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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: New Regular Season NFL Strategy
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#51
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:28:54 PM
I'll post the Fade Greeny picks...remember they now pick the Thursday night games, two games on the weekend and the MNF.  I'll post the Thursday night pick as soon as I get it tomorrow. 

I have 3 team total plays I've been eyeing...I'm going to jump on them now.

Browns Under 18
I think the pressure that the Giants can put on the Browns will be overwhelming for the Browns offense.  I think Weeden can stand in there, but he just doesn't have the receivers.  Along with not having the receivers, the Giants should be able to bring an extra guy in the box to slow down Richardson.  I can see 1 td, maybe even a late td, but not enough to get over 18.

Bears Over 23
Might be my favorite wager of the week.  Jaguars have problems stopping the running game...and the pass.  Offenses have been able to move the ball, and they don't have one guy that can cover Marshall.  They also don't have a good rush so Cutler should have time to throw.  Forte is a little more healthy, so the Bears should have a solid run game to add to the arsenal as well.  Also, the Bears D has been great at forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into points.  I like the offense to easily get over 23 points, and maybe even the defense/special teams pitches in a score.

NYJ Under 17
Pretty simple.  Jets offense has little to no talent, and they are facing a defense about as good as the 49ers who just shut them out.  Texans D will be able to put lots of pressure on Sanchez, and in a primetime game, I don't think the Texans will pull the dogs off in the 4th.  They will run the ball and control the clock...I don't see how the Jets put in multiple TD's.

Note:  I will be most likely be taking the 2nd half over in the Patriots-Broncos game.  I'm hoping for a low scoring first half...I expect Brady and Manning to make adjustments at halftime and put up lots of points.  If one team has a lead at halftime, I will also take the individual team total of the team that's down.  I expect a lot of second half points from both these teams, especially the team coming from behind.
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#52
Posted: 10/4/2012 3:47:14 AM
GOING TO MAKE FIVE TEAM PLAY
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#53
Posted: 10/4/2012 3:20:23 PM
Fade Greeny pick is in

He likes the Rams +2. 

That makes the pick tonight Cardinals -2. 
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#54
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:04:47 PM
Fade Greeny Picks today

He likes the Steelers -3.5, and the 49ers -10

That makes the picks Eagles +3.5, and Bills +10

He also like the St. Louis Cardinals, and Baltimore Orioles in baseball tonight.

That makes the picks Braves, and Rangers.
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Posted: 10/5/2012 1:11:25 PM
He also loves the Patriots -6.5

That makes the pick Broncos +6.5
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Posted: 10/5/2012 3:41:23 PM
Adding one more team total

Jaguars under 18.5

The Jags offense has struggled...they only scored 7 against Houston, they scored 15 against the Colts before a lucky 80 yd td at the end of the game, then 10 against a Bengals team that has struggled on defense this year.  Now the Bears come to town off a big win, and the Bears have a bye next week...I think they come out strong, and I just don't see how Gabbert can put up points on this team.  They are a one dimensional team, and the Bears D loves that.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 11:01:28 AM
4-2 on the O/U counting the 2nd half over and Broncos team total...still waiting on the Jets team total.  I haven't been very good the last 2 weeks on the O/U on the game totals even though my picks were on the right side of the line move.  However, I've been good on the individual team totals.  So I'm going to move to picking teams totals...if the success there continues I'm going to keep doing that.

I was way off on the Giants game, but hopefully everyone wagered a lot on the Bears team total as I did.  Wish I would've put more on the Jags under as I had a real good read on that game.

Fade Greeny picks went 1-2
8-7-1 ytd

Hope everyone made this weekend...fingers crossed the Jets keep it under 17.5 to make it a pretty good weekend on the totals picks.



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Posted: 10/8/2012 11:07:25 AM
Some early thoughts on team totals for next week.

I'll have to wait til the team totals come out, but I'll be looking at the Falcons over, Bengals over, Lions under, Cardinals over, Seahawks under.
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#59
Posted: 10/8/2012 1:09:44 PM
You may want to separate the mon/thurs games, as they have no choice but to pick a team.  They may be flipping a coin and have a better chance of picking a winner...  lmao.   They consider themselves cherry picking on Sunday, so that makes those fades even stronger.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 10:36:03 AM
Good point...he's done better on the thursday and monday games than the sunday ones.    I'll post the picks, but I will probably only wager on the Sunday picks.

I didn't post a pick with Greeny on MNF because the Jets were involved.

