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jdnmoney |
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#51 Posted: 7/10/2012 12:59:05 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by BamaPiks:
#28 jdnmoney 6/15/12 1:08 AM
Do what you will but I wouldn't lay 43-45 on LSU no matter what the situation. They struggle too much on offense. Much better situations will present themselves in wk 1
Contradictory!!
how is this contradictory my friend?
43-45 is way to many points to lay with an inept and methodical offense such as LSU. many better chalk fav's will present themselves in the early weeks. LSU-43 is not a good wager
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ApocalypseLater |
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#52 Posted: 7/10/2012 2:13:51 AM
you created an ID in May of this year, and have fewer than 100 posts...
you think it is stupid to bet on a high spread in a cupcake game...
and you think this statement ("Do what you will but I wouldn't lay 43-45 on LSU no matter what the
situation. They struggle too much on offense. Much better situations
will present themselves in wk 1") contains some sort of contradiction...
so yeaaaaaa... i'm not impressed!
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bookieassassin |
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#53 Posted: 7/10/2012 2:59:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:
I disagree. With an unproven QB, a lot of coaches will want him to pile up big passing stats to get some confidence and experience. A proven QB might be benched earlier. Depends on the coach and the QB, so we'll see.
I think the line will be between 45 and 50. We'll see on that too
So........
If ....POOF!....Tyler Wilson...Barkley.....or maybe Landry Jones were the LSU QB....you would fade them then?
but (essentially).....play on.....LSU since the QB is not THAT good....they will leave his behind in longer?.....
a strange betting strategy there Thorpe....
Know what you mean.....given a different coach maybe..
maybe if Leach...Holgersen.....either Kelly...Gundy....or Stoops
*guys that believe in pushing the ball until final whistle
Miles is simply NOT a great bully....this is proven over the years.....consider Richt....Stoops....or maybe Kiffin week 1.....as they have shown us they like to beat the hell out of people....Pinkel and Tedford not bad either > Petrino of course the MAN......
*last time LSU scored over 50....EARLY in the year vs a patsy.....was 2004.....when Saban was HC (evil person )........LATER in the season.....Miles will keep the throttle down a little longer
BUT.....if you're making 20+ or so bets....sure LSU should be OK.....if making 5 or so......NO
No real ANGLE here....unless you see where Miles states publicly that Tigers need a great/dominant outing +++
combined with McCarney saying...."we're banged up and just need to escape with as few injuries+++".....
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bookieassassin |
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#54 Posted: 7/10/2012 3:10:17 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney: bookie i respectfully disagree with UMASS,
they are ready to make the Jump from D-1AA to D-1A
they should be 13th or so in the MAC but i dont think they are bottom 5
UTSO, SO. Alabama, Akron are really bad
memphis will be bad again,
Both New MExico's will be bad, but NMST is better than they have been
i think Idaho is going to be horrid.
FAU is goign to be horrid
texas state might not win a game at this level for a while
I like UMass too.....just kinda going with Steele's Power Ratings...page 331
he has UMass #122
Minutemen have played a tough FCS schedule.....and proven to be a tough dog when playing the big boys...
but learning new systems TY....and losing HF advantage essentially (moving to Patriots stadium)....and on a 3 year run of 16-17 SU.....lost to a BAD BC team 45-17 LY (+9)
Figure you gotta put the new 4 at the bottom.....but yah no shocker if any prove to be better than the usual suspects....Akron...NMex....UAB.....Memphis...Idaho+++
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BamaPiks |
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#55 Posted: 7/10/2012 3:19:37 PM
As you for you not being impressed, I'm good with that. I promise you I will not lose sleep over it. Take care and BOL. |
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lsufasteddie |
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#56 Posted: 7/10/2012 3:29:17 PM This will still be a run first offense. Overall depth could lead to a cover but I wouldn't lay that kind of chalk.
