Posted: 9/30/2010 1:24:40 AM
Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I think you guys are way over analyzing this. The books set lines to get close to equal action and rake in the juice. Why would they do it any other way? It would be stupid. Maybe they set a bad line and take a stand on a game or 2 but there is no such thing as a trap line, one of the biggest myths in sports betting.
Maybe a line looks too good (so called square) to a bunch of $20 bettors and the same line may look good (so called sharp) to a big bettor who will bet a big amount that covers what a bunch of $20 joes are betting on the other side. The books know well in advance what the schucks and big bettors will be betting on a game and set the lines accordingly to get close to equal action. It's that simple.
They dont want to just make juice, they want to crush all the dumbases and clean them out for their money. They will take their lumps when they have to.
If a fix goes dowm its not the casinos all plotting together, its one person or group looking for an opportunity and exploiting it. But that garbage usually goes in one direction. Sports betting is an us vs them thing, vegas, the offshore books, and your local are all on the same team. The reason they can take their lumps when they have to is all the friggin morons who line thier pockets. And they are happy to lose occasionally to those morons because they will get it back, they dont like getting taken for big by smart money.
They will use every trick in the book to throw people off. If a line moves from -3 to -5 more people are going to take the favorite than the dog these days. Hence reverse line movement, and that has nothing to do with fixing games.
And if your going to fix a game you do it so the dumbass public gets fucked not hte books. That garbage doesnt go down a lot though just sometime in certain situations people will betaking advantage of opportunities to make money. And it wont be the books who initiate this although they do benefit from games that are fixed the casinos are very very very removed from this.
But dont think they do every trick in the book to darn the public.
OK St-Washington State this year opened at 19 and moved to 17. One of my dumbass friends from school made Wassou his biggest play of the first weekend because he was sure it was fixed. friggin moron. Thats how they protect themselves.
It wasnt the Vegas books who paid Ricky Dobbs to fumble twice on the 1 yard line in the MD Navy game on Sunday before NFL when there was nothing else on. It was someone who wanted to make money and knew they wouldnt get caught because they would be going against the public. "Vegas" doesnt fix games.