Got a push with the Jets team total.  Kickoff return TD ruined it for me.  However, it's a lesson in getting down on key numbers early.  If you got the Jets at 17 you got a push...if you waited and took the number after that, it moved all the way down to 15.5, and that resulted in

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Posted: 10/10/2012 1:43:01 PM
O/U 12-8-2 ytd

I've got several Team Totals I like...I didn't get some of the numbers I was expecting to get on some of the teams, and then I got some other numbers I liked that I wasn't expecting...so here we go

Colts Over 20
I'm from Indianapolis, so I've gotten a real good look at Luck and this Colts offense, and they have gotten better every week.  Last weeks performance was very impressive, and I think that continues.  There are also several factors in this game I think will work in the Colts favor.  The Jets used everything they had against the Texans...I think this is a let down game.  Also, the Colts pass rush should cause Sanchez some problems, and maybe even force a couple turnovers that give the Colts offense a few extra possessions.  Last, the Colts don't have a great running game so they will be throwing, and the Jets secondary is not great without Revis.  They will put Cromartie on Wayne, but Luck will utilize TY Hilton, Donnie Avery and Coby Fleener.  I think the Colts will easily get to 24 pts.

Lions Under 21.5
This is a play against the Lions offense, and also a play for the Eagles defense.  Something isn't clicking with the Lions offense.  If you look at the points they put up, a lot of it is garbage time and trying to catch up.  The Eagles defense at home is really good, especially their running defense.  I can't see the Lions getting a running game going, and when they don't have their running game going the Eagles can concentrate on stopping Megatron.  My only worry with this play is 4th quarter scores with the Lions trying to come from behind, but at halftime in this game I might play the Lions 2nd half team total over depending on how the first half goes.

Seahawks Under 21
My favorite play of the week.  Seattle's offense sucks.  That's about all the analysis this play needs.  However, I like the Patriots D, and if Carolina's bad defense can hold Seattle to 16 points, I like the Pats D to hold them under 21.  The only way Seattle gets over the total is if there is a kickoff return for a td, or defense td, and even then it might be tough. 

Cardinals Over 23.5
This is a play against the Bills D.  They can't put pressure on the qb, and they can't guard wide receivers.  Arizona now has real problems in their running game, so they are going to have to throw a lot.  I think Kolb will be able to move the ball up and down the field through the air if the Bills can't get pressure, and even though the Arizona offensive line looked bad against St. Louis, they should be able to give Kolb enough time.

Broncos Over 24
I like the Peyton is running their offense, and he should have a field day against San Diego.  San Diego is having trouble slowing teams down, and the Broncos offense will keep getting better.  McGahee had big turnovers/drops last week that kept lots of points off the board otherwise the Broncos would've hung 28-31 pts on New England.  I like them to play well here, and this game could be a shootout.

Note on Broncos:  The Broncos are a great team to play the 2nd half team total OVER if the game is close, or if they are coming from behind.  Manning can put up points quickly in the hurry up.  If the game is close, or the Broncos are behind, I will play the Broncos over the team total in the 2nd half.  If the total is 14 or under, the play will be big.
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Posted: 10/11/2012 7:35:59 PM
Greeny didn't pick for this game, so there's no Fade Greeny system pick, but I am going to put a play in for a team total.

Steeler First Half over 12.5

I debated about this one a lot, and I like the Steelers offense to succeed against a bad Titan Defense.  However, if they get up big in the first half, they might run a lot in the second half and mess up the team total.  So I'm making a play on the first half total over.  Steelers are healthy on offense, and Big Ben should be able to move the ball at will.  The Steelers are banged up on defense, but I don't think that matters with this play.  I see the Steelers with several possessions in the first half, and I think 2 touchdowns is likely, and 1 touchdown and 2 field goals is also in play.

GL tonight!!!
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Posted: 10/11/2012 10:16:13 PM
Going after the 2nd half Steelers team total over 12.5    2 units

I can't see the Steelers not putting up points in this half.  Not a believer in the Titans D, and I think the Steelers make adjustments at halftime.  First half over play should've gone over if Big Ben runs the ball and kicks the field goal at the end of the 2nd quarter
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Posted: 10/12/2012 12:01:39 PM
Fade Greeny plays today for the weekend

He likes the Giants +6 and the Falcons -9

That makes the picks 49ers -6 and Raiders +9 (5dimes has the raiders +10.5 with juice)
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Posted: 10/16/2012 7:08:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

O/U 12-8-2 ytd

I've got several Team Totals I like...I didn't get some of the numbers I was expecting to get on some of the teams, and then I got some other numbers I liked that I wasn't expecting...so here we go

Colts Over 20
I'm from Indianapolis, so I've gotten a real good look at Luck and this Colts offense, and they have gotten better every week.  Last weeks performance was very impressive, and I think that continues.  There are also several factors in this game I think will work in the Colts favor.  The Jets used everything they had against the Texans...I think this is a let down game.  Also, the Colts pass rush should cause Sanchez some problems, and maybe even force a couple turnovers that give the Colts offense a few extra possessions.  Last, the Colts don't have a great running game so they will be throwing, and the Jets secondary is not great without Revis.  They will put Cromartie on Wayne, but Luck will utilize TY Hilton, Donnie Avery and Coby Fleener.  I think the Colts will easily get to 24 pts.

