OKC/San Antonio total

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: OKC/San Antonio total
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:34:50 PM
The total is at 204.5.

SA is 168-21(89%) under this total, in the playoffs in regulation play, under Popovich. OKC is 25-7(78%) under this total, in the playoffs, with Durant.

These are the #1 and #2 teams in terms of offensive efficiency, however, they are also #9 and #11 in defensive efficiency. Which prevails tonight? I am going with defense.

Both teams are playing excellent defense against the 3 pt. shot, allowing only 33% in the postseason. Also, both are allowing a stingy 41-42% in FG% in these playoffs. Pace has slowed down considerably in this postseason with SA averaging 2 less points per 100 possessions and OKC 4 less points. OKC is much more polished defensively than Utah or the Clips; SA will have some difficulty getting into their offense tonight, imo.

I look for some offensive lulls and poor shooting(with the extended layoff for both teams) and stout defense on Parker and Westbrook to disrupt the offensive flow. Ibaka and Duncan can alter many shots and I think we see that tonight.

I like the under 204.5.  Good luck with whatever you choose.

JimmyTheLegend PM JimmyTheLegend
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:36:54 PM
GoldenGater5x PM GoldenGater5x
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:38:27 PM
Nice write up for the Under 
JimmyTheLegend PM JimmyTheLegend
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:44:38 PM
When in the playoffs two teams have 9+ days of rest combined, neither team has 6+ days of rest more than opponent, the under is 23-1 if at least one opponent is not on 5+ winning streak.
The play is under 204.5 in the San Antonio vs OK City game.
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:47:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JimmyTheLegend:

When in the playoffs two teams have 9+ days of rest combined, neither team has 6+ days of rest more than opponent, the under is 23-1 if at least one opponent is not on 5+ winning streak.
The play is under 204.5 in the San Antonio vs OK City game.


Superb stats Jimmy. Appreciate those invaluable tidbits. Wish more of this forum offered such insight.


Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:49:09 PM
mellow best of luck
good info
mgforse PM mgforse
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Posted: 5/27/2012 6:50:41 PM
Yes well rested..they cant wait to hit the court....please under I doubt so just spurs -5.5 for me
cashinsports PM cashinsports
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:18:37 PM
damn hate seeing you on the under.
Both these teams like to run. everyone thinks they'll come out rusty but that was proven wrong in game 1 for both teams against teir opponents. can't see westbrook ad parker walking up the court. think bth teams are hungry to play and will rn back and fourth all 4 qtrs.

Good luck with your pick.
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:25:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:

damn hate seeing you on the under.
Both these teams like to run. everyone thinks they'll come out rusty but that was proven wrong in game 1 for both teams against teir opponents. can't see westbrook ad parker walking up the court. think bth teams are hungry to play and will rn back and fourth all 4 qtrs.

Good luck with your pick.


Thanks for the input. However, one caveat, they both were playing teams coming off a Game 7. Tonight, both squads are well rested and that applies, importantly, to defensive legs as well. The totals for those 2 games ended at 209 and 200, respectively. So I think there is certainly value on the under 204.5.


casperdnb PM casperdnb
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:28:59 PM
Yeah I had over but switched it because I feel that there is gonna be some down time where they go cold and I've learned in the past that 2 offensive teams usually mean under that factored with Crawford means slower pace
cashinsports PM cashinsports
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:35:25 PM
enjoy the game. can't ask for better conference finals for both the west nd east.

Best of luck brotha.
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:38:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:

enjoy the game. can't ask for better conference finals for both the west nd east.

Best of luck brotha.


No doubt cashinsports. Already relaxing with some Coronas and quesadillas. Should be a great game tonight.


vegaslover PM vegaslover
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:50:53 PM
When in the playoffs two teams have 9+ days of rest combined, neither team has 6+ days of rest more than opponent, the under is 23-1 if at least one opponent is not on 5+ winning streak.
The play is under 204.5 in the San Antonio vs OK City game.
 
Isn't SA on 5+ winning streak?   Please explain if I am misunderstanding this trend.
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:53:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vegaslover:

When in the playoffs two teams have 9+ days of rest combined, neither team has 6+ days of rest more than opponent, the under is 23-1 if at least one opponent is not on 5+ winning streak.
The play is under 204.5 in the San Antonio vs OK City game.
 
Isn't SA on 5+ winning streak?   Please explain if I am misunderstanding this trend.


OKC is not on a 5+ game winning streak, but San Antonio is. If both teams were on that winning streak, the trend would be negated.


vegaslover PM vegaslover
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Posted: 5/27/2012 7:55:10 PM
Thx MW!  GL 2nite bud. 
mrod112 PM mrod112
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Posted: 5/27/2012 8:27:30 PM
Gl
Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 5/27/2012 10:27:09 PM
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/27/2012 11:43:31 PM
Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 5/27/2012 11:44:53 PM
jmw59 PM jmw59
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Posted: 5/28/2012 12:34:04 AM
Mad_Skillz123 PM Mad_Skillz123
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Posted: 5/28/2012 2:39:33 AM
   i was on the under and i didnt saw your thread



Sidekickz24 PM Sidekickz24
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Posted: 5/28/2012 3:38:19 AM
Great job!
cashinsports PM cashinsports
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Posted: 5/28/2012 9:26:13 AM

good call on the under

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