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[NFL Betting] Topic: Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share |
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PTOTOUR |
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#251 Posted: 12/3/2012 8:18:04 PM G MEN IT IS  |
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Kazual12 |
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#252 Posted: 12/3/2012 8:27:36 PM  Good luck tonight! |
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Kazual12 |
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#253 Posted: 12/3/2012 8:28:48 PM |
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Fenway4 |
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#254 Posted: 12/3/2012 8:50:40 PM |
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shindo03 |
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#255 Posted: 12/3/2012 11:59:30 PM |
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shindo03 |
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#256 Posted: 12/3/2012 11:59:52 PM |
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Mick960 |
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#257 Posted: 12/4/2012 12:03:37 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mick960:
did you enter a monday night single game prime time against the public factor Joe? Overall you gotta great system but as I warned you MNF is a different deal! Next time champ! |
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casinoroyal |
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#258 Posted: 12/4/2012 12:05:20 AM  |
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Mick960 |
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#259 Posted: 12/4/2012 12:48:02 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by casinoroyal: good hit tonight Mick960 |
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AFNfootballnerd |
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#260 Posted: 12/4/2012 2:38:00 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mick960: Overall you gotta great system but as I warned you MNF is a different deal! Next time champ!
Good call on washington
So Program is 9-6 overall not the best numbers....hopeing to see some improvement next week
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JAl239 |
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#261 Posted: 12/4/2012 11:29:19 PM
But overall it is pretty good. Thanks for all the hard work.
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AFNfootballnerd |
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#262 Posted: 12/5/2012 3:01:55 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by JAl239:
MNF is completely different, the system has lost the past 2 Monday night games.
But overall it is pretty good. Thanks for all the hard work.
Taking note as in maybe should start fading the MNF picks lol
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Twinz2307 |
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#263 Posted: 12/5/2012 9:42:30 PM no plays for this week ?
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AFNfootballnerd |
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#264 Posted: 12/5/2012 10:52:56 PM
Picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10 (normally not touching double digit spread but the defense numbers favor Arizona...hope they can keep it close with defense)
numbers were all close on these matchups except Arizona...when numbers are close ill take the dogs... |
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AFNfootballnerd |
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#265 Posted: 12/5/2012 10:58:27 PM
Final picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10
NE-3
So one favorite Monday nite hopeing I can hedge if Sunday plays out |
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nnguyen215 |
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#266 Posted: 12/6/2012 12:53:04 AM |
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johnpolino04 |
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#267 Posted: 12/6/2012 1:25:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
Ive created a program last year that records every play on every team on a weekly basis...the numbers are then adjusted to the league average and calculated to give a percentage of who is playing well recently, rather than the overall season....
pretty basic right? anybody can watch football and see whos hot and whos not currently....but, the program also records every defensive play...fumbles, interceptions, sacks, defensive scores etc....for example the highest percentage defense my program ranked the bears last week at -32%. If u watched the bears last week they scored alot on defense. The program recorded all the defensive plays and calculated it to -32% which was the highest of all the defensive teams last week... The Negative % on defense is a good thing and on offense obviously u want a positive %
Based off the program we can tell its recording every play accurately on defense as well as offense but this is where i place wagers with more confidence....the calculations on offense is adjusted based of strength of the opponent...
For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.
So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight...
My monday night numbers have calculated Pitt offense at 7% vs KC at -29% which ill be wagering on Pitt -12.5
Not claiming this program is undefeated use money management
im gonna be short on this one... bet underdog teams all the time u have highest chance to win that taking the favorite how sound that every sunday i saw at least 2 dogs win and the rest is all under score and underdog taking the lead... thats my concept and its wort it... giant lost, cowboy won but didn't cover, bears lost, even detroit that was totally favorite lost in the last 14 seconds.... check every sundays since week 1 u will see how close to reality i am...everyone scared to choose the unfavorite team... thats is about all human mentality..... we all want to go with the winner |
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#268 Posted: 12/6/2012 1:42:41 AM
Ran the numbers and of course Denver better numbers but suprised Palmers numbers aren't that bad on third down? It's just he throws Interceptions which is tough to win but also have decent numbers in the running game for raiders...if Palmer can convert 3rd downs and the running game is decent ill take the points....
Pick Raiders +10.5 |
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johnpolino04 |
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#269 Posted: 12/6/2012 1:48:33 AM |
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Twinz2307 |
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#270 Posted: 12/6/2012 9:57:38 AM |
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Twinz2307 |
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#271 Posted: 12/6/2012 10:01:11 AM or Kc/Cle ?
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bobafett |
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#272 Posted: 12/6/2012 10:10:40 AM  |
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GMTFAN |
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#273 Posted: 12/6/2012 10:13:37 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
All one unit each and a small parlay forgot to add NE-3
Final picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10
NE-3
So one favorite Monday nite hopeing I can hedge if Sunday plays out
Interesting results. Dogs covered about 56% so far this season. The percentage should go to 50% eventually. So picking all dogs seems to be a little bit risky. (although more dogs covered last week).
BTW, I don't understand why you have ARI and NE in your parlay. I don't see any significant line-changes so that you can hedge. |
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StoneColdNinja |
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#274 Posted: 12/6/2012 6:59:19 PM
also was wondering if you can tell me what your numbers say about the stl/buf game? thanks  |
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AFNfootballnerd |
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#275 Posted: 12/6/2012 7:24:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by GMTFAN:
Interesting results. Dogs covered about 56% so far this season. The percentage should go to 50% eventually. So picking all dogs seems to be a little bit risky. (although more dogs covered last week).
BTW, I don't understand why you have ARI and NE in your parlay. I don't see any significant line-changes so that you can hedge.
Playing all 1unit each which hopefully get a profit if at least 2 games don't play out...as far as the parlay I rarely do parlays but its the end of the season and I felt like playing a little lottery for fun cuz the regular season is coming to an end soon...what I meant by hedging is if all the Sundays games hit then I can hedge Monday and take Houston to gaurantee a payout but I know it's a longshot |
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