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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: If Nothing Else, You'll Be Entertained -- Week 5 Sunday NFL leans -- Part I
cappyrwt send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
cappyrwt
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#1
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:33:33 PM

My objective is to make money.  I use a variety of statistical and situational analysis to make my plays. I fully recognize that I, like everyone else here, cannot predict the future. I simply try to provide the best evidence I believe in to make a good decision on a spread or ML. I encourage feedback that counters my opinion more than feedback that agrees with my opinion because it will challenge me to dig deeper and think differently. If you simply want to say I am wrong, you offer nothing of value to me or the others who are trying to beat Vegas. And let’s face it, we all want to and should help each other beat Vegas. With that said I plan to regularly post my leans by Friday with some thoughts and I will post my final plays Sunday morning. Since I have a family and I value spending time with them more than analyzing games, I apologize in advance if I don’t get back to anyone’s post in a timely fashion. I hope I can at least bring a different way to look at and cap games.

Atlanta -4.5 @ Washington: RGIII hysteria, folks. I went to school near DC and have many friends who are die hard skin fans. I empathize with them and hope RGIII continues to be the real deal because that will mean good things for Washington for years to come. This isn’t their game or their year. Matt Ryan is pissed about last year’s playoff loss and is taking it game by game this year.  Washington was hit by the injury bug on defense early and are 31st in pass defense. If the skins can move the chains by pounding it with the rock, they have a shot to keep this game close but after last week’s close call, I believe Ryan does enough early to make it too difficult for the Skins to run and/or comeback and the Falcons win by 7 (I laugh when people say RGIII will be more successful then Andrew Luck)

Philly @ Pitt -3 (-125): How do you bet against Ben Roethlisberger after a bye week when the team he is playing against has won all three of its wins by 1 point each. This is a game I had to give very little thought to. I’ll take the 2 time SB champion off a bye week at home when the spread is only a FG no matter who he plays.

GB @ Indy +7.5: Is something wrong with Aaron Rodgers (i.e. his ego hasn’t gotten too big)? He played well last week but it was against the worst defense in the NFL. While I don’t like the situation surrounding Pagano, I think Indy does enough to get this cover especially with them also coming off a bye and having two weeks to prepare. If GB had a better running game, either via a better RB or via play calling, I would likely lean in their favor, but they don’t. The hook is the difference.

Cleveland +8 @ NY Giants:  Cleveland has not lost by more than 10 once this year. And while it is a small sample size, the Giants are well known for playing to the level of their competition (except for when in PT). I like the rookies of Cleveland to make some plays against an apathetic and injured defense since I just think the Giants think they can sleep through this game and still win. Just like Baltimore last week.  Plus, Cleveland has had 10 days to prepare. I love siding with dogs that are getting at least a TD and have extra time to prepare.

Tenn +6 @ Minn: While I know people will say how can you take Tenn when they’ve lost by over 20 points in three out of the first four, they have played some stiff offensive competition in NE, Houston and @ SD. Ponder has looked very good in limiting his mistakes this year but he’s only been asked to just manage the clock. He might find this being the first time where he will need to be the difference and I just don’t think he is there yet. Minn’s rush def is always good and Hasselbeck will get every opportunity to beat them with the pass. This is a great position for Matt Hasselbeck. If he can lead Tenn to just 20 points, Tenn may just win this game. I’ll take the veteran over the rookie; esp since the is the first game Hasselbeck will know he is starting as he begin preparing this week.

Miami @ Cincy -4: Miami needed the win last week in Zona. That was a brutal loss and it will be interesting to see how they react. I personally don’t think well. Cincy has a tremendously tough end to their schedule and I think they will take care of business in all of these must-win games. While I think Miami is one of the most under-rated teams in the NFL, I just don’t like this position for them.

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Neurofit send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag |
Neurofit
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#2
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:41:54 PM
good luck with your plays

like the cincy and steelers pick, no opp on the others


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redbook1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:18:19 AM

actually, one doesn't beat vegas--one beats some other gambler.

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mrquija27 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: betED.com |
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#4
Posted: 10/6/2012 8:23:29 AM

Me and you have like minds my friend.  I like all of the plays and agree with the reasoning.  And yes I am trying to beat my book and his numbers, not another gambler.  Unless you consider him the gambler.  We are always playing agianst a number (many of them) which is set be Vegas.  Yes we are playing against Vegas.

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Futures send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 10/6/2012 2:32:56 PM
Good luck Cappy  Thanks for the write-ups.

I like your Tennessee and Cincy picks, other than that I'm on the other side.

Here's an answer to your question, "How do you bet against Ben Roethlisberger after a bye week when the team he is playing against has won all three of its wins by 1 point each?" You do so when they're favored by 3. Philly plays teams tight, and wins.
 
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#6
Posted: 10/6/2012 4:41:28 PM
the numbers don't matter 72% of the time.
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cappyrwt send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 10/6/2012 7:52:59 PM
I hear ya, Futures; however, on the road Philly barely beat one of the worst teams in the league to start the season (last second TD) and got whooped by Zona...who we all saw on Thursday night is a fraud at least on offense. I like Philly's squad but with two weeks to prepare, I think Pitt has too good a game plan and jumps out big early. Good luck, sir.
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cappyrwt send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
cappyrwt
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#8
Posted: 10/6/2012 7:56:38 PM
Redbook1 - I appreciate your comment but I don't agree with your point. Being able to understand what analysis goes behind how Vegas sets the line is as important an element in picking the side as any other. That's at least how I feel.

Who do you like this week?
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Fckshop send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 10/6/2012 9:54:23 PM
I like GB to win by more than a touchdown n Mia to cover if not win (but that's the HOMER in me)...but good write up 
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cappyrwt send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 10/6/2012 10:58:15 PM
Thanks, Fckshop. I'm probably too high on Luck at this point but I feel like the team will step up and play well for their coach. I also am probably slightly bitter since I've taken GB the last two weeks and been very disappointed. This will probably be a no play for me. I'm still pretty high on Cincy but might take them on the ML so I don't get screwed by a FG win. I'll post final plays an hour or so before games tomorrow. Good luck, sir.
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