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[College Football] Topic: Week one |
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TRAIN69 |
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#26 Posted: 8/23/2012 6:09:48 PM Like both of the plays thus far!
bol this season LJ  |
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#27 Posted: 8/25/2012 9:00:59 PM
Adding a couple more totals for week 1:
Iowa VS Northern ILL
OVER 50
#1, I'm playing against the Iowa defense. I think the total is this low because the perception these teams will run and have solid defenses. Well, both teams run to set up the pass but the solid defenses are missing some pieces.
Next, I like Vandenburg. He'll get a look in the NFL...maybe only be a backup...but he's got next level talent.
I like NIU's offense. They'll score some points. Their QB, Lynch, had very few snaps last year: 20 attempts, 15 completions. He ran it 45 times for 5.5 YPC. Very few snaps but he did ok. His dual threat style may confuse an inexperienced Iowa DL.
Arkansas State
@ Oregon
OVER 68
Yeah, pretty much was going to auto-bet anything around this number. Oregon is going to try to cover the total by themselves.
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Arid_Torpor |
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#28 Posted: 8/25/2012 9:53:17 PM
You wanna tell me why not to jump on your Orange in week one? I know Pat Fitzgerald is a good coach, but Northwestern seems so uninspiring this year--I would've leaned Cuse giving anything less than a FG. |
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#29 Posted: 8/26/2012 11:00:52 AM
Well. Syr +1 is one of about 20 leans I'm thinking of betting this week. I like the over more than the side.
I like that NW might have a hole at DT. But is the Syr RB corp explosive this year? Jerome Smith is no longer 240, he's trimmed down to 225ish. That's good. But is he faster now that he's lost his beer pong gut? Probably. New recruit Ashton Broyld might provide some speed. Broyld is absolutely expected to make plays from day one. MArrone has been clear on that...Prince Tyson-Gully is the speed guy but also a fumbler and might only get a handful of snaps.
Apparently Phil Steels hates this NW defense. Good sign for Syracuse.
Nassib might surprise. The strength of the offense is WR and Marrone has said for the 2nd straight year that he wants to get more aggressive. OK. So far, Nassib has been conservative. The storyline of the preseason has been that he prefers to check down to the TE. Nassib will either loosen up or he'll get more snaps taken away by his backup Loeb. If that happens, duck! The garbage hits the fan.
I think Syr will have a lot of plays that are quick-passes out of the shotgun. Just an opinion. That's necessary because of the below average OL. I think Marrone spent the spring and August scheming around his OL. This D does look bad for NW so Nassib might have the time to throw downfield and exploit this new secondary.
For NW on offense, I expect Trumpy to break tackles all over the place and keep the offense ahead of the chains...3rd and short, that type of stuff. Colter should be as stress free as possible. I like NW to score a lot. If Trumpy get to the back 7, the linebackers are light...but solid in pass defense. Syr is fast at LB and they have good size. The LB corp will get an INT or 2 that will go back for a TD this year.
I'm not on Syr because I don't like the situation. NW in game one is very hard to beat for some reason. In 3 of the last 4 years, they have wins over Syr, @Vandy and @ BC in week one. (Also beat Towson but we'll toss out the BCS team.) Fitzgerald has them coming out of the gate with an attitude. They lose bowl games because teams prepared for a month to face them...that problem doesn't extend to the first gm of the season. I guess teams have their August practice and then spend one week on NW. That's how Syr prepped this season; they won't work on NW until it's game week.
I didn't get an uninspired vibe off them when I read about NW this year. I'll definitely backtrack and look at them again...try to get a read on them...
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Arid_Torpor |
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#30 Posted: 8/26/2012 1:03:06 PM
When I said NW was uninspiring, I didn't mean they'd come out flat, just that it was hard to see something to believe in. I do expect a good season from Trumpy, but beyond that, I mostly see a team that was worse than they should've been last year and lose their best weapon.
