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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 5
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/4/2012 6:48:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Pop Quiz: What do Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning have in common this season?




The answer to the question is they have all won fewer games and have a lower QB rating than one Kevin Kolb. Also only Brees and one Manning brother have thrown more TD passes. It was supposed to be a little transition into how the Cardinals still aren't getting any respect. Some of my better "AHA!" moments have come while sitting on the can. Today while in that very position I thought hard about this game and had a strong AHA moment. It was "what the hell are you doing even contemplating 1. Laying points with the Cards as a road fav on a short week against a scrappy team you like, and 2. Betting this shitfest at all.?" So flip a coin, throw a dart but as far as I'm concerned the clear play for me on this game is a big phat PASS. GL to those who bet it.
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#27
Posted: 10/4/2012 6:51:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:



The answer to the question is they have all won fewer games and have a lower QB rating than one Kevin Kolb. Also only Brees and one Manning brother have thrown more TD passes. It was supposed to be a little transition into how the Cardinals still aren't getting any respect. Some of my better "AHA!" moments have come while sitting on the can. Today while in that very position I thought hard about this game and had a strong AHA moment. It was "what the hell are you doing even contemplating 1. Laying points with the Cards as a road fav on a short week against a scrappy team you like, and 2. Betting this shitfest at all.?" So flip a coin, throw a dart but as far as I'm concerned the clear play for me on this game is a big phat PASS. GL to those who bet it.



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#28
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:54:56 PM
Seattle +3

The Panthers are a crap team and shouldn't be laying points. In what is forecast to be a tight game like this I always look to see who has the better defense and that isn't even a question in this game. Seattle clearly has the better defense with arguably a Top 5 group while the Panthers arguably have a Bottom 5 group. I think Lynch and the run game can run over this defense, control the clock, and set Wilson up with some easier throws off play action against a bad pass defense. Wilson has looked bad but this is the first real soft defense he has had a chance to play. His 4 games thus far have come against defenses ranked in the Top 10 in opponent yards per play. The Panthers are 24th in that category. You know you've got a pretty bad defense when the D-line plays the game of their lives last week collecting 7 sacks on the road and you still give up 30 points, 426 yards, and lose the game.

Carolina has never won a game in which Cam has thrown an INT and there's a good chance of him throwing some here against a top notch secondary. Too much being made of Seattle's road woes now, Carolina being a crap team and the game being played at 4.05 negates a lot of those concerns.


NY Jets +9

There is no on-field situation or matchup edge that even I could ramble on about that favors the Jets in this situation so I won't even bother. My approach to this game is entirely from the psychological standpoint. The difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL is very, very small believe it or not. These are the top 0.0001% or whatever of the best players in the world competing every week so really the talent gaps between one 53 man group and another should be very small. Oftentimes when the differences are that small the games are decided by motivation. In this particular game I don't think there is any question the Jets have more motivation. They were publicly humiliated last week and at home no less. Losing that badly is one thing but the general consensus is this is now one of the worst teams in the league. Plus the media has been harping all week about just how soft they were and even players on the 49ers are accusing them of quitting. When professionals get attacked like that it is extremely motivating to come back strong, with energy, and with toughness especially in front of a national TV audience. The Jets are going to come full force on MNF IMO. The Texans are a great team but I don't buy for half a second that they want to make a statement in this game. They are unbeaten and being slurped by everyone, where is the motivation to come out and pound a team that looks as bad as the Jets? I don't see it. If they want to make a statement then next week at home on SNF against the Packers is the place to do so. The Jets will find a way to stay in this game.

I liked one more but the line has gotten away. We'll see if it comes back. GL.
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#29
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:02:28 PM
WilliamMunny - Your schedule argument favors the Titans. They lost to the Texans, Pats, and Chargers. This is a big step down in class for them. They beat the Lions but so did the Vikings. Minnesota has played Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Detroit, and got the Niners in a big letdown spot. That is not an impressive list. GL regardless.

glyde69 - Damn bud sucks they blocked Covers. What's your feeling on KC? There are a few long-running systems that say they are a strong play this week but I can't seem to play out the game in my head one way or the other. Nice grab with the Jags. I really liked them this week but the line got away. GL bro.

