
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:25:34 AM

good luck KE

i am oppposite on both today , which doesnt please me.

i will also play the reds again today .

i also have the nats winning

 

good luck buddy , thanks for all your valuable threads this year

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crazy1464
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#3
Posted: 10/7/2012 10:50:52 AM
LOVE THE PLAYS! GOOD LUCK!
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#4
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:06:09 AM

Orioles were 9-9 vs the Yankee's....runs almost dead even...

In 3 starts the Fat Man had a 6.83 ERA vs our Birds....

Pitching in th rain won't be easy for Fat Albert....I'll be yelling at his fat behind all night long...-160 is an insult to our team..If Hammell's OK,this will be a 1 run game...Good luck with that scenario....

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#5
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:08:22 AM
Good luck Key love the Tigers play not so much the O's but best of luck to you sir
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cardifkill
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#6
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:08:32 AM
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#7
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:11:57 AM
Fading on both but GL today
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KeyElement
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#8
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:21:30 AM
Shrimp, I know you are a big Orioles homer but I calls em as I sees em. It ain't personal.
cjm2008, don't ever wish a guy good luck if you are fading him.

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#9
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:36:44 AM
Hit with Det. Yesterday but lost on SF.  Will be on Det. Again! Thanks Key!
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crazy1464
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#10
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:03:52 PM
giants also step up tonight with a win!
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#11
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:04:24 PM
Nice win with Detroit
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#12
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:23:55 PM
If the Orioles were helped by the Blue Jays and Red Sox so were the Yankees...

Both the O's and Yankees were within a game for over a month. Stop downplaying the O's and discrediting what they did when they were pretty much equals with the Yankees all year long.

Where the Yankees are worse the O's are better and vice versa. It all evens out in the end and the Yankees should have lost all 3 CC starts if not for some luck in the only 2 extra inning games teh O's lost all year long with shitty calls going the Yankees way.

Those 2 games have the correct calls and the O's win the division and have the best record in the AL while having a series lead of 11-7 vs the Yanks.

Those are facts.

GL with play. I thnk you are taking the Yankees at a much inflated price. O's series also has incredible value at basically +195
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#13
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:25:51 PM
BOL!
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#14
Posted: 10/8/2012 1:14:09 AM
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depbmoc
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#15
Posted: 10/8/2012 3:47:22 AM
I knew I was in trouble when u saw I was opposite on both 
Good job man
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TheBuddah
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#16
Posted: 10/8/2012 12:50:15 PM

Key - just for the record - I went back to sagarins website and looked at the era for milone and fister and yes you were correct about fister being better in terms of era.   I don't look at the era - I look at the rank of the pitcher along with a couple of other data points to come up with a numerical ranking.  Rank wise - milone 23 and fister was 44 (lower the better - thus my comment milone was better) - the KEY was we were on the same side regarding Detroit - I avoided the Yankees game.  BOL to you today.

TB 

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KeyElement
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#17
Posted: 10/8/2012 1:29:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

Key - just for the record - I went back to sagarins website and looked at the era for milone and fister and yes you were correct about fister being better in terms of era.   I don't look at the era - I look at the rank of the pitcher along with a couple of other data points to come up with a numerical ranking.  Rank wise - milone 23 and fister was 44 (lower the better - thus my comment milone was better) - the KEY was we were on the same side regarding Detroit - I avoided the Yankees game.  BOL to you today.

TB 

What you may find interesting is that one of my KeyMetric formulas, although created entirely in a different manner, comes out close to Sagarin's npera. I have no idea why, nor do I now how he creates those numbers, but I find it strange how close to mine they are and mine are a part of one of my best totals formulas. Go figure.


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TheBuddah
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#18
Posted: 10/8/2012 1:53:58 PM
it is interesting how we come up with a variety of ways to analyze things.  There are little nit noids that we come up with - for example, if you go to donbest.com and look at the opening lines for mlb - usually the line will say - 115 or - 170 etc. However, if the line happens to be a + 110 or +135 etc.  and it's the away team - the away team won every game this year with the exception of the mets and Phillies the last week or so of the season.
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#19
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:08:47 PM
So what you are saying is the line showed the dog line, not the fav line?
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#20
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:19:01 PM
TheBuddah  Does your post regarding donbest also work well with the college Football away dogs that are shown on the opening lines?
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