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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Betting on the NBA playoffs is so easy
ZonaCats send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/8/2012 11:30:15 PM
Any $ placed pre-game is potentially throwaway.

Only play live bets.

Play the team that wins the 1Q. If team covers 1Q line, even better. 

Maximize profits if/when team that won 1Q falls behind. 

You're all welcome. 
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#2
Posted: 5/8/2012 11:56:46 PM
Any $ placed on a game is potentially throwaway.
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#3
Posted: 5/9/2012 1:34:12 AM
2012 NBA Playoffs - Team that wins the 1Q is 26-9 SU (74%) #1Qnot4Q
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#4
Posted: 5/9/2012 1:34:29 AM
2012 NBA Playoffs - Team that wins the 1Q is 24-11 ATS (69%)#1Qnot4Q
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#5
Posted: 5/9/2012 1:34:40 AM
2012 NBA Playoffs - Team that covers 1Q is 22-10 ATS (69%)#1Qnot4Q
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#6
Posted: 5/9/2012 1:38:14 AM
thx 

ill try tomorrow
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#7
Posted: 5/11/2012 2:43:18 PM
Updated records: 

Team that wins 1Q, wins game 29-10 (74%)
Team that wins 1Q, covers spread 27-12 (69%)
Team that covers 1Q, covers spread 25-11 (70%)
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#8
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:01:27 PM
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#9
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:21:32 PM
of course the team that wins the 1q is more likely to win the spread.  that surprise anyone?
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#10
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:25:03 PM
Would've been nice to say this before the playoffs started. 
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#11
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:27:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Would've been nice to say this before the playoffs started. 

I've been rocking this system for years.... 
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#12
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:29:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

2012 NBA Playoffs - Team that wins the 1Q is 24-11 ATS (69%)#1Qnot4Q


That is based on original full-game lines.  Not in-game lines that you are talking about. 

I do not think that what you mentioned above is in any way a winning strategy in the long term. 
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#13
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:31:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:



That is based on original full-game lines.  Not in-game lines that you are talking about. 

I do not think that what you mentioned above is in any way a winning strategy in the long term. 


xactly i'd be more interested in the live ats record after the 1q
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#14
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:35:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by budwiser:

of course the team that wins the 1q is more likely to win the spread.  that surprise anyone?

Lol this would seem obvious to most but obviously not.
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#15
Posted: 5/11/2012 3:39:54 PM
i've got an algorithim that finds "opportunities" at multiple live-betting shops and it almost always finds a line of at least within .5 or 1 pt of original line at some point in the game. BBall is a game of runs. The key is getting in in between runs. 
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#16
Posted: 5/11/2012 4:44:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:



That is based on original full-game lines.  Not in-game lines that you are talking about. 

I do not think that what you mentioned above is in any way a winning strategy in the long term. 

exactly... pretty zona is just stating the obvious lol.  Teams that win the 1st quarter are obviously most likely to win the game.


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#17
Posted: 5/11/2012 4:45:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by budwiser:



xactly i'd be more interested in the live ats record after the 1q


yes... that would be interesting and more helpful.
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#18
Posted: 5/11/2012 4:46:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

Any $ placed pre-game is potentially throwaway.

Only play live bets.

Play the team that wins the 1Q. If team covers 1Q line, even better. 

Maximize profits if/when team that won 1Q falls behind. 

You're all welcome. 


I am not saying thankyou... you are stating the obvious...  That is like saying, the team that goes 2 games to 1 in 7 game series is more likely to win the series.  Duh....




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#19
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:14:57 PM
 What a JOKE!!! Waste of space and time!!
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#20
Posted: 5/11/2012 7:57:39 PM
you guys bashing are all retards, especially this FlyGuy clown. 

BBall is a game of runs. There are plenty of lead changes. Gaining an edge by knowing that there is a correlation between winner of 1Q and covering full-game is HUGE. 

Consistently winning during the playoffs of any sport when lines are sharpest is a very difficult thing to do. If this is was so obvious, then obviously you all are killing it too. GL and continue on. 

U try and give people a free handout and they spit on it. Ridiculous. Reminds of me that time I gave a homeless guy my leftovers from a 4-star restuarant and he threw it to the ground and yelled "how can I buy crack with this?" 