44-dimes - Seems like there are always a few times like that every year doesn't there? Minny could be one and Zona probably is too. GL.
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#30
Posted: 10/5/2012 6:47:14 PM

Hey Andy, for the most part my play on the Chiefs is nothing but gut instinct mixed with a little experience betting the NFL all these years. It just feels right. Also, you spoke about motivation when breaking down your Jets wager, and you can bring that same mindset with this game. IMO.

Kansas City is a team that has been getting beat up all year. They have a serviceable QB, and some offensive weapons that are really hard to matchup against(charles, moeaki, mccluster, bowe), especially for a Baltimore defense that IMO isn't NEARLY as good as they were the last decade or so. So coming into 2012 it was thought that their D can build off a decent finish to last year, and their offense while all healthy can make some noise. It hasn't exactly happened that way, and KC is a 1-3 ballclub who has looked horrible for pretty much all of the 240 minutes of football this year. Cassel is taking major heat, and Crennel has hinted that it might be time for a change. I feel that is a motivational bluff though and KC backers have nothing to worry about in that regards. The fans are getting on the team, and a promising season is getting very close to getting flushed down the toilet. It is a do or die game at home behind a raucous crowd, with a very winnable game next week against the Bucs before they go into their bye week. Losing this game might be the season, but two wins and heading into the bye 3-3 is a whole other beast. On the other side, Baltimore is 3-1. They are cruising along. They won their early season Super Bowl over the Pats recently. While Cleveland made them sweat a bit, they controlled that game for the most part. They have two huge games in the next couple weeks against Dallas and Houston. Not to say they are looking ahead by any means, but maybe THIS road game against lowly KC isn't gonna be their most "motivated" one. The media is sucking Flacco's person to no end. They are in talks as being 2nd or 3rd best in the AFC and a major contender for a SB berth, and IDK, I just don't think they are as good as prior years. Flacco is a much better QB at home(this game on the road), and Crennel's style defense I think can come up with a good plan to stop Baltimore's attack(take that with a grain of salt as they have been AWFUL so far this season).

Most of KC's woes have been because of turnovers. Costly turnovers. In a couple of their losses, early turnovers absolutely crushed them in games and ended them before they started. I just can't see them continuing to give up the ball the way they have. Also, for a 1-3 team who has pretty much been hammered in each game, they have won the total yards in all four games. Granted, get down early in each game and you can amass yards in desperation and garbage time, but the bottom line is they are moving the ball. I think KC wins this game straight up.

Another game I like is Jacksonville. I think they beat the Bears straight up as well. I don't like being a guy who says, "yeah, I think they win SU, BUT I'M GONNA TAKE THE POINTS," but it is still early in the season, and I'm looking to build up my bank a bit. Week 12, I have no qualms unloading on ML +250-400 teams, but week 12 I can mentally watch Jax or KC or NYJ play great and lose 20-17 rather than take those hits this early in the season. Anyway, the Bears offense is an absolute joke right now and laying a TD on the road is insane. I know I got +7, and I hope no one thinks I'm coming in here with BS lines. You know me...I'm not that guy. I just have a local who shade favs ridicolously and being it is my only book this year(I pulled out of all offshore lines for various reasons, and my other local closed shop about 24 hours before Week 1), I have to deal with shitty lines...for better or for worse. It's great for dogs so i can't complain there. At the same time, I'm beat with Cincy -4(looks to be 3 everywhere now), and probably NO(looking at 4.5 now).

Anyway, Bears offensive line....dogshit. Cutler seems to have zero chemistry yet with his receivers. Forte is banged up and I think gets bottled up here. Only way Bears win this is if JAX turns the ball over 3-4 times....and that's possible. Chicago has a decent D. But they are a bit undersized, and if Gabbert can be OKAY, and put the Bears in a spot where they can't load the box with 8-9 guys on 1st and 2nd down, I think JAX can bulldoze their way to a time consuming 125-150 yards on the ground. Run the ball, keep the clock moving, be balanced, and let their defense manhandle the brutal Bears offense.

Jets game, I agree with your writeup 100%. Same thoughts by me. MOTIVATION.