Worth pointing out about those three Northwestern wins in the opening games:
*2008 Syracuse team finished 3-9. Next two games were a 42-28 loss to Akron and a 55-13 loss to Penn State. *2010 Vanderbilt finished 2-10. Wins over Ole Miss and Eastern Michigan. *2011 Boston College finished 4-8. Their next two games after the NW loss were a 30-3 defeat @UCF and a 20-19 home loss to Duke.
You can see why I'm not snowed by the "NW comes out strong" angle.
Best of luck this year, looking forward to it |
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shakey12381 |
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#31 Posted: 8/26/2012 8:48:30 PM |
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#32 Posted: 8/27/2012 6:43:25 PM
shakey12381; Thanks, shakey.
2 more plays for now.
UCLA
@ Rice
UNDER 56
Rice runs the same offense that UCLA ran last year when they
experimented w/ the pistol and veer stuff. UCLA should be able to handle
Rice's offense.
On defense, Rice has "a new attitude and new attacking style". (Sigh...I
know...everyone attacks...humor 'em, dammit, I need these brainiacs
confident!) Maybe they can rattle a new QB?
OK, I think the situation will help Rice. The Thursday night, national
TV thing usually brings out a little more from the defense.
Tulsa
@ Iowa State +1
On this one, I admit. I'm going with the info from the preseason work done by PreSnapRead.com.
The writer believes Tulsa's OL will not be able to contain ISU's front 7.
I don't think ISU scores much either. ISU only wants to run and couldn't care less about passing. That helps ISU since Tulsa looks strongest at secondary. I'm still thinking about the under. It's tough to take the under in a Tulsa game but if it ever happens, this looks like a good spot.
I like the coaching at ISU. Though Tulsa's coach is ok. Blakenship is no Todd GRaham...of course not...he didn't leave after one yr.
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jp1lsu |
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#33 Posted: 8/27/2012 6:53:27 PM LJ,
Funny enough went through most of the same stuff last year. Mostly I found I didnt have time to make bets and then talk about them. Its not easy keeping up on here season after season. Best of luck |
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#34 Posted: 8/27/2012 6:54:18 PM
_____________________________
I still have a couple leans...none of these are plays yet.
Conn - waiting for -24. I'll buy the hook if I have to...
Illinois -10 - I thought Supo Sanni was healthy. I expected Hull, the other safety to be out. I'm not playing ILL vs an NFL QB if both safties are out. Neither one is listed on the depth chart for the WMU game. Is the coach just screwing with us or is Sanni not healthy yet?
Syr NW over 54.
Tulsa/ISU under 52
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#35 Posted: 8/27/2012 6:57:18 PM
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#36 Posted: 8/29/2012 6:17:19 PM
UMASS
@ Connecticut -24 (Didn't need to buy the hook)
I like this spot for CT. I don't think UMASS is putting any extra energy into the game...for some reason, the New England teams (CT, BC, UMASS) don't have a rivalry going. I guess no one hates like southern folk. (The rivalry/hate and the food make me wish I was southern...the rest of it would kill me.)
UMASS is building for the future. A lot of youth on the depth chart released yesterday. The coach is from the Brian Kelly coaching tree. Ask Quinn at UB how well the no huddle, uptempo offense works when Brian Kelly isn't on the sidelines yelling at everyone. They clearly don't have the...ANYTHING...to run this offense.
Uconn's defense should have fun this week.
CT is a solid veteran team. UCONN is talking about not starting slow this year. I'm hoping they don't slow down even when up by 3 TD's. I'm betting on CT's offense getting several more possessions than usual because their def caused 3 and outs.
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#37 Posted: 9/1/2012 7:04:36 AM
Last game added for week one:
Northwestern
@ Syracuse PK
Eh, completely missed the earlier numbers where Cuse was a 1 or 2 point dog.
