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Author:	[College Basketball] Topic: Gonzaga vs St Mary's
ChipsNVouchers	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Mandalay Bay \|
Rookie Joined: Jan 2012 Posts: 826 Location: Wyoming	#1 Posted: 3/4/2012 10:57:57 PM Who wins? What is the best play? The teams split during the regular conference season with both teams winning easily at home now they play on a neutral court. Neither team has been too outstanding against the spread with St Mary's being 2-6 and Gonzaga going 4-9-1. One game went over, one game went under. Somebody has some insight so please feel free to explain the play and why.
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JFen31	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 6626 Location: Pennsylvania	#2 Posted: 3/4/2012 11:01:56 PM Throw out the stats, records, trends. This is the preeminent rivalry on the West Coast right now and both teams know each other intimately well. IMO, the difference in the rubber match is the loss of Stephen Holt for SMC. He's a tremendous on-ball defender and would have been a major help in defending Pangos and Bell. Without him, I don't think the Gaels can play their typical stifling perimeter defense. Harris looks interested in basketball again and seems to have rediscovered his enormous potential. Ditto Sacre. Lean Zags.
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JackSmack	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: May 2007 Posts: 10328 Location: South Carolina	#3 Posted: 3/4/2012 11:04:22 PM me too jfen, i think zags and even going to go out on a limb and say a double digit victory. Both teams plaing well but zags are really finding their stride. Ill be suprised if they dont win by 10 or more
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aggieaccountant	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 3488 Location: Texas	#4 Posted: 3/4/2012 11:08:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31: Throw out the stats, records, trends. This is the preeminent rivalry on the West Coast right now and both teams know each other intimately well. IMO, the difference in the rubber match is the loss of Stephen Holt for SMC. He's a tremendous on-ball defender and would have been a major help in defending Pangos and Bell. Without him, I don't think the Gaels can play their typical stifling perimeter defense. Harris looks interested in basketball again and seems to have rediscovered his enormous potential. Ditto Sacre. Lean Zags. With Holt out, I would also lean towards the over. I suspect the Zags will score 70-75 points, putting the over in great shape in my opinion.
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TurnstoneMoney	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 1887 Location: Pennsylvania	#5 Posted: 3/4/2012 11:08:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31: . IMO, the difference in the rubber match is the loss of Stephen Holt for SMC. He's a tremendous on-ball defender and would have been a major help in defending Pangos This. Holt defending any of Gonzaga's perimeter guys would have been a big help. Now they're forced to handle more offensive weapons then they are capable of. Between Pangos, Sacre, and Harris, one should have a favorable matchup. With each team knowing each other so well I would be surprised to see a blowout, but I'll side with zaga when they're playing well offensively
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Numero_Uno	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Rookie Joined: Apr 2010 Posts: 605 Location: Texas	#6 Posted: 3/4/2012 11:36:35 PM This is a tough one. I realize Holt is out, but I would suspect that the line has already been adjusted for that. I don't know, it just seems too easy to take the Zags, so that is what scares me.
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jwub91781	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 3358 Location: Missouri	#7 Posted: 3/5/2012 12:31:22 AM Over 134 all fuckin day
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jusballin32	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Mar 2010 Posts: 514 Location: California	#8 Posted: 3/5/2012 1:02:44 AM All good points, and everytime I watch this matchup Rob Jones sucks.....for some reason he is hot garbage vs the Zags.
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theguru1	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 3829 Location: Pennsylvania	#9 Posted: 3/5/2012 1:06:37 AM Why is St.Mary's ranked in the top 25 and the Zags aren't? StMary's lost to Murray St and lost to Zags last time they played and looking at their past few games I can't figure out how they are ranked higher?
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cr619	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 20 Location:	#10 Posted: 3/5/2012 1:06:54 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by jusballin32: All good points, and everytime I watch this matchup Rob Jones sucks.....for some reason he is hot garbage vs the Zags. Right on...
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theguru1	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 3829 Location: Pennsylvania	#11 Posted: 3/5/2012 1:16:14 AM Something tells me the public money will be all over the Zags with this short line and looking at the public money favs all season so far the zags are in the top of the list at #12 while St.mary's sits at #91. So I am sure Vegas knows where most of the money will go, but my guess is sharp money will be on St.Mary's which is also where my money will be. I am also guessing Holt will play, but like them either way.
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mellow_wolf	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2009 Posts: 2691 Location:	#12 Posted: 3/5/2012 7:41:48 AM The line has shifted from -1.5 to -3 overnight. I don't think that is pubic money. The Zags are the better overall team with no Holt(likely) for SMC. In the last 10 meetings, the favorite has won 9-1 SU and is 7-2-1 ATS. None of the games have been closer than 2 points. I jumped on the Zags at -1.5 last night. Good luck.
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mellow_wolf	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2009 Posts: 2691 Location:	#13 Posted: 3/5/2012 7:42:19 AM Haha. Public not pubic
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Raidernator76	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
MVP Joined: Dec 2003 Posts: 16127 Location: United States	#14 Posted: 3/5/2012 8:56:52 AM a lot of gonzaga peeps here in vegas. quite a bit i seen here at the rio. that has nothing to do with me being on them -1.5
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Lundegaard	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 2368 Location: United States	#15 Posted: 3/5/2012 10:01:46 AM They completely dismantled a very capable buy squad. Bulldogs for me.
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Lundegaard	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 2368 Location: United States	#16 Posted: 3/5/2012 10:02:17 AM (Byu)
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Bono17	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: SBGEuro.com \|
Prospect Joined: Feb 2011 Posts: 23 Location: New York	#17 Posted: 3/5/2012 10:37:23 AM Zags all day!! I jumped on the line this morning when it was -2. The difference this year vs. the previous 12 is that the Zags weren't regular season champs. There streak to tie the NCAA record for consecutive regular season championships with UCLA was snapped and they are pumped to right the ship. Need to win the conference tourney to be completely certain to make the tourney. Outside bid not as sure as it has been in years although that dismantling of BYU will certainly help. No Holt for SMC is huge as well. Pangos is on fire right now and Sacre will own the boards and will not go out in his Senior year against a heated rival like that. Not to mention Harris' ressurgence. I have been to the WCC Championship game in recent years at The Orleans. it's electric! If you haven't been, it's a great time. It might as well be a home game for the Zags. Bulldog fans travel extremely well. Especially to Vegas. They are everywhere. Been going to Vegas for the Opening rounds of March Madness the last 3 years too and you can't go anywhere without seeing them. Tourney isn't the same without them and this is a statement game and a must win. Zags will cover and I wouldn't be surprised if it's by double digits. 1.5 point swing is not public money. That is sharp money pounding a line that is at least 2-3 point too low. I had this game at -4.5 before the line came out. Case in point: Look at the UNC line Saturday night! Swung 3 points from dog to favorite. And look what happened..Take Zags.
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HeadOverHeart	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
MVP Joined: Nov 2007 Posts: 17866 Location: Michigan	#18 Posted: 3/5/2012 4:00:46 PM Line dropping to 133 tells me books think St. Mary's will have trouble getting the rebounds and trouble scoring.
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PR9	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 1517 Location:	#19 Posted: 3/5/2012 4:09:44 PM 6 pt teaser Gonzaga +3.5 and Drexel +9 260/200
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