As for the Bengals. I friggin love this team. Dalton won me so much money at TCU(their defense as well), and the same intangibles he won games with in college, he brings to the NFL and brought it immediately. He doesn't panic under pressure. He can get tough yards with his legs. Not the strongest arm, but he can make every throw. He is very much in sync with his WR and TE's, and it doesnt hurt to have the best WR in all of football(imo AJ). Miami is scrappy, playing good ball. Their defense is physical and they are decent against the run, but they can be exploited throwing the ball, and I think Dalton has a field day. Can see this being 31-10 kind of game. Cincy's defense also is a bit underrated. I like their secondary and linebackers. And they bring crazy pressure on the QB. I don't have any numbers in front of me, but just from what I've seen with my eyes so far, they have to be averaging at least 5-6 sacks per game. Tannehill is in for a loooong day.

GL as always, buddy.

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#31
Posted: 10/5/2012 6:56:16 PM

Tailed you on SEATTLE +3, by the way.  I was sort of leaning that way but wasn't gonna hit them, but I like your thoughts on it. 

Big card this week!

Jets +9.
KC +7.
Jax +7.
Green Bay -7.5
Cincy -4
Seattle +3
New Orleans -(
holding out for 3.5 but will settle for 4; currently sitting on 4.5 right now).
Had Tennessee +7, but had second thoughts and washed it out with Minny -5.5.  Maybe 23-17 gets me a middle?????

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#32
Posted: 10/5/2012 7:07:26 PM

Re: Pop quiz A.

Oh, I thought it was Jaguars,Bengals and Panthers...all versions of hot box.

Andarmac- I'm off to a good run after a mediocre week # 1 in the NFL. Have hit DD L3 weeks.

CFL card is tough. A few changes in QB carousel and Kavis Reed is taking over play calling and he demoted Crandell to QB coach.( Holding just under 61% in both leagues ATS  every game)

I'm on  EDM -1.5, CAL +4.5 ( BC has 3 key injuries in skill player pos.) and BC/CAL OVER 50 and SSK/TOR UNDER 47.5, MTL/WIN OVER 53.

Wish you well and love your plays. We are often on the same page.

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#33
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:23:06 PM
No way Cleveland covers after Gmen let down lose last week
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#34
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:24:05 PM
Canada guys. How is the CFL? Is it watchable? Bettable? Does it have a following north of the border or does NFL reign supreme? Or does Canada not care for football like the rest of the world?
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#35
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:25:52 PM
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#36
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:54:37 PM

I really like Seattle bud- haven't looked into the games yet but they matchup great with the Panthers.

Any MLB for ya?

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#37
Posted: 10/5/2012 9:08:45 PM
Already on the first 3. BOL!
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#38
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:53:53 PM
Ceehuwks +3 and ML



Love this play...almost as much as I did the Bags gainst the Cowboys Week 2. Also looking at Washington, KC, Buffalo and NYJ.

GL this week buddy.


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#39
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:02:59 AM
  
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#40
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:42:53 AM
The Jets don't have enough talent to be motivated to keep up with the Texans and the gap between them is a lot larger than you think. Revis is the key. They will torch the Jets corners all day no matter how much the Jets can score on offense (which won't be much anyhow).

Like the Steelers play and the Titans play. I think you should lay off the Jets. 
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#41
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:30:54 PM

Hey Glyde69,

 

Long time follower of your contributions as well. Trust all is well In Joisey.

I've lived in about 5 states over 8 years so I know how fanatical football is in the U.S but I can assure you the NFL has millions ( tall statement for a country of only 33 M) of zealous fanatics north of the 49th parallel.

Tons of degenerates and plenty of gambling and fantasy. It is the game of choice but many purists will tell you CFL is king. However, they would be in a vast minority. I'm a season ticket holder for a franchise in both leagues but love the NFL 1st and foremost.

If you ever care to see a game, ESPN 3 picked us up this year and there are 4 games remaining in an 18 game schedule that starts in late June.. I had read that NBC picked up 8 games commencing Aug.28th but I have both the CDN. and U.S. dishes wide open and have yet to find NBC carrying a game so I think that contract must have fallen through.