Lions Under 21.5
This is a play against the Lions offense, and also a play for the Eagles defense.  Something isn't clicking with the Lions offense.  If you look at the points they put up, a lot of it is garbage time and trying to catch up.  The Eagles defense at home is really good, especially their running defense.  I can't see the Lions getting a running game going, and when they don't have their running game going the Eagles can concentrate on stopping Megatron.  My only worry with this play is 4th quarter scores with the Lions trying to come from behind, but at halftime in this game I might play the Lions 2nd half team total over depending on how the first half goes.

Seahawks Under 21
My favorite play of the week.  Seattle's offense sucks.  That's about all the analysis this play needs.  However, I like the Patriots D, and if Carolina's bad defense can hold Seattle to 16 points, I like the Pats D to hold them under 21.  The only way Seattle gets over the total is if there is a kickoff return for a td, or defense td, and even then it might be tough. 

Cardinals Over 23.5
This is a play against the Bills D.  They can't put pressure on the qb, and they can't guard wide receivers.  Arizona now has real problems in their running game, so they are going to have to throw a lot.  I think Kolb will be able to move the ball up and down the field through the air if the Bills can't get pressure, and even though the Arizona offensive line looked bad against St. Louis, they should be able to give Kolb enough time.

Broncos Over 24
I like the Peyton is running their offense, and he should have a field day against San Diego.  San Diego is having trouble slowing teams down, and the Broncos offense will keep getting better.  McGahee had big turnovers/drops last week that kept lots of points off the board otherwise the Broncos would've hung 28-31 pts on New England.  I like them to play well here, and this game could be a shootout.

Note on Broncos:  The Broncos are a great team to play the 2nd half team total OVER if the game is close, or if they are coming from behind.  Manning can put up points quickly in the hurry up.  If the game is close, or the Broncos are behind, I will play the Broncos over the team total in the 2nd half.  If the total is 14 or under, the play will be big.


Terrible week for me in the team totals.  2-5
14-13-1 ytd

Colts over 20-Terrible pick.  Luck played bad, that's sometimes what happens when you bet on a rookie qb.  I missed this one completely.

Lions under 21.5-I said above I was worried about the 4th quarter comeback points...and it ed me.  It happens, but it was frustrating to watch the Philly defense play good for 3 quarter and then fall apart.  Note to Andy Reid:  GIVE SEAN MCCOY THE BALL WHEN YOU ARE LEADING...HES AN ELITE RUNNING BACK...that is all.

Seahawks under 21.5-big thanks to the Patriots defense for forgetting to cover the deep receiver when the only way the Seahawks were going to catch up was by hitting the deep receiver.  This one stung the most.

Cardinals over 23.5-One more bad call by me this week.  I thought they would exploit the Bills D, but they couldn't cash in.  Nice performance by the Bills D...and it cost me.

Broncos over 24-Even at halftime, I wasn't worried about this wager.  San Diego loves self-destructing, and I know the defense scored 2 td's, but if they hadn't scored td's, I have no doubt Peyton would have converted those.

Hope everyone followed me on the Broncos 2nd half team total over...I didn't include that in my overall record...but if Peyton is down at halftime, I'll lay several units on their team total over every time.

Steelers-lost the first half team total...made it back plus a unit on the 2nd half.

Several lines I like this week...I'll post below.
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Posted: 10/16/2012 7:15:45 PM
Fade Greeny System went 1-1
9-8-1 ytd
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Posted: 10/16/2012 7:26:42 PM
O/U plays right now

Texans Over 27.5

I hate to see injuries to players...especially great players.  Love Ray Lewis and Webb, but this defense wasn't very good before the injuries...now they get Arian Foster and Matt Schaub...at home.  Texans got killed last week, and I think they want to make a statement.  I think teams will continue to run and throw on the Ravens, and Houston should be able to move the ball consistently.  Also, Flacco and the no huddle could help this total.  If Houston stops them on the no huddle, that will give the Texans more possessions.

