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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Early Season System |
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absolutea6 |
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#1 Posted: 9/28/2011 1:08:35 PM The System plays on teams who had an above .500 win % in away games the previous year.
Max: 2 game play per team and all bets are flat.
Since the away team is usually an underdog, this system feeds on the probability that the team can win at least 1 of their first 2 away games.
Last 2 years for the system:
2009 - +6 units (+8 units on first game / -2 units on 2nd)
2010 - +8 uints (+1.5 units on first game / +6.5 units on 2nd)
Any thoughts on this system or ways to improve it would be appreciated.
I have an excel speadsheet for this, but I don't know how to post it in this forum. |
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FrankShades |
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#2 Posted: 9/28/2011 1:42:24 PM
Are you playing the 2nd game only if the 1st game loses? Were the Units calculated using 1 units bets? Do you have any info on the record?
RPI prob won't be available to use as a filter, but I would guess that if you limited this to games against non-playoff teams from prior year or something to that affect then you would see the win% increase. |
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speedemon |
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#3 Posted: 9/29/2011 12:17:46 PM
Why won't the RPI be available Frank?
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absolutea6 |
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#4 Posted: 9/29/2011 1:02:57 PM I am playing the 2nd game only if the first game results in a loss.
1 unit bets on each game (bet on 2nd only if first losses).
Will continue to try and use more filters, but it is time consuming.
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absolutea6 |
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#5 Posted: 9/29/2011 1:34:53 PM
2009
Away Games W1 W2 TOT
Above 500 Total 8 0.58 8.58
Away Above 500 7.8 -2.03 5.77
Playoff Teams 6.2 -0.88 5.32
Playoff/Away >500 3.8 -2.03 1.77 |
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absolutea6 |
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#6 Posted: 9/29/2011 1:36:45 PM 2010
Away Games W1 W2 TOT
Above 500 Total 0.65 4.37 5.02
Away Above 500 1.5 6.37 7.87
Playoff 2.75 5.13 7.88
Playoff/Away >500 2.41 7.13 9.54 |
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FrankShades |
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#7 Posted: 10/4/2011 11:41:24 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by speedemon:
That's exactly what I was thinking too,a two game chase but need to add some filters.
Why won't the RPI be available Frank?
RPI isn't available until about a month into the season when the necessary data points are available for the calculation. You could use prior year ending RPI, but doubt that would be very helpful. |
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absolutea6 |
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#8 Posted: 10/7/2011 10:27:02 AM The System plays on teams who had an above .500 win % in away games the previous year.
Max: 2 game play per team and all bets are flat.
Pit W 1.32
Phi W 1.12
Mon L -1.1
(YTD) +1.34 Units
Friday Plays
(Nashville, Chicago, Tampa Bay) |
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absolutea6 |
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#9 Posted: 10/8/2011 1:41:39 PM Friday
Nashville W 1.00
Tampa Bay W 1.00
Chicago L -1.20
(YTD) +2.14 Units
Sat Plays
(Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Phoenix) |
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ERBATIZ |
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#10 Posted: 10/8/2011 2:12:03 PM  |
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absolutea6 |
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#11 Posted: 10/10/2011 9:42:49 AM Sat
Carolina L -1.00
Columbus L -1.00
Dallas L -1.00
Phoenix L -1.00
Detroit W 1.00
(YTD) -1.9 Units
Mon Plays
(Minnesota, Carolina, Vancouver, Phoenix, Calgary)
*(Bold means game 2 of 2 game chase)
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