TWO sites that will give you info, recaps, video archives of games commercial free ( 1st link) and history on the game should you care to look into it are www.tsn.ca/cfl and www.cfl.ca

I'm sure you may already know this so by no means do I intend to insult your knowledge of the game but in our vastly underpopulated nation we have only 8 teams, it is 3 down ball so it is a pass happy league and the field is 10 yards longer and 12 yards wider.( and several other different rules ie. one foot down as in college qualifies as a catch and last team to touch a live loose ball before it goes out of bounds gets possession)

Tonite at 10 pm EST there will be a good game between the two top teams in the West and arguably the two best teams in the league ( CALGARY VS. BC) and I am sure it will be carried by ESPN3 should you not have anything better to do with your babe or on a SAT. nite period...LOL

 

Enjoy and Good Capping rest of the season,

Peace Out,

xfl

 

 

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#42
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:41:40 PM
like your picks sir!



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#43
Posted: 10/6/2012 12:56:43 PM
Saints should show up tonight but their defense really worries me. giving 4 points to a 3-1 team???
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#44
Posted: 10/6/2012 6:36:33 PM
Damn, XFL! That was a Wikipedia page of info! Thanks, man.
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#45
Posted: 10/6/2012 9:37:49 PM
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#46
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:56:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Hey Andy, for the most part my play on the Chiefs is nothing but gut instinct mixed with a little experience betting the NFL all these years. It just feels right. Also, you spoke about motivation when breaking down your Jets wager, and you can bring that same mindset with this game. IMO.



Real strong case for the Chiefs buddy. Agree with the turnovers they've been having too. Last week's game was basically over before it started because of the turnovers. The Ravens will also have a couple of games when they garbage the bed on the road like they always do and this could be one of them. Baltimore's defense has had a tendency to struggle a bit with those small shifty type players like Charles and McCluster the last couple years too. Don't think I can get involved the game but will root you on.

I have the same thoughts on Jacksonville. This Bears team really enjoyed beating the Cowboys on Monday. Bad spot here on a short week on the road again off a big time win now in the heat of Jacksonville against a bad team who doesn't even play in your conference. Jags will show up here IMO after playing so poorly last week. Cutler is still a douche and if things don't go well early this team could have a meltdown. I think I'll be in here at 6 or better.

No feel for the Fish/Bengals game. GL this week buddy.
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#47
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:59:56 PM
gl. really trying to get myself to play Tenn.
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#48
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:07:13 AM
Solid solid card mac... I'm on a couple of those myself. 

Good insight as usual. BOL this week 
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#49
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:13:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Canada guys. How is the CFL? Is it watchable? Bettable? Does it have a following north of the border or does NFL reign supreme? Or does Canada not care for football like the rest of the world?


XFL covered a lot of it. It is watchable and bettable especially in July and August when there is no other football and you are dying for some pigskin (season runs July-August). But I don't know anyone who would watch or bet the CFL over the NFL. We love the NFL up here, it may not show up in the mainstream media with their hockey love affair but most of my buds and people I know love it.

There are some fucked up rules in the CFL no doubt. The 3 down rule stinks IMO but it does open things up on offense. It's more like watching a college game as the defenses aren't nearly as good as in the NFL. I feel bad for the corners as the receivers get a running start from 10-15 yards back on every play as opposed to lining up on the line of scrimmage. I do like the "no yards" rule though. There are no fair catches on punts and guys on coverage can't go within 5 yards of a guy trying to catch a punt, it promotes a shitload of kick returns. There is a returner on Hamilton by the name of Chris Williams that will get a shot in the NFL next season. He's much better than Stefan Logan (Lions) and Marcus Thigpen (Dolphins) and they've come from the CFL the last couple years. Can't forget about the dreaded single point either. If you punt the ball through the endzone or miss a FG and it goes through the endzone or isn't returned out by the other team you get a single point.

I know I've posted this before somewhere but here is the single greatest bad beat in the history of football. I did not have action on this game but here is the scenario: MTL is a -4.5 fav, they line up for a FG in a 30-30 game with no time left. It is virtually impossible to get a TD here but they miss the FG and then TOR tries to kick it out to avoid the single and losing 31-30. But then MTL gets the kick and tries to kick it back through for the single and win but it hits a TOR player (considered a fumble) and is recovered by MTL for the game winning TD. It is virtually impossible to lose holding a +4.5 ticket in this spot. Either they hit the FG or miss for the single but holy darn what a moose.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5BFaykcxGg



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#50
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:16:26 AM
And yes the goal posts are stationed in the middle of the endzones. QB's have to try not to hit them with passes and receivers have to be careful not to run into the post (sometimes it doesn't work out too well).
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