I couldn't figure this damn defense out...why the complete breakdown last year. There was a story a couple days ago in a local paper that describes how extensive the injuries were on defense.
http://dailyorange.com/2012/08/hidden-wounds-after-a-slew-of-unpublicized-injuries-derailed-syracuse-last-year-the-program-makes-adjustments-to-stay-healthy-in-2012/
So the story...and the line moves...let me know know I'm on the right track.
So...what will Cuse fans be looking out for today?
Nassib - Take some shots, kid. Throw the ball 45 yards down field a couple times. Nassib was coached to not leave the pocket last year. that completely changes this year. He won't be Cam Newton...he'll scramble and probably get a good 35 yards a game. 35 yards (on average) is a good amount to expect. (Taking sacks into account...)
RB - Is Jerome Smith able to break one long? Can he get thru the DL and outrun the NW secondary? Probably not, he's still a run between the tackles guy. I do like this matchup because NW has new DT's this year. Prince Tyson-Gulley is the speed guy but fumbled a lot last year. The story in today's local paper is that he cured his fumble issue and now the staff has confidence in him. we'll see. Ashton Broyld. He has to be a star from day 1. It's expected by Cuse fans and the coaching staff. No pressure, kid.
WR - Sales...rusty? Lemon...100% healthy? Kobena - star at kick return last year can he step up and be a star in the WR corp? Depth? Also, TE depth? TE is an important part of Marrone's offense. If there's no talent/depth then he's only running 1/2 his offense scheme.
OL - We need that smiley face that throws up. (This smiley is as close as Covers allows.) OK, questions. Everything. Will they open holes for the rb corp? Will they give Nassib the time to take shots downfield? Will Nassib be scrambling as part of the play or running for his life? The OL is the reason the QB position has to be mobile.
I expect a lot of quick passes...shotgun formation...so he has an extra second to pick up the rush.
DL - OK, Markus Pierre Paul, you're the new JUCO speed guy. Good luck getting your hands on Colter. If he can sack this QB a couple times, Big East QB's will be a walk in the park.
DT - I actually like the DT spot...full of big, fat 300+ guys...about 6 of them. They are interchangeable...probably won't get to the QB but they'll be fresh in the 4th quarter. I expect this spot to get into the backfield late in games because of the fresh legs.
LB - Full of fast guys over 6 feet tall. "Good range" is the right phrase to describe this group. Will be good in pass coverage. Now if they were 240 lbs instead of 214, 220 and 230. I still don't like them vs 215 pound RB's.
DB - Senior CB Anderson is a lock at one CB. Who steps up on the other side? Soph Brandon Reddish, frosh Julian Whigham or frosh Wayne Morgan. Coaching staff loves these guys. CB will be strong and deep...in 2014. This year, however, very young.
Safties: Jeremi Wilkes embodies the Syr D: Tough but 5-9, 189. I'm looking to see how many snaps his backup, Eskridge gets. Wilkes may not end the year in the starting lineup.
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mistercable |
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#38 Posted: 9/1/2012 8:21:02 AM |
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nostradamus12 |
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#39 Posted: 9/1/2012 8:44:41 AM yeah it looks like Sanni and Hull are doubtful and Hawthorne is probable, maybe NIU transfer Davis gets some time...was looking at WMU u19.5 with good Illinois defense and rain/wind...need to figure out who's playing the secondary though....looks like the weather might make it up to Chicago for NIU-Iowa game..if it does that field could be a mess
leaning towards the Orange today and maybe next week +24  or so against USC, BOL today man |
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Syracuse L.J. |
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#40 Posted: 9/1/2012 1:51:19 PM
Nos - Yeah...I wrote ILL off yesterday and that's why their defense is dominating.  They are jumping on top of WMU's routes. Good coaching + good players. The team should be fine this year.
Bad news about the Over chances for NIU / Iowa. I'm not going to worry about it or buy off the game. Every time I buy off a game, the side I had won. I'll just hope for turnovers returned for TD's if the field is sloppy.
Wind, however, is bad...no way around that...
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