Front 5 avg. 6'5" 315 
C PJ Lonergan 6-4, 305, SR
RG Josh Williford 6-7, 324, JR
LG Josh Dworaczyk, 6-6, 301, SR
RT Chris Faulk 6-6, 325, JR
LT Alex Hurst 6-6, 329, SR
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ApocalypseLater |
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#57 Posted: 7/10/2012 5:43:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BamaPiks:
That is not my statement apocalypse. I am new to covers. You had to be new to covers at one time or another. Been betting College Football for appx 10 years. I've bet other sports which I do not follow as closely...end result hasn't been that great on those sports. I created a covers account to read thoughts and opinions. So far, I have found a few members (in my short covers career) that I look forward to following.
As you for you not being impressed, I'm good with that. I promise you I will not lose sleep over it. Take care and BOL.
fair enough! i'm always open to being proven wrong...
i've seen a lot of people come in talking a bigger game than what they can prove... your posts so far resemble those... but results speak louder, so hopefully you can bring value to the table...
i will say that your statement that laying points in games against cupcakes is stupid... is a statement that you will one day realize needs a retraction!
i've been doing this for 30 years... i bet CFB, NFL, CBB and NBA, along with various other events... if i were able to list my top 20 all-time easiest winning bets, i am guessing 10 of them would be CFB games where i was laying 20+ points with a team playing against a patsy!
obviously you don't win by betting every favorite in every mismatch... and LSU is not a team that thrives in that role... but choice spots can be found...
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bookieassassin |
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#58 Posted: 7/10/2012 5:51:37 PM
either / both teams tend to lose focus......and the end result is extremely tough to predict
*tho mainly a sense of pride maybe.....as it's thought of as an amateurish type play by many.......
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ApocalypseLater |
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#59 Posted: 7/10/2012 7:27:21 PM
personally, i abandoned the idea of "sharp and square" bets in any kind of a generalized sense a long time ago... in fact, i think it is "square" to only bet one type of scenario... in my experience, every situation has to be evaluated independently, and if you pigeon-hole yourself into a limited type of thinking, you are handicapping yourself, not the games...
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#60 Posted: 7/10/2012 8:03:22 PM |
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LonghornHoosier |
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#61 Posted: 7/10/2012 8:41:11 PM there is never "too many points to lay"...there is a reason why the spread is what it is...like someone said, do your research, evaluate each matchup and look for value versus the spread...try to predict the finakl score based on the matchup and motivation and then compare it to the spread...as i have said before, lsu will be mega motivated in this first game...some of you advocate, "it won't matter if LSU wins by 7 or 70...i disagree strongly in this game...if you have done your research, the whole freaking backwards assed state of Louisiana was embarrassed by the teams performance in the NC game...they want blood and they want to feel good...fruitcake miles is going to in the words of the Waterboy "open a can of whoop behind" on North Texas and it will not be pretty...LSU gets some of its moxie and manhood back, and North Texas gets a payday and a solid scrimmage to get them ready for Sun Belt play...
LSU 56
North Texas 0 |
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jdnmoney |
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#62 Posted: 7/10/2012 9:32:08 PM
i would bet that game up to 50-55 for OKST .
Savannah State has had 11 consecutive losing seasons and have NEVER played a team at the FBS (D-1A) level.
OKST has arizona on deck, but i cannot imagine a scenario where they dont score on every single possession, record at least 8 sacks and accumulate 4 defensive turnovers.
this one looks like the blowout Boys,  |
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bookieassassin |
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#63 Posted: 7/10/2012 10:41:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
point taken, BA!
personally, i abandoned the idea of "sharp and square" bets in any kind of a generalized sense a long time ago... in fact, i think it is "square" to only bet one type of scenario... in my experience, every situation has to be evaluated independently, and if you pigeon-hole yourself into a limited type of thinking, you are handicapping yourself, not the games...
agreed....smart thing is to simply bet the NUMBER (whatever it is)....not the TEAM < a Covers staple.......
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RetainLane |
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#64 Posted: 7/11/2012 4:28:52 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by eddothebook:
I don't think I can trust this over-spoiled auto-NC qualifying piece of garbage boring team anymore.
Last year I believe they covered 6 spreads in a row. Then came the game against Kentucky. LSU had won the previous 2 meeting by a combined score of 89-0.
They barely, methodically score 35 in 4 quarters all while holding UK to almost no offense. Then on the final drive, literally allow Kentucky to walk into the end, while producing more yards than all the game combined.
