Gentlemen...there is shite all over this one. It looks too easy.....America isn't in the business of giving up 10-15% of easy money. This is a slam dunk, right?
For the record, I hate this matchup:
1) Floyd will not stop, nor knockout McGregor.
2) McGregor's cardio is world class. He will not gas out.
3) McGregor will be MUCH bigger at fight time.
4) McGregor will have rocks inside of his gloves, no matter how many ounces they are.
5) THESE ODDS STINK!!!!!!!! Mortgages will be bet on Floyd.....and rightfully so...but the covers expert touting only a 3% chance of Connor winning is high on crack/methadone. Connor kicks like a mule, and if 1 punch lands in 12 rounds this thing changes dramatically. It is more like 25%.......but the odds should reflect the 3!!!!! They don't. :(
I hate everything about this wager, on both sides. Floyd has to pitch a shutout....on a guy that will create weird angles, and with no real tape to study. Not good.
Connor has to beat 49-0 at that weight class. Good luck son...you aint winning on the cards. Put him in a corner and maul him.......same gameplan as the 49 guys before you.
So, this sucks. If I get Floyd under -400, bingo. If I get Connor at 10-1, then great. Anything else is just terrible gambling.
Gentlemen...there is shite all over this one. It looks too easy.....America isn't in the business of giving up 10-15% of easy money. This is a slam dunk, right?
For the record, I hate this matchup:
1) Floyd will not stop, nor knockout McGregor.
2) McGregor's cardio is world class. He will not gas out.
3) McGregor will be MUCH bigger at fight time.
4) McGregor will have rocks inside of his gloves, no matter how many ounces they are.
5) THESE ODDS STINK!!!!!!!! Mortgages will be bet on Floyd.....and rightfully so...but the covers expert touting only a 3% chance of Connor winning is high on crack/methadone. Connor kicks like a mule, and if 1 punch lands in 12 rounds this thing changes dramatically. It is more like 25%.......but the odds should reflect the 3!!!!! They don't. :(
I hate everything about this wager, on both sides. Floyd has to pitch a shutout....on a guy that will create weird angles, and with no real tape to study. Not good.
Connor has to beat 49-0 at that weight class. Good luck son...you aint winning on the cards. Put him in a corner and maul him.......same gameplan as the 49 guys before you.
So, this sucks. If I get Floyd under -400, bingo. If I get Connor at 10-1, then great. Anything else is just terrible gambling.
There may be historical results that back up a yearly positive return for laying large ML favorites. I don't dispute that.....
But what ends up killing guys that bet or trade securities in this fashion is a run of consecutive losers. I have been trading futures for 7 years, and I can tell you that high probability trades exist every day...but when 2 or 3 of them get cracked in a row, your account is in real trouble.
It is not just how one loses, but when one loses. A heavy ML juice strategy may be profitable over the long haul, but successive losses can wipe the account out.
That is why, in my opinion, long term ROI numbers are very near meaningless......most are based on historical analysis, which opens us up to all sorts of hindsight bias. Not to mention, most heavy juice systems involve some form of Martingale to make up big losses....
Don't take any of this stuff personal...I am just speaking from experience....
I watched one of my partners develop a system for trading Crude Oil futures that was "historically" a winner. He optimized stop losses and profit targets for maximum profitability, and watched his "system" blow up (to the tune of 20k) in the first month. Basically, he figured out the best way to trade last year's market. When it comes to speculation of any kind, approaches that are "academically sound" are usually flawed.
But, there are no rules in gambling. If you can make a system like this work, then best of luck, and go get 'em! As long as it is making you money, then it is the correct answer.
There may be historical results that back up a yearly positive return for laying large ML favorites. I don't dispute that.....
But what ends up killing guys that bet or trade securities in this fashion is a run of consecutive losers. I have been trading futures for 7 years, and I can tell you that high probability trades exist every day...but when 2 or 3 of them get cracked in a row, your account is in real trouble.
It is not just how one loses, but when one loses. A heavy ML juice strategy may be profitable over the long haul, but successive losses can wipe the account out.
That is why, in my opinion, long term ROI numbers are very near meaningless......most are based on historical analysis, which opens us up to all sorts of hindsight bias. Not to mention, most heavy juice systems involve some form of Martingale to make up big losses....
Don't take any of this stuff personal...I am just speaking from experience....
I watched one of my partners develop a system for trading Crude Oil futures that was "historically" a winner. He optimized stop losses and profit targets for maximum profitability, and watched his "system" blow up (to the tune of 20k) in the first month. Basically, he figured out the best way to trade last year's market. When it comes to speculation of any kind, approaches that are "academically sound" are usually flawed.
But, there are no rules in gambling. If you can make a system like this work, then best of luck, and go get 'em! As long as it is making you money, then it is the correct answer.
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