NBA Thursday 5.10.2012

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Thursday 5.10.2012
SettleDownSpaz PM SettleDownSpaz
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:07:58 PM

2012 Playoffs : 32-24-2 +100.87 units

2-1-0 last night, lost the Knicks by 1/2 point to ruin the clean sweep.  Hit the two big plays though, so overall a good night. 

Chicago Bulls +3.5 (12 units to win 11.43)

Chicago Bulls +150 (6 units to win 9.00)

Philly has the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference in a very vulnerable position.  Down 3-2 and needing a road victory to fend off elimination.  Obviously Rose is out and I'm assuming Noah is out as well.  This is more a play against the Sixers than it is on backing the Bulls.  That might not make sense, but I still firmly believe that if both teams show up, the better team will win, and for me, despite the injuries, that's the Chicago Bulls.  That being said, I'm somewhat skeptical of how the Sixers come out in Game 6.  The Bulls problems have clearly been on the offensive end, but I don't think we have seen the best effort from the Bulls, not even close.  Deng, Boozer and Rip have all been inconsistent at best, Korver's impact has for the most part been non-existent and the PG combo of Watson and Lucas has been spotty at best.  Deng finally got going in Game 5, Boozer has posted three straight double doubles and Rip was relevant earlier in the series, but has sicne faded.  If they get meaningful production from two of these guys and solid contributions from the bench and the PGs, the Bulls will win this game and force a Game 7 back in Chicago.

Quite a big "if" for sure, but one thing the Bulls have done well is play real good defense.  The Sixers 3-2 advantage has more to do with timely scoring than it has to do with consistent/effective scoring.  In the series to this point, the Sizers are shooting 40.8% from the field, 21.5% from three point range and 75.3% from the FT line.  Some pretty shotty numbers.  The Sixers were exceptional offensively in Game 2, but pouring over the box scores for this series and that seems like an outlier.  In the other four games, the Sixers shot less than 40% from the field, less than 27% from 3Pt and less than 80% from the line in each one.  Taking out the Game 2 stats, the Sixers shooting %'s are as follows:

FG: 36% (115-316)

3Pt: 16.9% (9-53)

FT: 74.7% (89-119)

Just some downright awful shooting numbers, yet somehow Philly is still in the driver's seat with a chance to send the # 1 seed to the golf course.  The stat that really stands out for me is the % of points Philly is getting from the FT line.   Here is the breakdown of % of points Philly has got from the FT line in all five games

Game 1: 26.37%

Game 2: 11.01%

Game 3: 32.91%

Game 4: 24.72%

Game 5: 24.64%

Overall, they have scored 23.1% of their points on foul shots.  Taking out Game 2, that number goes up to 27.1%.  That is more than a 1/4 of their points from the charity stripe.  During the regular season, the Sixers scored 14% of their points from the FT line. While one might not this as a positive that the Sixers are getting to the line, which it is, but what happens when they don't get to the line as much.  That happened in Game 2, but it didn't matter because the Sixers shot 58% (FG) and 41% (3Pt).  If they fail to get to the line a lot in Game 6, the Sixers will likely need to shoot at these levels to win.  That might be a tough task the way the Bulls are playing defense.  It's a dangerous gameplan to rely so heavily on FT scoring because when that goes away, you need to shoot lights out.  And outside of Game 2, the Sixers have shot wuite the opposite from the field. 

motorcitymama PM motorcitymama
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:14:55 PM

Great reseach and write up.  Thanks, Spaz!!

     BULLS!!!!!

thatsagoodone PM thatsagoodone
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:17:56 PM
Geez, great stufff Spaz.  I gotta rethink my Philly Boston ml parlay. 
dimeplayer68 PM dimeplayer68
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:35:03 PM
GL SDS
MuggsyBogues PM MuggsyBogues
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:36:46 PM
NIce research. However, agressive teams get rewarded with free throws. I'm not exactly sure what your final couple paragraphs mean... is being aggressive and going to the rim 'a dangerous gamplan to rely on'?
SportsFreak69 PM SportsFreak69
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:48:43 PM
Best of Luck 
andreagassi6969 PM andreagassi6969
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Posted: 5/10/2012 2:55:42 PM
matangster PM matangster
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:44:37 PM
Great writeup Spaz.  Certainly can't argue with those numbers.  I have the Bulls to cover here but their performance throughout the series has just made me lose faith, so much so I took 6ers.  They've lost their composure after Rose's departure and seem to have been struggling in the right direction; right direction nonetheless.  Definitely worth a second look after that reading.
SettleDownSpaz PM SettleDownSpaz
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:50:28 PM

motorcity, thatsagoodone, dime, SportsFreek, agassi - thanks guys, good luck tonight

Muggsy - good seeing you my friend. Aggresively going to the rim is a positive, but much of getting to the line is also dependent on defensive lapses and officiating.  If you're accustom to getting something and it is taken away, you're forced to rely on scoring by other means.  And the Sixers have not done that all too well this series 

