Posted: 5/31/2012 5:24:20 PM
Spurs v Thunder under 206.5 – Game 3
Yup…everyone and their brother who I’m talking to today seems to think that the over is the easy play tonight off that 231 point output the other night (that also contained a boatload of free throws that contributed to the over getting killed) is going to repeat itself.
I haven't had a chance to peruse this board yet though so I don't know who the majority of the covers people are picking...I'm just telling you what I was hearing at the local watering hole this afternoon. It doesn't matter. I've hit the under and here's why.
Game two was a great spot to play the over and I think the books have given us a good number to play the under with here, especially off such a high scoring game.
As I noted in my game 1 write up, the Spurs have a tendency to take their foot off the throttle after high scoring games with the under going 6-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring 100 or more points. But also consider the fact that the Spurs scored 120 points their last game. Game 3 road teams off 120 or more point performances are 6-1 “under” if the total is 208 or less in game 3 since 1996.
Also, keep in mind, that in the last two seasons, the Spurs are a 8-1 “under” IN THE PLAYOFFS when the total is 193 or more. Furthermore, the Spurs are 11-1 “under” the last 5 seasons whenever they came off a SU or ATS home win in the playoffs.
Remember that both teams limited opponents to 96 ppg over the course of the season. They can and should be able to hold each other to less than 100 each tonight, especially if the Thunder are serious about getting back into this series. You aren’t going to do it without tightening up on the defensive end.
Last game saw 3 OKC players score more than 25 points… they accounted for more than half of the teams output. That feat hasn’t been accomplished since the Clyde Drexler days in Houston .. Yes, it is really THAT rare.
Talk about rarities … look at Parker’s output last game .. 34 points! He hasn’t done that in 5 seasons!
Forget for a moment the last game. I am making the argument that it was an anomaly, not the norm.
As I mentioned in the game 1 analysis, the Spurs have tightened up defensively these playoffs. Before the start of this series, they hadn’t allowed more than 92 points in 7 of the 8 games.
Consider that for both teams (using 206.5 or even 206 or for same of argument using game 1's total of 204)
- 4 of the 5 games vs. the Lakers would have gone under this total
- 4 of the 4 games v Dallas would have gone under this total
- The under is 1-1 in this series so far using tonight’s total.
- all 4 games vs. Clippers would have gone under this total
- all 4 games vs. Jazz would have gone under this total
- Again, 1-1 is the tally for this series so far.
So, in retrospect because we saw lower posted totals, it would appear as though the over has been cashing the ticket for these two teams in the playoffs.
That’s why the Thunder went 7-2 "over" in their 9 playoff games before this series. Hwoever, It would have gone 8-1 "under" with a 204 total. Using a 206.5 total, the under would have gone 9-2 up to this point.
The Spurs went 7-3 "under" so far in the playoffs despite scoring 100 or more points 8 times.
That's a combined 15-4 "under" tendency we are dealing with using tonight’s 206.5 total.
Since 2000, all 3rd round game 3’s went 14-1 “under” when the home team was favored and the total was more than 182 points.
The Thunder need to win this game to get back into the series. Already, being 0-2 they have put themselves in a pickle. As games 1 and 2 showed, they aren’t going to beat the Spurs by trying to outshoot them. The Spurs know too that they must slow them down playing away from home and will look to be a little more patient with the ball…I don’t expect 3 players for one team to score more than 25 points again in the same game. I also don’t think that Parker will have another career game on the road in game 3 with the Thunder needing to win so badly.
Consider that teams coming home down 0-2 in the playoffs are 7-0 “under” the last 3 years with a posted total of 192 or more points.
This is a product of teams knowing that they must defend better if they are going to get back into the series.
Feel free to agree or disagree….this is just my opinion and I’m sticking to it.
3 dimes on under 206.5