2013 NFL Betting System #3

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013 NFL Betting System #3
canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 8/20/2013 11:25:56 PM
Finally system for the 2013-14 season. I will be using RedZone Differential to create a spread and siding with the team that is undervalued. Unlike the last system, I will only be using 2012 numbers and not making any changes due to roster moves or coaching changes (I will just exclude games that involve a major coaching or QB change). 

Offensive RZ Efficiency = # of appearances x # of RZ TDs (per game); Defensive RZ Efficiency is calculated in a similar manner
 

I then factor in the strength of the opponent using standard deviations and averages. For example, Baltimore might be above average in Defensive RZ Efficiency, but Denver is several standard deviations above average in Offensive RZ Efficiency. Therefore, Baltimore's D-RZ efficiency will be much higher (due to playing against a team that is significantly above average on offense) and Denver's O-RZ efficiency will be slightly lower (due to playing against a team that is a little above average on defense) .To find RZ differential, I then use the following formula:

RZ Differential = O RZ Efficiency - D RZ Efficiency 

I then create a spread using linear regression and slope & y-intercept values. 

Here are my week 1 picks:

Baltimore @ Denver -8
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh -7
Atlanta @ New Orleans -3
Tampa Bay @ NY Jets +2.5
Seattle @ Carolina +3
Cincinnati @ Chicago -3.5 
Miami @ Cleveland +1.5 
Minnesota @ Detroit -3.5
Green Bay @ San Francisco -4
NY Giants @ Dallas -2.5 
Houston @ San Diego +3

Tinklebell PM Tinklebell
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Tinklebell
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Posted: 8/21/2013 12:56:06 AM
Good stuff !
bulichm PM bulichm
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bulichm
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Posted: 8/23/2013 9:28:13 AM
I like some of the games that made this list and the #2 system.
SEA, DET, CIN, HOU.
canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 9/11/2013 1:19:16 AM
Week 1 Results 
ATS = 6-4-1

Thursday Nights Game 

NY Jets @ New England (-13)    Pick: NY Jets
canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 9/14/2013 12:23:05 PM
Rest of week 2 picks ...

TEN @ HOU (-10) HOU

CAR @ BUF (+3) CAR

STL @ ATL (-6) ATL

MIN @ CHI (-6) MIN

NO @ TB (+3.5) TB

JAK @ OAK (-6) JAK

DEN @ NYG (-4.5) NYG

SF @ SEA (-3) SEA

PIT @ CIN (-7) PIT


canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 9/21/2013 11:23:33 PM
Week 2 Record: 5-5
YTD: 11-9-1

Week 3 Picks
Rest of Week 3 Picks 
HOU @ BAL (+3)  No pick (my #'s EXACT same)
NYG @ CAR (+1) NYG
DET @ WAS (PK) DET
SD @ TEN (-3) SD
TB @ NE (-7) NE
GB @ CIN (+3) CIN
STL @ DAL (-4) STL
CLE @ MIN (-7) CLE
ATL @ MIA (-3) ATL
IND @ SF (-10) IND
JAK @ SEA (-19) JAK
CHI @ PIT (+3) PIT
OAK @ DEN (-15.5) DEN
canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 9/26/2013 1:29:47 AM
Week 3 Record: 5-5-1
Overall: 16-14-1

Thursday Night
SF @ STL (+3)  Pick: SF

My number has it as +4 ... I don't bet if my numbers are this close. 
canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 9/28/2013 8:41:35 PM

PIT v. MIN (+3) PIT

CIN v. CLE (+4) CIN

IND v. JAK (+9) JAK

SEA v. HOU (+3) HOU

CHI v. DET (-3) DET

NYJ v. TEN (-3.5) NYJ

DAL v. SD (+2) SD

WAS v. OAK (+3.5) WAS

NE v. ATL (-1.5) NE

MIA v. NO (-7) MIA

canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 10/5/2013 10:46:02 PM
Week 4 Record: 5-5
YTD: 22-19-2

Week 5 Picks ...

NO @ CHI (+1) CHI

NE @ CIN (-1) NE

DET @ GB (-7) DET

SEA @ IND (+3) SEA

BAL @ MIA (-3) BAL

PHI @ NYG (-3) NYG

JAK @ STL (-12) JAK

DEN @ DAL (+9) DAL

HOU @ SF (-7) HOU

canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 10/10/2013 2:21:36 AM
Week 5 Record: 2-7
YTD: 24-26-2

Thursday Night
NY Giants @ Chicago (-8) Pick: NY Giants
canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 10/13/2013 12:11:13 PM
Rest of picks ...

GB @ BAL (+3) Pick: BAL

CIN @ BUF (+7) Pick: CIN

STL @ HOU (-9) Pick: STL

CAR @ MIN (-3) Pick: CAR

PIT @ NYJ (-1) Pick: PIT

JAK @ DEN (-27) Pick: JAK

TEN @ SEA (-14) Pick: SEA

NO @ NE (-2.5) Pick: NE

WAS @ DAL (-6) Pick: WAS

IND @ SD (+1) Pick: IND

canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 10/19/2013 3:17:38 PM
Week 6 Record: 7-4
YTD: 31-30-2

NE @ NYJ (+4) Pick: NE

SD @ JAK (+9) Pick: JAK

CIN @ DET (-3) Pick: CIN

BUF @ MIA (-9) Pick: BUF

DAL @ PHI (-3) Pick: DAL

STL @ CAR (-6) Pick: STL

TB @ ATL (-9) Pick: TB

SF @ TEN (+4.5) Pick: SF

CLE @ GB (-10) Pick: CLE

BAL @ PIT (-1) Pick: BAL

MIN @ NYG (-3.5) Pick: NYG




canuck10 PM canuck10
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canuck10
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Posted: 10/27/2013 12:22:59 PM
Week 7 Record: 5-6 
Overall: 36-36-2

I will now be using RZ statistics from the 2013-14 season. 

CAR @ TB +6 Pick: TB

DAL @ DET -3 Pick: DET

SF @ JAK +16 Pick: JAK

CLE @ KC -7.5 Pick: CLE

MIA @ NE -6.5 Pick: NE

BUF @ NO -11 Pick: BUF

NYG @ PHI -5 Pick: NYG

NYJ @ CIN -6 Pick: NYJ

PIT @ OAK +2 Pick: PIT

ATL @ ARI -2.5 Pick: ATL

WAS @ DEN -11.5 Pick: WAS

GB @ MIN +8 Pick: MIN

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