Seahawks under 15.5

Very low total, but I'm betting on the 49er's coming off a loss at home to flex their muscle here.  Seattle got a little lucky last week, and the 49ers are a great D.  I like them to hold Seattle under 2 td's...especially if Seattle is forced to take gambles late in the game.

Saints over 26

Tampa Bay is great against the run, and terrible against the pass.  Guess what the Saints do...Pass...guess what they don't do...Run.  I think Brees has a field day against this secondary, and it wouldn't surprise me if TB puts up points against a bad NO defense, and this game turns into a shootout.

Raiders over 23.5

I'm not a believer in the Jags defense, but I am in the Raiders offense...and junk time counts!!!  McFadden should get some good numbers, and Palmer is a volatile qb which is great for overs.  Raiders played well against the Falcons, and I can see them putting up some serious points against a bad Jags D.
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Posted: 10/19/2012 4:13:03 PM
Fade Greeny Picks

He likes the Redskins +5.5 and the Packers -5.

That makes the picks Giants -5.5 and Rams +5.

Great start to my team totals last night with the Seahawks under 15.5.  Hopefully that keeps up this week!!!

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Posted: 10/22/2012 12:41:15 AM
Fade Greeny system went 0-2
9-10-1 ytd

My O/U's went 4-0 this week

18-13-1 ytd

Good to see after a bad week last week.

Texans and Saints hit the over in the first half, that's pretty rare.  Seahawks hit the under easily, and the Raiders over hit with overtime.  Not a confident win on that one, but I'll take it.

Not a lot of leans towards next week, but I will say I'll be looking hard at the Panthers team total and the under.  If I can get their total 17.5 and under, it will be a big wager for me.
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Posted: 10/23/2012 1:18:56 PM
O/U picks

I like 4 unders so far....looking to build on the momentum from last week!!!

Vikings under 24

Vikings run their offense through Peterson and Harvin.  Tampa Bay is a top 3 run stopping defense.  I don't think Tampa will completely stop Minnesota, but I think they can slow them down.  Tampa gave up a lot of points against a great Saints offense, but Christina Ponder isn't Drew Brees.  I think this game could be real close throughout with lots of running and field goals.

Lions under 23

Seattle has given up 23 points once this year against the Patriots.  Everything else has been under.  Lions look really out of sync on offense, and have virtually no running game.  Seattle should be able put pressure on Stafford and make life hard for him.  Again, the only thing I worry about with this is a BS 4th qt touchdown.

Panthers under 18

Bears are probably the best defense in the league.  Now they get a really frustrated Cam Newton, with a below average receiving corp, and a below average running game.  Cutler got a little banged up last night...I think the Bears pound the ball with Forte and Bush and run a lot of time off the clock.  Having a hard time figuring out how the Panthers punch in multiple td's.

Cowboys under 23.5

Cowboys offense is also out of sync.  Not sure if it's coaching, personnel, or whatever, but they are struggling.  Giants defense is playing well, and their front 7 should be able to stop the run and pressure the qb as well.  Dez is banged up, Demarco out...I don't see the Cowboys getting 3 td's on these guys.

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Posted: 10/26/2012 2:41:44 PM
Fade Greeny picks are in

He likes the Cowboys +2, and the Packers -14.5

That makes the picks Giants -2, and Jaguars +14.5

Nice start last night to the O/U with Minnesota staying under 24. 

GL to everyone this weekend.
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Posted: 10/28/2012 12:32:44 AM
Adding one more play for my O/U this week.

Saints first half Over 12.5

I like the Saints team to be able to move the ball against the Broncos, but I'm a little worried about the Saints not having the stamina in the second half at mile high.  I think the Saints will put up 2 touchdowns in the first half.

Side Note:  I will again be on the Broncos in the second half if the game is close or if the Saints are ahead.  I'll be looking to play the Broncos over the team total in the second half.
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Posted: 10/28/2012 6:02:02 PM
Hedging the Cowboys under 23.5 by taking a 2nd half bet

Cowboys 2nd half over 13
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Posted: 10/28/2012 9:59:00 PM
Saints second half over 13.5
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:41:17 AM
3-5 in my O/U this week

Had a bad read on the Saints this week...cost me 2 wagers.

21-18-1 ytd

Fade Greeny went 2-0

11-10-1 ytd

I'm excited about the games this weekend.  Several plays I'm going to feel really confident about.  If the numbers are right, I'll be on the Broncos, Bears, and Seahawks over their totals.  Hope everyone had a great week!
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