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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013 NFL Betting System #2
canuck10
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canuck10
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#1
Posted: 8/20/2013 11:11:31 PM
Here is the 2nd system that I will be tracking. I believe that Real QBR and Real Defensive QBR were created by Kerry Bryne. He received a ton of criticism when he claimed that Tim Tebow had outperformed Aaron Rodgers and rightly so.

Using a system similar to that found in Betting System #1 and figuring out the slope and intercept values using linear regression, I was able to create a value. By then taking the difference between that value and the opponent, I was able to find a theoretical spread. I then compare that to the actual spread and side with the team that is "under-valued". I backtracked the system for 2011-12 and found that I would have picked 64% ATS. However, the system is flawed. 

The previous year's statistics did not dictate future performance and would have done poorly in picking the spread. However, if one could be fairly accurate in determining how roster and coaching changes will influence Real QBR and Defensive QBR, then it might be profitable. 

For example, I think Baltimore's Real QBR will take a hit with the loss of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta; similarly, I expect Arizona's Real QBR to improve with the addition of Carson Palmer and a healthy and improved (but still below average) offensive line. 

Without further ado, here are my week #1 picks using my numbers.
Picks in bold. 

Baltimore @ Denver -8 
New England @ Buffalo +7
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh -7
Atlanta @ New Orleans -3
Tampa Bay @ NY Jets +2.5
Kansas City @ Jacksonville +3.5
Seattle @ Carolina +3 
Cincinnati @ Chicago +3.5
Minnesota @ Detroit -3.5
Oakland @ Indianapolis -7
Green Bay @ San Francisco -4
Arizona @ St. Louis -6
NYG @ Dallas -2.5
Houston @ San Diego -3

I did not pick for Miami @ Cleveland (as my numbers were identical to the spread), nor did I choose between Philadelphia @ Washington due to the unknown health of RGIII.
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Tinklebell
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#2
Posted: 8/21/2013 12:56:40 AM
Can't wait !
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canuck10
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canuck10
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#3
Posted: 9/11/2013 1:16:17 AM
Week 1 Results 
ATS = 7-7-1

Thursday Nights Game
NY Jets @ New England (-13)    Pick: NY Jets

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#4
Posted: 9/13/2013 1:44:45 PM
question how do you get the standard deviation for all 32 teams....or can u explain more.... good hit last night 
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canuck10
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#5
Posted: 9/14/2013 12:20:24 PM
Rest of week 2 picks:

SD @ PHI (-7.5) SD

CLE @ BAL (-7) CLE

TEN @ HOU (-10) TEN

MIA @ IND (-3) MIA

CAR @ BUF (+3) CAR

STL @ ATL (-6) STL

DAL @ KC (-3) DAL

MIN @ CHI (-6) MIN

NO @ TB (+3.5) NO

DET @ ARI (+2) ARI

JAK @ OAK (-6) JAK

DEN @ NYG (-4.5) DEN

SF @ SEA (-3) SF

PIT @ CIN (-7) PIT


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canuck10
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canuck10
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#6
Posted: 9/18/2013 6:53:16 PM
Week 2 Results: 8-8
YTD: 15-15-1

Created a HF advantage ranking and will integrate it into my algorithms. 

Thursday Night: 
KC @ PHI (-3.5) KC
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b_rad_1983
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#7
Posted: 9/18/2013 7:45:13 PM
Ive never made anything like this.. but what if these additions your integrating messes things up?
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canuck10
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Posted: 9/19/2013 1:17:14 AM
Right now, I had no adjustments for HF advantage. Generally, people use -2.5 to -3 pts for it, but there are some teams that play significantly better at home (SEA, CHI, HOU) while others play worse (OAK, NYJ). 

I will just back-test and compare to see if my numbers are getting closer/further away from the spread and if I would be doing better from a W-L betting perspective. 
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canuck10
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#9
Posted: 9/21/2013 11:00:04 PM
Rest of Week 3 Picks 
HOU @ BAL (+3)  No pick (my #'s EXACT same)
NYG @ CAR (+1) NYG
DET @ WAS (PK) DET
SD @ TEN (-3) SD
ARI @ NO (-7) ARI
TB @ NE (-7) TB
GB @ CIN (+3) GB
STL @ DAL (-4) STL
CLE @ MIN (-7) CLE
ATL @ MIA (-3) ATL
BUF @ NYJ (-3) BUF
IND @ SF (-10) IND
JAK @ SEA (-19) SEA
CHI @ PIT (+3) CHI
OAK @ DEN (-15.5) OAK
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canuck10
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canuck10
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#10
Posted: 9/26/2013 1:32:35 AM
Week 3 Record: 6-8-1
YTD: 21-23-2

