Posted: 8/19/2012 12:53:14 PM
So...let me preface this by saying that my last BIG loss in the WNBA was taking the Mercury +10 vs. the Sparks in PHX. Watching that game, it was evident that the Sparks were able to completely dominate the boards leading to multiple 2nd and 3rd chance opportunities and ended up covering. Certainly didn't help that Charde Houston got injured midway through the 2nd half, leading to an LA blowout.
That being said, I see Phx getting +11 at home, and I cannot help myself. The only way that I can see this not covering is if Taurasi DOES NOT PLAY.
There are multiple things that factor into this thinking. First, let's get to line value. Silver Stars on a ridiculous winning streak right now, add inflation, Mercury getting creamed in Seattle last game by double digits (Taurasi did not play), add inflation. Line movement from -9 to -11, add value. Lots and lots of value on the home dog here.
Now is Taurasi playing? Phx stood no chance in Seattle with Taurasi, Taylor, Dupree, and Houston out. If you watched the Olympics at all, Taurasi looks fine and recovered from her hip injury. The stated reason for her not playing in the Seattle game was delayed return from London. I assume that Phx is still paying her a paycheck, so there is no reason that I could see her not playing in this game.
Also, I don't think of the Silver Stars and Sparks in the same way when it comes to post presence. The Sparks are BIG down low, that is their strength. The Silver Stars are more of a shoot you out of the gym type of team, so I think the Mercury match up better with them.
Overall, just too much value...going big on the Mercury +11.
On other games...Chicago at Washington could really go either way, with Prince back though, Chicago should have enough to win, not confident in Chicago's game though, seen in me going huge against them when they played Atlanta.
Tulsa game, value's on Tulsa game, obviously. The way the last two games against the Lynx played, the way they always seem to play the Lynx is close one half, blown out the other. I plan on betting this one by halves. Doubling up if the first one loses.
Thoughts and comments welcome.