Posted: 6/24/2013 9:53:19 AM
Throwing out my all-or-nothing MLB chase system for constructive criticism. I've never really liked the fact that I go all or nothing but it's high risk/high reward so until I can figure out a better way, this is what I've been working with. I'm hoping I can get some ideas on how to make it better and keep it rolling.
Long story short, I look at a variety of inputs to select a series. I mainly look at performance over the past 7 days in terms of Runs Scored, % of ABs ending in Ks & BBs, ISO, BA, BABIP, SLG, and OBP. I look at the pitching matchups for the 3 games and pay particular attention to a pitcher's recent performance home/away.
Once I have the series selected, I'll look at the lines and try to come up with estimates for all 3 games. Depending on what time I book the action, I may/may not be able to see the overnight line for the next day's game. Once I have all 3 lines, I have a linear programming model set up that tells me how to split my bankroll over the 3 games to get the max payout.
For $hits and giggles, I'm going to start posting my plays in this thread. Let's assume I start with a bankroll of $1000. If I win a series, I roll the winnings into the next selection so I'm compounding the winnings. Assuming a 6% return on a series, playing 50 series in a season would give you a nice return if you can avoid a sweep.
Again, I'm looking for constructive criticism on the system, including the money management. Don't post that it's stupid to wager your entire bankroll on one series. I got it. Post something that can help us all make some money.