SettleDownSpaz PM SettleDownSpaz
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:51:13 PM
matangster - thanks buddy, stick with your guns
UPNTHAPORT PM UPNTHAPORT
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Posted: 5/10/2012 4:54:03 PM
Bulls..
SettleDownSpaz PM SettleDownSpaz
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Posted: 5/10/2012 5:34:54 PM

Atlanta Hawks +7 (15 units to win 14.29)

I'm not really sure I get this line and not to say it's wrong, but relative to the numbers in Games 1-5, it is inconsistent.  Here is a look at the home/home equivalent (added 6 points) for the Atlanta Hawks in Games 1-5

 

Game 1 (no Horford or Allen)

Atlanta -1.5

No adjustment from previous game

 

Game 2 (no Horford, Allen or Rondo)

Atlanta -4.5

+3 points from Game 1

 

Game 3 (no Horford or Smith)

Atlanta +2 (Actual line Boston -8)

-0.5 points from Game 2

 

Game 4

Atlanta Pick (Actual line Boston -6)

+2 points from Game 3

 

Game 5

Atlanta -2

+2 points from Game 4

The line shift that really stands out to me is from Game 3 to Game 4 where Atlanta was an 8 point underdog (+2 on a home equivalent line).  In Game 1 with no Horford and Allen, Atlanta was -1.5, so for Game 4 with both of these guys back, one would think the line would be maintained around that level.  However, oddsmakers added 3.5 points to the Celtics side for Game 4.  Not sure why, but to me seems off.  The Celtics backed up the oddsmakers adjustment by pounding the Hawks in Game 4.  Then to Game 5, where Atlanta was lined as 2pt favorites, about consistent with Game 1, but inconsistent with the oddsmakers adjustment from Game 3 to Game 4.

Finally onto Game 6 tonight where the Celtics opened as 6.5 favorites, which translates to an Atlanta home equivalent line of about a Pick.  This is inconsistent with Game 5 as based on that Atlanta should be 4.5/5 point dogs.  However, tonight's line mirrors what happened from Game 3 to Game 4 where oddsmakers seemed to bump the Celtics home spread.  It worked out well for Boston backers in Game 4, but will those fortunes repeat?  Certainly possible, but I personally think you're laying too many to ride with the Celtics tonight.  Fool me once oddsmakers, shame on you. Fool me twice (with the same thing), definitelty shame on me.

SettleDownSpaz PM SettleDownSpaz
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:11:04 PM
UPNTHAPORT - thanks buddy 
snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:15:45 PM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:18:04 PM
Excellent write-up.  I particularly like your analysis on percentage of points from the free throw line in the Bulls/76ers series.  That's a little known game metric that can tell you how lucky a team has been.  NBA average is something like 17% and because Philly takes such a high percentage of jump shots it makes sense that they would be below this number.  +10% on this metric is a lot of free points that they really shouldn't be getting against a Bulls team that ranks #3 in opponent free throw rate.  The Bulls are well coached with a lot of talented defenders.  They're going to have a very good disciplined defensive game.  My only worry is their ability to outscore the 76ers offensively.  I still think they can win the series.  Like you said, they're just going to need some solid scoring performances from RIP, Deng and Boozer.

With you on this wager.  Good luck Spaz!
SCROG PM SCROG
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:33:51 PM
Sports is 90% mental. 76ers close it out tonight. GL guys  
MustRisk2Win PM MustRisk2Win
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:34:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

Geez, great stufff Spaz.  I gotta rethink my Philly Boston ml parlay. 

 

Biggest play for me in a long time. Chicago is done tonight. 76ers have beaten them at home and shot poorly. If Philly struggles from the field it should be a  close win, if Philly gets shots going then they win by 7+

MustRisk2Win PM MustRisk2Win
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:35:33 PM
GL Spaz...I agree with Hawks game. I am on Celtics ML huge, but I would take points before laying them just based on the way these teams matchup.
CalBear PM CalBear
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:40:13 PM
Good stuff and gl spaz
Posted using a mobile device.
docterd597 PM docterd597
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Posted: 5/10/2012 6:47:13 PM
wiggins PM wiggins
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Posted: 5/10/2012 10:43:51 PM
Retburj13 PM Retburj13
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Posted: 5/10/2012 10:46:28 PM
if not for a stupid Watson pass..u probably wooda hit the Bulls ML

congrats on a good nite
35MOOSE35 PM 35MOOSE35
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Posted: 5/10/2012 10:46:44 PM
excellent capping
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 5/10/2012 10:47:41 PM
Nice job Spaz.  Great start to the postseason so far.  Stay hot brother.

matangster PM matangster
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Posted: 5/10/2012 10:48:09 PM
Congrats Spaz
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