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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
yysmer send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#126
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:07:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one. 

I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game. 

Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though. 

I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.  


I know what you are saying. Public favors always get killed by Vegas. But if you use "http://www.freesportsbet.com/scores/nba.html" you can see that the bet amount for the Lakers' game today is much lower than the last one. Vegas tend to give away the light games and take the heavy ones.
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#127
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:08:43 AM
Another thing I've thought about is who knows how accurate that data is anyways, from those sites. They can tell you the money is on whatever side they want you to think it's on. 

I have a friend that is in the sports betting business and he tells me first hand who people are taking. Between this inside info and knowing the public like favorites and overs, etc, I feel I have a pretty good feel for who the busters really are betting on. 

When it's 50/50 we pretty much no-play it, unless its a big move on a dog or under, and that's that. Fortunately it's almost never like that though. Trust me when I say that there are plenty of plays throughout the week. 


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#128
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:12:41 AM
My buddy told me all the busters were on the Lakers tonight. He liked the Lakers too though lol. Swear to God. 

I'm an honest dude and I was wrong on Denver. I'm a buster too though. lol alright guys tomorrow 
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#129
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:19:14 AM
How do you bet against the Lakers? Kobe, Bynum, Pau? And the shooters going off.  I mean I get your system. The casino makes profit because the MAJORITY of players are busting, that's got to be the case. Therefor you bet against the majority, assuming the majority is tipped to one side or another. If it's not then you don't bet. But sometimes the teams matter. 
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#130
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:27:18 AM
Alex. We didn't end up betting against the lakers tonight because the line moved back the other direction. Sharp money definitely doesn't win 100% of the time but we have to assume they win more than the public. So your correct about sometimes the teams matter as Czech said in the beginning of this thread " sometimes you just have to follow your gut feeling". At the end of the day we're all here to help each other beat the books.
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#131
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:29:58 AM
Yeah man it was supposed to be close no matter what. I liked Denver as a matter of opinion. 

This is the whole reason I'm working a system, to detour around the buster thought process. I don't have to pick games when I can follow the sharps. I don't know as much about these teams as they or Vegas do and don't need to. 

That's why this game was a no play 
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#132
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:33:31 AM
Alright guys good discussion tonight we're getting somewhere fast! Tomorrow we'll crank it up. I just peeked at the card and am not in love at first sight but I'm sure those lines will tell us something tomorrow. 
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#133
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:34:50 AM
Alex sounds like he's thinking the system picked Denver or something. Alex read the whole thread we never said anything like that. It was a no-play from the word hello 
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#134
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:38:14 AM
Makes sense. I still have a buster type of mind
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#135
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:39:23 AM
Guys to avoid confusion when I announce a system play you will know it. We discussed Denver earlier from our own opinions but were very clear about it NOT being a system play. 

Let's keep it straight 
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#136
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:40:35 AM
Alex I didn't mean it like that and no one has a bigger buster frame of mind then me sometimes though I'm trying to curb this lol

We're all busters sometimes 
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#137
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:43:49 AM
I am so with you. I want to curb it.
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#138
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:44:26 AM
What I meant w read the whole thread if you need to catch up on the discussion. 

The reason I'm afraid to discuss any personal picks in here is cuz people will confuse them with system plays and judge the system accordingly. 

I started the thread to evaluate the system. 


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#139
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:45:56 AM
Man I can't type tonight lol stupid iPad. 

We're curbing it already man you will see. System is hot right now got W9 today with the Bulls under. 
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#140
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:52:21 AM
Sorry if I confused anyone. I was just posting situations that were originally trending in our direction just so we could watch them and see where they ended up. That's why its important to wait until right before tipoff. 
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#141
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:47:57 AM
I agree kendawg 

Man I need to get a profile pic all our posts look the same lol
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#142
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:50:52 AM
Listen guys it's a lot of fun being in a good thread every day. I can't discuss things with myself SL everyone is welcomed to join in. We're looking to encourage not discourage. 

I would like the system plays to remain the main matter of topic but you guys are more than welcome to bring not only your thoughts but your plays as well. We can look at whatever you want to look at. 
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#143
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:51:39 AM
SL was supposed to be "so" - stupid autocorrect
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#144
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:53:16 AM
I love how positive this thread is! all hail the great Czech!
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#145
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:54:09 AM
We took a good honest look at Denver and deemed it a no-play. No big deal. Man I hate that the NBA is almost over. Football's a long way away 
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#146
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:03:39 AM
Depending on where you picked up, you may or may not know that the goal here is getting to $100k. Everyone keep that in mind. 

Guys, my goal is 60%+ accuracy for the system plays in this thread. So far 4-0. 

At 60%, on -110 games, our EV = 14% per game. 

I've started with a $3k bankroll betting $200 per game, and going to double down every time the bankroll doubles. 

At 60% the bankroll doubles every 107 games or so. 

Within 550 or so games (on average) we reach $100k, as long as we're running at 60%. If you think it takes a long time to get to 550 games, it doesn't. Especially when college comes back. 

And we don't have to stop there either. At that level we're betting $3200 a game and our EV (14%) is $448 per game. Imagine betting 2 games a day on average and profiting $900 a day on average. 

This is where I'm trying to get to, and you guys are getting in at ground 0, since we just started yesterday. Gonna be interesting. 


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#147
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:12:06 AM
Alright check out my new avatar lol
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#148
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:14:04 AM
i don't understand why my avatar pic isn't showing up 
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#149
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:41:11 PM
Yo everybody. Hope everyone's having a great day so far. Can't wait to get some good discussion goin this evening. Peace out
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#150
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:10:11 PM
Yeah kendawg that was fun last night. Just cranked up the computer so haven't even seen the lines yet....
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