Messages

Forum Index : College Football : Messages
Author: [College Football] Topic: Potentially Interesting Southern Miss/South Carolina situation.
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16717
Location:
#1
Posted: 8/30/2010 7:37:22 PM
Hey, I'm no meteorologist and while this behemoth out in the Atlantic named Hurricane Earl is not expected to make landfall anywhere near South Carolina (I'm sure the game would be postponed if it did) but looking at the following map it is expected to be sitting off the coast come game time.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/tropical-depression-seven-storm-hurricane-earl-swa_2010-08-25

This is interesting to me because Tropical Storm force winds from this storm extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Even if the center of the storm is more than 200 miles away from Columbia come game time I would still think we may see some significant winds even though the sky may not have a cloud n it.

Wind is what drives totals down and keeps games low scoring because it is difficult to pass down the field, limiting big plays and also forcing teams to run the ball or do short passes which can chew the life out of the clock.

This thing is still 3 days out and this Hurricane could wobble way off into the Atlantic and not even be a factor. But with the chance of some semi-strong winds affecting play (I believe there is a large open area in one end of this stadium as well so if the wind gets in it could swirl) I think i'm going to take a stab at the Under 47. If this thing does prove to be a factor I believe this will be a great number, it may even come down and I can come over the top and shoot for a decent middle. If the storm is a complete non-factor then I'll lose the juice, so be it. It's worth a stab IMO.


Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 47


quote
Boom_Boom send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Boom_Boom
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 15917
Location: South Carolina
#2
Posted: 8/30/2010 7:54:31 PM
Don't put a lot of stock into it.... I live around these parts...

No Rain in the forecast..
quote
totter
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
totter
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 7142
Location: Florida
#3
Posted: 8/30/2010 9:07:22 PM
like the under here too,,storm or no storm
quote
SashimiKid
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SashimiKid
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 1674
Location: Mississippi
#4
Posted: 8/30/2010 9:25:46 PM
BOL on the under to
quote
centerpiece send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
centerpiece
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 438
Location:
#5
Posted: 8/30/2010 9:42:19 PM

I like the under either way.

quote
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16717
Location:
#6
Posted: 8/30/2010 10:39:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Don't put a lot of stock into it.... I live around these parts...

No Rain in the forecast..


It's wind, not rain.
quote
sambuca frank
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sambuca frank
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 169
Location:
#7
Posted: 8/31/2010 5:31:43 PM
The total has dropped 1-2 pts in the last hour. SC's tight end out and some guy named EARL replacing him. Lets go under!!!
quote
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16717
Location:
#8
Posted: 9/2/2010 1:01:03 AM
Well it looks like the winds won't be much of a factor for this match up. The total has dropped 2 points nonetheless, allowing me to shoot for a small middle with:

Southern Miss/South Carolina OVER 45


I'm only playing one game Week 1. The season is a long one and I like to get a feel for the teams and see how things play out before I bet a bunch of games. My only play is:

UL Lafayette +28.5


GL this week boys.


quote
Morrissey send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Morrissey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3084
Location: New York
#9
Posted: 9/2/2010 10:34:22 AM
Under
quote
ICEBREAKER159 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ICEBREAKER159
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 961
Location: Maryland
#10
Posted: 9/2/2010 10:39:26 AM
quote
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16717
Location:
#11
Posted: 9/3/2010 4:50:35 PM
Got out of UL Lafayette too.

Only play this week is this:



Arizona/Toledo UNDER 59.5


Gusty winds in a small stadium may have a big effect on passing.

GL boys.
quote
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16717
Location:
#12
Posted: 9/3/2010 4:55:12 PM
I'm gonna take Toledo +16.5 too. Weather is the great equalizer.
quote
165yds
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
165yds
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 13219
Location: United States
#13
Posted: 9/3/2010 6:30:31 PM
Just for future reference whenever in bad weather it should always be over or nothing.  I know it's wind but the wind causes the ball to float and for qb's to overthrow their WR which leads to int's and easy scores.  It's different for pro teams like the Giants and Jets who did nothing but run in the old Giants stadium and play defense and field position.  But in the college ranks with just kids there are always a ton of turnovers in any kind of bad weather.  GL .
quote
165yds
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
165yds
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 13219
Location: United States
#14
Posted: 9/3/2010 6:41:58 PM

Another thing, most people take the under in bad weather and the line goes down making it a very obvious and square play taking all value away.  I find it interesting that the sharpest book on the planet is holding a firm 59 (I am not talking about Pinny) while everyone else is at 58.5.  I am staying away from this game and I hope you hit but I would be shocked if this one stays under.

quote
Forum Index : College Football : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.