Have fun with your crack. 
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#21
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:21:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

you guys bashing are all retards, especially this FlyGuy clown. 

BBall is a game of runs. There are plenty of lead changes. Gaining an edge by knowing that there is a correlation between winner of 1Q and covering full-game is HUGE. 

Consistently winning during the playoffs of any sport when lines are sharpest is a very difficult thing to do. If this is was so obvious, then obviously you all are killing it too. GL and continue on. 

U try and give people a free handout and they spit on it. Ridiculous. Reminds of me that time I gave a homeless guy my leftovers from a 4-star restuarant and he threw it to the ground and yelled "how can I buy crack with this?" 

Have fun with your crack. 


LMAO as a fan of live betting (or, in-game commercial break betting as 5dimes refers to it) I can totally see what you're saying and I do my best to take stabs at the live spread whenever I feel the wrong team went on a run.  I've never tied it to the winner or coverer of the 1st quarter though, and I will now try it. 

Probably can't test it fully tonight because its the girlfriend's birthday, but I will try!  Luckily she just wants me to cook italian, and I have 4 living room TVs so she can watch whatever crappy ghost hunter stuff she wants while I get my gamble on.  She got her birthday jewelry from my blackjack successes, so she will be cool with it :D

Basically, using tonight as an example, how's this for my comprehension of what you're saying:

1st quarter spread is Grizz -.5 so if the Grizz lead by anything at end of the 1st, they're the "jump on the good live spread/ML" team.  With that notion in hand, wait for a time when the Clips go on a mini point fest (high shooting % or a couple dumb turnovers etc) and then a timeout/commercial break.

Clips little run has them up 8 points we will say.  Live spread on the break is Grizz +6.  JUMP ON IT and coast the rest of the game!  If the Clips jump out even further, grab a +11 later to cover your less attractive +6.

I sorta did that through the Orlando series and the OKC/Dallas series, but without a basis for which team is the "right team" to jump on.  I have no idea if this makes any sense but I will try to merge your stats and strategy with my "day trading" view of live betting.
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#22
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:34:15 PM
U look like your on CRACK,skinny toothless girl!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#23
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:55:28 PM
haha, FlyGuy from west friggin virginia is telling me i'm toothless. 

take your cousin's person out of your behind and use the 2 brain cells your uncle and sister gave u for something good. 
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#24
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:57:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FreeMoneyInc:



LMAO as a fan of live betting (or, in-game commercial break betting as 5dimes refers to it) I can totally see what you're saying and I do my best to take stabs at the live spread whenever I feel the wrong team went on a run.  I've never tied it to the winner or coverer of the 1st quarter though, and I will now try it. 

Probably can't test it fully tonight because its the girlfriend's birthday, but I will try!  Luckily she just wants me to cook italian, and I have 4 living room TVs so she can watch whatever crappy ghost hunter stuff she wants while I get my gamble on.  She got her birthday jewelry from my blackjack successes, so she will be cool with it :D

Basically, using tonight as an example, how's this for my comprehension of what you're saying:

1st quarter spread is Grizz -.5 so if the Grizz lead by anything at end of the 1st, they're the "jump on the good live spread/ML" team.  With that notion in hand, wait for a time when the Clips go on a mini point fest (high shooting % or a couple dumb turnovers etc) and then a timeout/commercial break.

Clips little run has them up 8 points we will say.  Live spread on the break is Grizz +6.  JUMP ON IT and coast the rest of the game!  If the Clips jump out even further, grab a +11 later to cover your less attractive +6.

I sorta did that through the Orlando series and the OKC/Dallas series, but without a basis for which team is the "right team" to jump on.  I have no idea if this makes any sense but I will try to merge your stats and strategy with my "day trading" view of live betting.

You've got the gist. GL with your winnings. 
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#25
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:58:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

haha, FlyGuy from west friggin virginia is telling me i'm toothless. 

take your cousin's person out of your behind and use the 2 brain cells your uncle and sister gave u for something good. 

  

I WAS JUST GONNA TELL FLYGUY TO GET F OTTA HERE, BUT YOU STOLE THE SHOW! KEEP UP THE USEFUL POSTS ZONA!!! 

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