The spread was 31.
That was my fondest back door cover of the year. For what it's worth, I'm with Jdnmoney on N.Texas vs. LSU. |
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eddothebook |
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#65 Posted: 7/11/2012 4:40:21 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney: if you really want to bet a BIG spread, Longhorn. bet OKST vs Savannah State.
i would bet that game up to 50-55 for OKST .
Savannah State has had 11 consecutive losing seasons and have NEVER played a team at the FBS (D-1A) level.
OKST has arizona on deck, but i cannot imagine a scenario where they dont score on every single possession, record at least 8 sacks and accumulate 4 defensive turnovers.
this one looks like the blowout Boys,
Will that game even be up for betting 
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DoubleUp4Life |
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#66 Posted: 7/11/2012 10:52:51 AM |
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jdnmoney |
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#67 Posted: 7/12/2012 8:12:12 PM
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Capper007 |
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#68 Posted: 7/12/2012 9:56:57 PM |
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Capper007 |
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#69 Posted: 7/12/2012 9:59:49 PM |
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LonghornHoosier |
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#70 Posted: 7/12/2012 10:53:55 PM some of your goes are questioning the estimated big number in this game, but none of you have conveyed an argument on why they won't cover...its a large number,LSU's O sucks...you are not looking at this matchup and your are underestimating LSU's motivation in this game...in addition, you are overestimating N Texas ability to score...if you guys want to go against LSU in this game, then do it,if you are so confident....of those of you are adament about LSU's in ability to cover -42 over N Texas in this game, who has the guts to post that they will literally take N Texas in this game and make a significant wager (over $500)...yea, that's what I thought... |
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jdnmoney |
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#71 Posted: 7/12/2012 11:09:55 PM
- LSU will play super conservative and un-revealing with Washington on deck
- LSU will want to escape without injury because they have Washington on deck
- Starters for LSU will play until the end of the 3rd, when the game will be comfortably in hand.
- No. Texas will either score a garbage TD in the 1st Q (broken Coverage, Long Run, Pick 6) or in the 4th Q (vs the LSU 2nd or even 3rd team)
- we are still talking about a college QB for LSU that has yet to play one snap of meaningful college football
I am just not convinced LSU will cover and if this spread reaches 45 I will make a significant wager on No. Texas, and i will be more than willing to snapshot my wagering slip as well.
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jdnmoney |
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#72 Posted: 7/12/2012 11:17:12 PM
- LSU will pull there starters with 5 mins left in the 3rd
- LSU is completely unmotivated to blow out a team they have no interest in playing
- LSU doesnt play absolutely perfect (0 TO's, 65+% on 3rd down, less than 200 total yards for UNT, several short fields)
- NT doesnt have 2+ turnovers in the 1st half
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jdnmoney |
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#73 Posted: 7/31/2012 11:25:31 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater: the kind of banter that goes on in this forum is comical at times... first of all, BookieAssassin hit on most key points, and is the post you should be reading if you are interested in this game... but i will lay out a few points of my own... 1) the spread on this game will NOT be 40+... yes, LSU has been favored by 40+ points frequently over the years... but those are midseason games... the books do not post lines of 40+ in week 1... just doesn't happen!  2) LSU is never a good bet to cover a 40 pt spread! they are not that kind of team... they call off the dogs too early, and their offense is not potent enough... 3) i don't see how what happened at the end of last year serves as a strong angle for betting this game... just think those kinds of "angles" are over-rated and over-used... if that is your reason for betting on LSU, i think you are taking the wrong approach! GL!
ive got UNT +45 and i have locked in. 
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jdnmoney |
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#74 Posted: 7/31/2012 11:26:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater: there will be some great bets in week 1... but if i could bet on this, i would put my entire bankroll on the fact that the line will not be 45 or more... i would bet half my bankroll that it won't be higher than 42...and Lar1212... week 1 is not a week to pick underdogs... not sure where you are coming up with that theory, but i have to assume it isn't based on experience... |
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LonghornHoosier |
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#75 Posted: 8/1/2012 12:05:40 AM |
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