Messages

race 6

4 WP

7/2 ml.  speed, pace, pattern, distance (fyi when I list these it is a playable angle in my view or something that stands out relative to the expected odds).  this one should set up for a stalk and pounce or winner from off the zip.  1 and 6 should be out front and both are nailable IMO.  6 folded late off the bench last time off a long layoff.  this 4 did not fire in his comeback but is 2nd off the shelf and should perk up.  last time he was 2nd off he ran a nice one (94 beyer with strong pace ran a solid 2nd and Ellis is decent 2nd off).  the 5 will come late but can he get up in time?  maybe the 4 gets the jump at the sixteenth and can hold on.  

7 WP

6/1 ml.  G1 American Oaks.  10F.  I don't see any superstars in here despite what the media is saying.  i see some gals that make a move into a 9F finish or soften up in the final furlong going 9F.  i will play against any of the U.S. horses running a new high fig at this distance. distance, stamina, late speed with this 7.  i think she might like the pool table lightning quick green in Inglewood.  most of her races were with moisture in the ground.  the one race on the lawn rated "good" is where she won easily taking the lead at the furlong pole and drawing away.  always a risk with shippers but i will give her a shot to be moving the best late in the lane going 10F here.  from formulator:  last two the trainer sent across the pond were a G1 winner and a 2nd in a G2.  NOTE;  risk here on class (tough to make apples to apples comparison) but like I said willing to swing against the others in here.

race 9

3 WP

15/1 ml.  speed, pace, pattern, trainer.  another race where I do not see any major force.  they will chase the figs on this 7 but i will play that she can't run those going 7/8ths on synthetic against this field.  first time in a long time Baffert has gotten this gal to run on a consistent schedule.  he went easy on her after her comeback win at 6.5F.  two easy 4F spins.  maybe he feels she's fit and ready to go and hence the jump up the ladder.  like i said no monsters so at 15/1 i will give her a shot to sit just off the pace and give it a decent effort.

good luck fellas

You should feel even better now about your play

   Roused is 0-7 on plays he made a smartass comment about in someone else's thread

good luck to you as well today.  i'll sneak in some full day action with Spa/Beach.  not fond of the NYRA card today and don't like the other races at Holly.