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Author: [College Football] Topic: 5 Dimes lines up.......
thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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#51
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:23:25 PM
Georgia/Nebraska is a better example.   

Another way to phrase it, would be to use the term  "bandwagon".

The Georgia bandwagon is pretty much full, but a lot of people jumped of the Nebraska bandwagon when Wiscy routed them.

Baylor bandwagon is more full now than it has all year.  But, IMO, the UCLA bandwagon is also full.  




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WISEGUY36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio |
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#52
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:33:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



AGAIN......you're thinking right /wrong.....smart / stupid

IT'S SIMPLE VEGAS SLANG....REFERRING MOSTLY TO BETTING BEHAVIORS........recreational vs experienced or professional bettors bet differently..........PERIOD

Just as a rookie day trader....or a guy that studies for a week or two....thinks he's gonna kill the Forex market
  *SHOCKER!....his approach / strategy will vary tremendously from an educated /seasoned / successful veteran trader ...............
*YES....this guy may in fact make more money than the pro (short run)

However.....his METHODS......might be referred to as amateurish...or 'square'............................get it?....
     *his stock picks.........ditto

*Experienced bettors recognize that a team that finishes strong.........is not NECESSARILY......a team to 'play on' in bowls........especially vs a young team on the rise.......like UCLA.....who is thrilled to play here....with a nice home-field edge too.......> started strong...then faded

SO.....in a simple labeling of betting trends....Baylor is probably a 'public' favorite....UCLA ...probably....the side (if any)....most 'sharps' will be on

--------------------------------------------------------------

Better example is probably Georgia / Nebraska.......Most of the money will follow the teams as last seen on TV.....very few recreational bettors (99%+ here) will be on Nebraska........most professionals.....are waiting for this one to rise further......as the VALUE is with the Huskers in a big way........> look for a very late push on Nebraska
    *Georgia....is clearly.....the SQUARE......side
      Nebraska......clearly the SHARP side..........

Georgia.....may.....and should.....slaughter the Huskers
But the pro's bet the NUMBER (not the TEAM).......and will INVEST in Nebraska at an inflated price................
  *and will most likely.....avoid Georgia in this spot


One of the best things about bowl season is the ability to take
advantage of  the match ups afforded by teams meeting which
are maximized by teams meeting for the first time or very
infrequently which propose a challenge via mismatch to their
opponent. For example:

1. Teams that run the spread vs teams that do not have the skills
    to defend it well.
2. Same thing with the option.
3. Teams that predominately run (or Pass) vs teams that defend
    the run or pass well.
4. Teams that do not match up well vs a quality "dual threat" QB.
5. Teams that have played a tougher quality of opponent.

I believe that exploiting these types of "mismatches" is where our
opportunity to have success on a consistent basis is more likely
to be realized.

Best of Luck to all
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ApocalypseLater send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#53
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:24:20 PM
good points, Wiseguy... i think in general, the importance of solid QB play and good coaching are amplified in bowl games... you are generally well-advised to back teams that have a favorable mismatch in one or both of these areas...
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#54
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:34:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

Georgia/Nebraska is a better example.   

Another way to phrase it, would be to use the term  "bandwagon".

The Georgia bandwagon is pretty much full, but a lot of people jumped of the Nebraska bandwagon when Wiscy routed them.

Baylor bandwagon is more full now than it has all year.  But, IMO, the UCLA bandwagon is also full.  






looks like you're very s-l-o-w-l-y......figuring it out Thorpe.......
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WISEGUY36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio |
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#55
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:45:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

good points, Wiseguy... i think in general, the importance of solid QB play and good coaching are amplified in bowl games... you are generally well-advised to back teams that have a favorable mismatch in one or both of these areas...


AL, Thanks.I also look for teams that have history of past bowl
success (with their current head coach) or teams that lost their
bowl game last year and is looking to step it up this year.

