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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Tuesday Hoops
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#26
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:22:35 PM
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#27
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:23:32 PM
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#28
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:29:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheLevel:

UMASS +8 (-110) Game ...Risking 6 Units


When looking at this game I have found one area where UMASS has the obvious advantage and that is height and rebounding ability. I believe UMASS will have the edge on the glass which will create second chance points and keep this game within reach of winning straightup or at least covering this rather large game spread. Drexel's biggest guy on the floor during most of the game will be Senior Forward Samme Givens who stands 6' 5" 220 Lbs. and is there teams leading rebounder averaging only 7.8 rebounds per game. The teams 2nd leading rebounder is 6' 9" Junior Daryl McCoy who doesn't play enough minutes to make a huge impact in this game, but he only averages 6.7 rebounds per game. McCoy has only had a total of 9 rebounds in the past 3 games combined. Drexel is a short team, they average 35 rebounds per game this season. In this past game versus N Iowa they struggled on the glass and it showed, it was the teams main problem in that game which allowed N Iowa second chance opp's and Drexel barely pulled out the win by 2 pts as a 7 pt home favorite. In that game N Iowa out-rebounded Drexel 30 to 20, 7 to 3 in offensive boards, bc of that N Iowa managed 4 more FG attempts in that game. On the flip side, UMASS rebounds real well as a team, they average 40 rebounds per game. UMASS features 6' 9" Soph Raphiael Putney who averages 6.1 rpg, 6' 9" Senior Sean Carter who averages 6.6 rpg but has come on very strong lately and is a difference maker on both sides of the court, he as a total of 39 rebounds in his past 4 games (11,12,8 & 8). 6' 7" Junior Terrell Vinson averages 5 rpg, and the guards rebound well with 5' 9" PG speedster Chazz Williams from Brooklyn, NY averaging 4.4 rpg, 6' 5" Jessie Morgan averages 3 rpg. Morgan is from Philly, PA and will be playing his 4th game this season in his hometown of Philly, look for him to have a great game tonight in front of fam and friends, he averages 10.1 ppg and recently had 21 points in this huge win over Temple. In UMASS' last games versus the tough and physical Miss State Bulldogs UMASS controlled the glass and that imo was the eventual difference in the game as UMASS won in 2 OT, they beat Miss St on the glass to the tune of 51 to 38, on the offensive glass 19 to 10!! This gave UMASS 15 more FG attempts in the game! Last game out a huge win on the road again @ Seton Hall they did the exact same thing to the fiesty and talented Pirates, beating them on the glass 38 to 34. In that game Herb Pope had his way downlow with 15 rebounds but even with that as a team they out-rebounded the Pirates. Drexel is very good defensively, but they prefer to keep possessions low and with the above mentioned rebounding advantage for UMASS I see those extra possessions and shot attempts playing a crucial role in UMASS' cover of the spread tonight. Drexel wins 70-66 IMO.

Another sidenote:

Both UMASS coach Derek Kellogg and Drexel's Bruiser Flint know eachother VERY well, Bruiser coached at UMASS up until 11 years ago, Derek Kellogg played at UMASS and now HC. I believe this game comes down to the wire.


You're putting a ton of emphasis on rebounding. Not saying I disagree with any of it, just think the emphasis on rebounding is a weeeee bit too much. This Drexel team, despite being small as you say (they're still decently big in the back-court), has controlled the defensive glass for the better part of the last two years. Last year, they were the best rebounding team in the country, this year currently rank 14th. It's a testament not only to the effort, but the style as well.

Where this gets even more dicey in in terms of how this game is played. Sure, Umass out-rebounded MSU on the offensive glass and got a ton more shot attempts. The game also hit 91 possessions.

Sure, they did the same with Seton Hall, but the game hit 70 possessions. In a slower game tonight (I would think b/c Drexel has only played a couple games over 70 possessions all year), those offensive rebounding #'s and extra shot attempts are really minimized, if not cut in half.

In addition to that, the pace at which this game is a really interesting spot in connection with the size. There is no doubt in my mind that Drexel wants to play slow, but at the same time, if this game does get into the up and down style that Umass wants to exhibit, the size advantage really becomes masked, and you have a Drexel team with four, sometimes five guards out on the court in that style.

Just my opinion. Game is certainly one of the more interesting match-ups I've seen as of late and I think arguments can be made on both sides.

