Posted: 3/20/2012 5:29:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheLevel:
UMASS +8 (-110) Game ...Risking 6 Units
When looking at this
game I have found one area where UMASS has the obvious advantage and
that is height and rebounding ability. I believe UMASS will have the
edge on the glass which will create second chance points and keep this
game within reach of winning straightup or at least covering this rather
large game spread. Drexel's biggest guy on the floor during most of the
game will be Senior Forward Samme Givens who stands 6' 5" 220 Lbs. and
is there teams leading rebounder averaging only 7.8 rebounds per game.
The teams 2nd leading rebounder is 6' 9" Junior Daryl McCoy who doesn't
play enough minutes to make a huge impact in this game, but he only
averages 6.7 rebounds per game. McCoy has only had a total of 9 rebounds
in the past 3 games combined. Drexel is a short team, they average 35
rebounds per game this season. In this past game versus N Iowa they
struggled on the glass and it showed, it was the teams main problem in
that game which allowed N Iowa second chance opp's and Drexel barely
pulled out the win by 2 pts as a 7 pt home favorite. In that game N Iowa
out-rebounded Drexel 30 to 20, 7 to 3 in offensive boards, bc of that N
Iowa managed 4 more FG attempts in that game. On the flip side, UMASS
rebounds real well as a team, they average 40 rebounds per game. UMASS
features 6' 9" Soph Raphiael Putney who averages 6.1 rpg, 6' 9" Senior
Sean Carter who averages 6.6 rpg but has come on very strong lately and
is a difference maker on both sides of the court, he as a total of 39
rebounds in his past 4 games (11,12,8 & 8). 6' 7" Junior Terrell
Vinson averages 5 rpg, and the guards rebound well with 5' 9" PG
speedster Chazz Williams from Brooklyn, NY averaging 4.4 rpg, 6' 5"
Jessie Morgan averages 3 rpg. Morgan is from Philly, PA and will be
playing his 4th game this season in his hometown of Philly, look for him
to have a great game tonight in front of fam and friends, he averages
10.1 ppg and recently had 21 points in this huge win over Temple. In
UMASS' last games versus the tough and physical Miss State Bulldogs
UMASS controlled the glass and that imo was the eventual difference in
the game as UMASS won in 2 OT, they beat Miss St on the glass to the
tune of 51 to 38, on the offensive glass 19 to 10!! This gave UMASS 15
more FG attempts in the game! Last game out a huge win on the road again
@ Seton Hall they did the exact same thing to the fiesty and talented
Pirates, beating them on the glass 38 to 34. In that game Herb Pope had
his way downlow with 15 rebounds but even with that as a team they
out-rebounded the Pirates. Drexel is very good defensively, but they
prefer to keep possessions low and with the above mentioned rebounding
advantage for UMASS I see those extra possessions and shot attempts
playing a crucial role in UMASS' cover of the spread tonight. Drexel
wins 70-66 IMO.
Both UMASS coach Derek Kellogg and
Drexel's Bruiser Flint know eachother VERY well, Bruiser coached at
UMASS up until 11 years ago, Derek Kellogg played at UMASS and now HC. I
believe this game comes down to the wire.
You're putting a ton of emphasis on rebounding. Not saying I disagree with any of it, just think the emphasis on rebounding is a weeeee bit too much. This Drexel team, despite being small as you say (they're still decently big in the back-court), has controlled the defensive glass for the better part of the last two years. Last year, they were the best rebounding team in the country, this year currently rank 14th. It's a testament not only to the effort, but the style as well.
Where this gets even more dicey in in terms of how this game is played. Sure, Umass out-rebounded MSU on the offensive glass and got a ton more shot attempts. The game also hit 91 possessions.
Sure, they did the same with Seton Hall, but the game hit 70 possessions. In a slower game tonight (I would think b/c Drexel has only played a couple games over 70 possessions all year), those offensive rebounding #'s and extra shot attempts are really minimized, if not cut in half.
In addition to that, the pace at which this game is a really interesting spot in connection with the size. There is no doubt in my mind that Drexel wants to play slow, but at the same time, if this game does get into the up and down style that Umass wants to exhibit, the size advantage really becomes masked, and you have a Drexel team with four, sometimes five guards out on the court in that style.
Just my opinion. Game is certainly one of the more interesting match-ups I've seen as of late and I think arguments can be made on both sides.
(One more mini-tidbit on rebounding...I hate the stat. I've never found it useful. Yah, it can help with size and all of that jazz, but essentially, if a team can play good defense, then it's going to have good opportunities to rebound missed shots. If they don't defend well, then they aren't going to rebound b/c the shot goes through the net. Now add in the styles that all of these different teams play and Team A who plays an average of 73 possessions rebounds better than a team that plays at 60 possessions, etc...along with scheme zone or man, which is easier to offensive rebound against and on and on. One of the more worthless stats in my opinion. If you can shut down the other team and force missed shots, then you're going to have more opportunities to give up 2nd chance points, but you'll also have more opportunities to gather up rebounds. Look at Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Ohio, Baylor, Cincy = all of these teams suck at rebounding the basketball, all are in the bottom 3rd in the country at doing it, but all find themselves in the Sweet 16 b/c they can defend. Sorry for rant, just a personal opinion)