Thursday Game
SF @ STL (+3)  Pick: STL

My number has it as +2.5 - too close for betting, but will track it. 
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canuck10
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#11
Posted: 9/28/2013 8:37:59 PM

PIT v. MIN (+3) PIT

BAL v. BUF (+3.5) BAL

CIN v. CLE (+4) CLE

IND v. JAK (+9) JAK

SEA v. HOU (+3) SEA

ARI v. TB (-2.5) ARI 

CHI v. TB (-3) CHI

NYG v. KC (-5) NYG

NYJ v. TEN (-3.5) NYJ

DAL v. SD (+2) DAL

NE v. ATL (-1.5) NE

MIA v. NO (-7) MIA


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canuck10
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#12
Posted: 10/2/2013 10:55:06 PM
Week 4 Record: 4-9
YTD: 25-32-2

Thursday's Pick
Buffalo @ Cleveland (-4)  Pick: BUF
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canuck10
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#13
Posted: 10/5/2013 10:43:59 PM
Rest of week 5 ...

NO @ CHI (+1) No pick

NE @ CIN (-1) NE

DET @ GB (-7) DET

SEA @ IND (+3) No pick

BAL @ MIA (-3) BAL

PHI @ NYG (-3) PHI

JAK @ STL (-12) JAK

KC @ TEN (+3) TEN

CAR @ ARI (+2) ARI

DEN @ DAL (+9) DAL

HOU @ SF (-7) HOU

SD @ OAK (+5) OAK

NYJ @ ATL (-10) NYJ

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canuck10
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#14
Posted: 10/10/2013 2:20:26 AM
Week 5 Results: 6-6
YTD: 31-38-2

Thursday Night
NY Giants @ Chicago (-8)  Pick: Chicago 
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canuck10
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#15
Posted: 10/13/2013 12:13:20 PM
Rest of picks ...

GB @ BAL (+3) Pick: GB

CIN @ BUF (+7) Pick: BUF

DET @ CLE (+3) Pick: CLE

STL @ HOU (-9) Pick: STL

OAK @ KC (-9.5) Pick: OAK

CAR @ MIN (-3) Pick: CAR

PIT @ NYJ (-1) Pick: PIT

PHI @ TB (+3) Pick: TB

JAK @ DEN (-27) Pick: JAK

TEN @ SEA (-14) Pick: TEN

NO @ NE (-2.5) Pick: NO

AR @ SF (-11) Pick: ARI

WAS @ DAL (-6) Pick: WAS

IND @ SD (+1) Pick: IND

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canuck10
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#16
Posted: 10/17/2013 6:47:39 PM
Week 6 Results: 6-9
YTD: 37-47-2 

Thursday Night'er 

SEA @ ARI (+6.5) Pick - Arizona 
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canuck10
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#17
Posted: 10/19/2013 3:40:41 PM
Rest of picks:

NE @ NYJ (+4) Pick: NE

SD @ JAK (+9) Pick: JAK

BUF @ MIA (-9) Pick: BUF

CHI @ WAS (-1) Pick: CHI

DAL @ PHI (-3) Pick: DAL

STL @ CAR (-6) Pick: STL

TB @ ATL (-9) Pick: TB

SF @ TEN (+4.5) Pick: TEN

HOU @ KC (-7) Pick: HOU

CLE @ GB (-10) Pick: CLE

BAL @ PIT (-1) Pick: BAL

DEN @ IND (+7) Pick: IND

MIN @ NYG (-3.5) Pick: MIN

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canuck10
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#18
Posted: 10/27/2013 12:20:15 PM
Week 7 Results: 4-10
YTD: 41-57-2

CAR @ TB +6 Pick: TB

DAL @ DET -3 Pick: DAL

SF @ JAK +16 Pick: JAK

CLE @ KC -7.5 Pick: CLE

MIA @ NE -6.5 Pick: MIA

BUF @ NO -11 Pick: BUF

NYG @ PHI -5 Pick: NYG

NYJ @ CIN -6 Pick: NYJ

PIT @ OAK +2 Pick: OAK

ATL @ ARI -2.5 Pick: ATL

WAS @ DEN -11.5 Pick: WAS

GB @ MIN +8 Pick: MIN

SEA @ STL +11 Pick: STL


Something is clearly wrong with the coefficient values for the variables I use, as they continue to spit out nearly all underdogs. My lines are very close to the betting lines, but always a couple points on the side of the dog. 

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legendkiller007
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#19
Posted: 11/7/2013 12:34:43 AM
could use this a fade system man!!

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