AL, best of Luck this bowl season
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#56
Posted: 12/12/2012 9:40:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


I don't think "sharps" would take a side in this game.  It should be a back and forth game and either team could win by 14 to 20 points. 

My guess is the sharp would take the over or take a pass on this game.

Two good offenses + two shaky defenses = over or no play

But if you prefer a team that can run and pass, you go with UCLA.  But if you prefer a team that passes so well they don't need to run much, then you go with Baylor.

THAT'S enough for me

 

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#57
Posted: 12/12/2012 10:17:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



One of the best things about bowl season is the ability to take
advantage of  the match ups afforded by teams meeting which
are maximized by teams meeting for the first time or very
infrequently which propose a challenge via mismatch to their
opponent. For example:

1. Teams that run the spread vs teams that do not have the skills
    to defend it well.
2. Same thing with the option.
3. Teams that predominately run (or Pass) vs teams that defend
    the run or pass well.
4. Teams that do not match up well vs a quality "dual threat" QB.
5. Teams that have played a tougher quality of opponent.

I believe that exploiting these types of "mismatches" is where our
opportunity to have success on a consistent basis is more likely
to be realized.

Best of Luck to all


Agreed.....but we will be 'requiring' a list of those teams....in a few days or so............
   *I'll match it with my own and a bunch of other stuff
including all coaching implications............

* I'll be finished hopefully by Saturday
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#58
Posted: 12/13/2012 10:19:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



Agreed.....but we will be 'requiring' a list of those teams....in a few days or so............
   *I'll match it with my own and a bunch of other stuff
including all coaching implications............

* I'll be finished hopefully by Saturday


Bookie, with my limited keyboard skills, I can have detailed write
ups for you by Ground Hog Day.

I'll get right on it.
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#59
Posted: 12/13/2012 12:13:33 PM
To check out head coach Bowl records, go to Beyond the Bets
site and check out their article of 12 / 5 on the record (incl ATS)
for 70 college football Head coaches.I think you'll be surprised at
the records of some of the more "high profile" members.
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MGD
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#60
Posted: 12/13/2012 12:17:13 PM
GL bowling this season boys!! 
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#61
Posted: 12/13/2012 4:03:01 PM
Early Bowl games: Points to think about

ARIZONA / NEVADA
Line: Ariz. -91/2  tot 76

Arizona- Offense  Balanced
Head Coach " Rich Rod " Bowl Record vs spread 1-5
Key Team stats./ National rankings
Scoring offense #17
Scoring defense #101, run defense #88
Avg ppg scored 36
Key point: Played much tougher sched. than Nevada.

Nevada- Offense Run 61 %
Head Coach Chris Ault 2-5 ats in bowl games.
Key team stats/rankings
Scoring offense # 20
Scoring defense # 94
Avg ppg scored 36

See no edge for either side, OVER is very tempting.

TOLEDO / UTAH ST.
Line: UTSU - 10 1/2 tot. 58 1/2

Toledo - Offense run 55%
Head Coach  M. Campbell (no bowl exp.)
Rushing offense # 39
Total defense #106

UTSU- Offense Balanced
Head Coach G. Andersen Bowl spread record 0-1
Offense total off. # 36 (avg. 35 ppg)
Total Defense #15
Scoring Defense #8
Rushing Defense #12
Allows only 2.9 ypr
Played slightly tougher schedule than Toledo.

I'm not willing to lay 10 1/2 in this one. It's a no pick for me.

Best of Luck to all









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#62
Posted: 12/13/2012 9:30:21 PM
Early Bowl games #2

Looking at a 2 tm Teaser

Ariz/ Nevada over

UTSU















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#63
Posted: 12/15/2012 5:16:20 PM
Hey Bookie, What's your opinion of the BYU / SDSU game ?
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#64
Posted: 12/15/2012 6:15:25 PM
5 Dimes blows
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#65
Posted: 12/15/2012 6:46:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

talked the wife into a trip to Atlanta yet.
   *damm mws.....get some 'scene control' man.....

All right, Rhyner.... 

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