(One more mini-tidbit on rebounding...I hate the stat. I've never found it useful. Yah, it can help with size and all of that jazz, but essentially, if a team can play good defense, then it's going to have good opportunities to rebound missed shots. If they don't defend well, then they aren't going to rebound b/c the shot goes through the net. Now add in the styles that all of these different teams play and Team A who plays an average of 73 possessions rebounds better than a team that plays at 60 possessions, etc...along with scheme zone or man, which is easier to offensive rebound against and on and on. One of the more worthless stats in my opinion. If you can shut down the other team and force missed shots, then you're going to have more opportunities to give up 2nd chance points, but you'll also have more opportunities to gather up rebounds. Look at Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Ohio, Baylor, Cincy = all of these teams suck at rebounding the basketball, all are in the bottom 3rd in the country at doing it, but all find themselves in the Sweet 16 b/c they can defend. Sorry for rant, just a personal opinion)

GL
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#29
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:33:54 PM
^

And one more thing. Teams are never as good as they played the previous game, and teams are also never as bad as they played the previous game. You will never find value if you're basing a play off of what happened two days ago against a totally different style of a team. Teams take nights off, teams look ahead, teams sometimes just don't show up. 

Comparing snail UNI who enjoys the slow paced game that Drexel employs is a much, much different task than playing a Umass team that enjoyed playing up and down with Seton Hall and MSU.
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#30
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:34:01 PM
No I love the insight, thank you very much! I agree with a lot of your input. Good luck to you!
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#31
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:41:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheLevel:

Good luck NRopp! I will be tailing your Wash play!

What is your take on the line movement towards Drexel with most of the money being on UMASS? Line opened at +6.5 now is +8 currently?..thnx

Spend my time looking at the game and the match-ups within it. 

Me + line movements = win some, lose some. 

If you're looking at making a play on the game on the favorite, you need to set your key #. If it's tight toward the end of the game, when does Umass quit fouling? When they're down 7, or is it when they're down 8? Key # in the NBA is 7, but I think if one was to put some research into it at the college level, it would be a bit higher, especially in the post-season tournaments. 

Unfortunately, I don't have that answer...until next year.

(Drexel doesn't miss FT's either if it comes down to it, so difference of 6.5 or 8 eh, not really all that much)
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#32
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:59:39 PM
Let's get it tonight Neil . . . . . Thanks,
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#33
Posted: 3/20/2012 6:01:06 PM
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#34
Posted: 3/20/2012 6:20:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Matador0927:

Let's get it tonight Neil . . . . . Thanks,

Love your avatar!

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#35
Posted: 3/20/2012 6:28:17 PM
GL 
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#36
Posted: 3/20/2012 6:43:30 PM
Lets not get to caught up with that big Oregon win against Washington in Eugene. 

Washington had problems arriving to the arena on game day.  Due to travel complications, the Huskies didn't arrive at the arena until a half hour before tip off.

Imagine being a 19 year old kid and showing up a half hour before tip off in a hostile environment like Matthew Knight Arena. 

I watched that whole game, the Huskies looked like a team that didn't have a chance to warm up.  They pretty much got thrown in the fire in that game. 
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#37
Posted: 3/20/2012 7:29:56 PM
good luck man, u were right on the money with drexel being able to rebound
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#38
Posted: 3/20/2012 7:55:07 PM
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#39
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:05:12 PM
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#40
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:31:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blanka:

Lets not get to caught up with that big Oregon win against Washington in Eugene. 

Washington had problems arriving to the arena on game day.  Due to travel complications, the Huskies didn't arrive at the arena until a half hour before tip off.

Imagine being a 19 year old kid and showing up a half hour before tip off in a hostile environment like Matthew Knight Arena. 

I watched that whole game, the Huskies looked like a team that didn't have a chance to warm up.  They pretty much got thrown in the fire in that game. 

  

I'm riding Blanka. Let's cash this. 
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#41
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:32:59 PM
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#42
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:43:35 PM
Drex has 23 rebounds to 9,but UMASS is now looking like the better team after getting beat the FH.
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#43
Posted: 3/20/2012 9:33:36 PM
Any 2H bet on th OR/WA game?
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#44
Posted: 3/20/2012 11:26:25 PM
what just happened?
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#45
Posted: 3/20/2012 11:27:18 PM
Wow, we got screwed on the rebound

Back at it tomorrow
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#46
Posted: 3/20/2012 11:28:11 PM
What a Joke
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#47
Posted: 3/20/2012 11:30:00 PM
tough loss there. been coming close finally thought I was gonna hit a 4 teamer, all i had left was milwaukee bucks and they winning. darn. shoulda knwn if i like something u liked then that would be the day you lose on something totally stupid like that play. im cursed
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#48
Posted: 3/20/2012 11:30:18 PM
that one hurts
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#49
Posted: 3/21/2012 9:20:48 AM
Kind of felt it was coming when they allowed Oregon to take 3 consecutive 3's
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