Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: LESSON FROM TODAY GAME TNF
WAIWAI send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WAIWAI
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 404
Location: Minnesota
#1
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:06:05 AM
PUBLIC IS NEVER WIN AGAINST VESGAS. IT WAS CLEARLY THAT MONEY GO TO PITTS ABOUT 68%, IN THE MEAN TIME 32% ON TITANS. IT WAS SAME THING LIKE MNF (TEXANS VS JETS). THE TOTAL OF TNF WAS SET AT 43.5. PUBLIC LIKED UNDER ABOUT 58%. BUM.... ONLY 42% LIKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME. WHAT IS THAT TELLING YOU????!!!!!
I JUST WANT TO SHARE MY THOUGHTS NOT MEAN TO TEASE ANYBODY. EVEN THOUGH I WON TODAY, LMFAO
quote
Bet_The_House
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Bet_The_House
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 2366
Location: Australia
#2
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:07:42 AM
The lessson is that blocked punts and 4 onfield injured players taken off during a game can darn your behind
quote
WAIWAI send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WAIWAI
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 404
Location: Minnesota
#3
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:11:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bet_The_House:

The lessson is that blocked punts and 4 onfield injured players taken off during a game can darn your behind

DID YOU HAVE THE STEELERS ON YOUR TICKET?
quote
WAIWAI send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WAIWAI
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 404
Location: Minnesota
#4
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:33:18 AM
bol
quote
fever
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
fever
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 15695
Location: Ontario
#5
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:41:13 AM

I posted this already in another thread tonight after the game.

Pittsburgh was off huge intra-state rivalry game (win) against the Eagles. The Titans needed a breakout game to try to salvage something. I don't get how people continue to lay large points on the road. Yes, Pitt lost SU. They had the chance to win it but were a yard short on the FG try. Was that fixed too?

Before tonight, Road Favorites were 11-18 ATS making the home dogs 18-11 ATS or 65%!! . Home Dogs are even 16-14 SU counting this game.

Overall, dogs in general this season are 45-30 or hitting at a 60% clip. This game wasn't fixed my friend

I don't want to be a ball buster but read the points I made above. I bolded your statement above on purpose. Do you understand what you are saying? With all due respect, Do you mean to tell me that Shaun Suisham purposely missed that 54 yard field goal attempt that would have put the Steelers up by 3 late? Or, according to the inference made in your statement, did the NFL in collusion with the boys in Vegas suddenly turn on super powered fans to be in the face of Suisham to ensure that his kick fell short?

I don't mean to insult you ... don't take this the wrong way but do you realize how silly your statement is?

Like I said, the Steelers are a public darling and to back them you have to pay a premium.

Pittsburgh was 2-2 going into this game. Not world beaters by a long shot. They came off a huge win against the Eagles, had a short week and failed to cover as 4 point favorites in last year's meeting at home against the Titans. Remember they let leads slip away to lose in both their games, first against Denver and then against the Raiders who themselves aren't the cream of the NFL.

The Titans lone win was against the Lions. not a horrible team to say the least.

Also, did bettors forget that the Steelers are horrible road chalk? They were 10-17-1 ATS as road favorites under Tomlin.

This game wasn't rigged. It was an over inflated line that got bet-down to 5.5 in some shops before game time.

No fix, just public perception biting the public in the behind once again.

I wrote a long rant about this very same thing earlier in the week. People need to stop focussing their efforts on handicapping games according to who the public likes or doesn't like.  You are wasting your time if you do.  Focus your handicapping on the game itself. Vegas knew that ther perception bet was on Pittburgh.  Bettors have short memories and everyone focussed on the Steelers win over a quality Eagles team last week and the Titan's huge loss. Everyone forgot that the Steelers are 0-2 on the road including a loss to the Riaders and that they are a horrible road favorite under Tomllin.  The books knew the public would back Pitt on the perception and inflated the price to absorb all the money that was surely to come in on the Steelers and to try to entirce Titan money which did flow in late as the line closed at 5.5 at a lot of spots.

 

 

quote
T_Rav1088 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
T_Rav1088
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 841
Location: North Carolina
#6
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:45:56 AM
Did he say it was fixed?  I don't think he did?  Just that its better to side with the house than the public?  I say this all the time.  I didn't see much of an angle on tonight's game, thought it was pretty tight myself, and it could've gone either way.  Minus a blocked punt Pitt probably is good.  I read this (while poorly worded) as the guy just saying its not a good idea to side with a ton of public money in games like this. 
quote
mariner24
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mariner24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 2225
Location: New York
#7
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:49:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WAIWAI:


DID YOU HAVE THE STEELERS ON YOUR TICKET?
   i was on the titans, but im not rubbing it in. that isnt what this forum is about. so grow up. and spend the money you won on the titans on some grammar lessons
quote
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Riceboi
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5371
Location:
#8
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:53:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fever:

I posted this already in another thread tonight after the game.

Pittsburgh was off huge intra-state rivalry game (win) against the Eagles. The Titans needed a breakout game to try to salvage something. I don't get how people continue to lay large points on the road. Yes, Pitt lost SU. They had the chance to win it but were a yard short on the FG try. Was that fixed too?

Before tonight, Road Favorites were 11-18 ATS making the home dogs 18-11 ATS or 65%!! . Home Dogs are even 16-14 SU counting this game.

Overall, dogs in general this season are 45-30 or hitting at a 60% clip. This game wasn't fixed my friend

I don't want to be a ball buster but read the points I made above. I bolded your statement above on purpose. Do you understand what you are saying? With all due respect, Do you mean to tell me that Shaun Suisham purposely missed that 54 yard field goal attempt that would have put the Steelers up by 3 late? Or, according to the inference made in your statement, did the NFL in collusion with the boys in Vegas suddenly turn on super powered fans to be in the face of Suisham to ensure that his kick fell short?

