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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: All or Nothing MLB Chase (3 game)
hurleymc send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
hurleymc
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#1
Posted: 6/24/2013 9:53:19 AM
Throwing out my all-or-nothing MLB chase system for constructive criticism.  I've never really liked the fact that I go all or nothing but it's high risk/high reward so until I can figure out a better way, this is what I've been working with.  I'm hoping I can get some ideas on how to make it better and keep it rolling.

Long story short, I look at a variety of inputs to select a series.  I mainly look at performance over the past 7 days in terms of Runs Scored, % of ABs ending in Ks & BBs, ISO, BA, BABIP, SLG, and OBP.  I look at the pitching matchups for the 3 games and pay particular attention to a pitcher's recent performance home/away.

Once I have the series selected, I'll look at the lines and try to come up with estimates for all 3 games.  Depending on what time I book the action, I may/may not be able to see the overnight line for the next day's game.  Once I have all 3 lines, I have a linear programming model set up that tells me how to split my bankroll over the 3 games to get the max payout.

For $hits and giggles, I'm going to start posting my plays in this thread.  Let's assume I start with a bankroll of $1000.  If I win a series, I roll the winnings into the next selection so I'm compounding the winnings. Assuming a 6% return on a series, playing 50 series in a season would give you a nice return if you can avoid a sweep.

Again, I'm looking for constructive criticism on the system, including the money management.  Don't post that it's stupid to wager your entire bankroll on one series.  I got it.  Post something that can help us all make some money.  

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hurleymc send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
hurleymc
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#2
Posted: 6/24/2013 9:54:11 AM
6/24 - I don't see any plays for today but anticipate starting up tomorrow.
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hurleymc send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 6/25/2013 7:57:01 AM
6/25 - DET @ -139

Starting Bankroll = $1000

$101.03 to win 72.68 - (7.268% gain)

I show the Tigers striking out and walking more than the Angels, hitting for more power, higher BABIP (.335 vs. .288) and a higher OBP (.380 vs. .332) over the last 7 days.

DET just took 3 of 4 at home from Boston and LAA got swept at home by PIT.  I like DET to win one game at home from LAA.
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hurleymc send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 6/26/2013 7:37:51 AM
6/26 - DET @ -145

Current bankroll = $898.97

$255.36 to win $176.11
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coolspot
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coolspot
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#5
Posted: 6/26/2013 9:22:51 AM
if your going to do this for real you should use proven systems already out,  like the jm system with these filters don;t bet on teams below 4.70 and don;t bet against top 2 teams in league. I think you should only use half the bank roll this way encase of a loss you can recoup your losses. maybe starting out with something smaller like 100$ would make more sense.  I wish you the best of luck.
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#6
Posted: 6/27/2013 7:48:17 AM
6/27 - DET @ -138

$643.61 to win $466.38
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JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#7
Posted: 6/27/2013 9:43:54 AM
I hope you win this or bankroll is shot! Good luck to you!
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RommiRommi
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#8
Posted: 6/27/2013 5:52:37 PM
Nothing
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bruin95 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#9
Posted: 6/28/2013 12:33:53 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

I hope you win this or bankroll is shot! Good luck to you!

 

He was using a pretend bankroll, so no worries.

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Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#10
Posted: 6/28/2013 1:05:46 AM
damn that sucks. been there before
Posted using a mobile device.
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