I don't mean to insult you ... don't take this the wrong way but do you realize how silly your statement is?

Like I said, the Steelers are a public darling and to back them you have to pay a premium.

Pittsburgh was 2-2 going into this game. Not world beaters by a long shot. They came off a huge win against the Eagles, had a short week and failed to cover as 4 point favorites in last year's meeting at home against the Titans. Remember they let leads slip away to lose in both their games, first against Denver and then against the Raiders who themselves aren't the cream of the NFL.

The Titans lone win was against the Lions. not a horrible team to say the least.

Also, did bettors forget that the Steelers are horrible road chalk? They were 10-17-1 ATS as road favorites under Tomlin.

This game wasn't rigged. It was an over inflated line that got bet-down to 5.5 in some shops before game time.

No fix, just public perception biting the public in the behind once again.

I wrote a long rant about this very same thing earlier in the week. People need to stop focussing their efforts on handicapping games according to who the public likes or doesn't like.  You are wasting your time if you do.  Focus your handicapping on the game itself. Vegas knew that ther perception bet was on Pittburgh.  Bettors have short memories and everyone focussed on the Steelers win over a quality Eagles team last week and the Titan's huge loss. Everyone forgot that the Steelers are 0-2 on the road including a loss to the Riaders and that they are a horrible road favorite under Tomllin.  The books knew the public would back Pitt on the perception and inflated the price to absorb all the money that was surely to come in on the Steelers and to try to entirce Titan money which did flow in late as the line closed at 5.5 at a lot of spots.

 

 



thanks for posting it after the game lol
quote
shooter15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
shooter15
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 291
Location: Canada
#9
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:53:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fever:

I posted this already in another thread tonight after the game.

Pittsburgh was off huge intra-state rivalry game (win) against the Eagles. The Titans needed a breakout game to try to salvage something. I don't get how people continue to lay large points on the road. Yes, Pitt lost SU. They had the chance to win it but were a yard short on the FG try. Was that fixed too?

Before tonight, Road Favorites were 11-18 ATS making the home dogs 18-11 ATS or 65%!! . Home Dogs are even 16-14 SU counting this game.

Overall, dogs in general this season are 45-30 or hitting at a 60% clip. This game wasn't fixed my friend

I don't want to be a ball buster but read the points I made above. I bolded your statement above on purpose. Do you understand what you are saying? With all due respect, Do you mean to tell me that Shaun Suisham purposely missed that 54 yard field goal attempt that would have put the Steelers up by 3 late? Or, according to the inference made in your statement, did the NFL in collusion with the boys in Vegas suddenly turn on super powered fans to be in the face of Suisham to ensure that his kick fell short?

I don't mean to insult you ... don't take this the wrong way but do you realize how silly your statement is?

Like I said, the Steelers are a public darling and to back them you have to pay a premium.

Pittsburgh was 2-2 going into this game. Not world beaters by a long shot. They came off a huge win against the Eagles, had a short week and failed to cover as 4 point favorites in last year's meeting at home against the Titans. Remember they let leads slip away to lose in both their games, first against Denver and then against the Raiders who themselves aren't the cream of the NFL.

The Titans lone win was against the Lions. not a horrible team to say the least.

Also, did bettors forget that the Steelers are horrible road chalk? They were 10-17-1 ATS as road favorites under Tomlin.

This game wasn't rigged. It was an over inflated line that got bet-down to 5.5 in some shops before game time.

No fix, just public perception biting the public in the behind once again.

I wrote a long rant about this very same thing earlier in the week. People need to stop focussing their efforts on handicapping games according to who the public likes or doesn't like.  You are wasting your time if you do.  Focus your handicapping on the game itself. Vegas knew that ther perception bet was on Pittburgh.  Bettors have short memories and everyone focussed on the Steelers win over a quality Eagles team last week and the Titan's huge loss. Everyone forgot that the Steelers are 0-2 on the road including a loss to the Riaders and that they are a horrible road favorite under Tomllin.  The books knew the public would back Pitt on the perception and inflated the price to absorb all the money that was surely to come in on the Steelers and to try to entirce Titan money which did flow in late as the line closed at 5.5 at a lot of spots.

 

 


I like the way you think! This is a post Ill remember, the NFL is not about teams anymore, mostly its situational spots and big Trends ATS and past history. The end 
quote
fever
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
fever
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 15695
Location: Ontario
#10
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:10:35 AM

Riceboi "thanks for posting it after the game lol"

I'm not handicapping the game AFTER the game.  I had the Titans and the over that I posted before the game started but had no time to write up my reasons.  I was merely hitting home the point that people need to forget about looking at who the public likes because a lot of that is based on flawed perception and not the facts.  People need to look deeper and handicap the game for what it is, not just focussing on the "last game",

Cheers bud.

quote
SuperCappa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SuperCappa
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 967
Location:
#11
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:24:40 AM
Even though Pittsburgh beat Philadelphia. That garbage wasn't impressive at all. I like to cap games first. If I choose a side and it happens to be against the public then so be it. Sometimes the public wins too. Change your strategy. Gambling might be a guessing game but in Football its based on real numbers. Hard Work pays off. But first you have to put in work.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
FeedMeCappers send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
FeedMeCappers
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 3505
Location: Virginia
#12
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:30:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

PUBLIC IS NEVER WIN AGAINST VESGAS. IT WAS CLEARLY THAT MONEY GO TO PITTS ABOUT 68%, IN THE MEAN TIME 32% ON TITANS. IT WAS SAME THING LIKE MNF (TEXANS VS JETS). THE TOTAL OF TNF WAS SET AT 43.5. PUBLIC LIKED UNDER ABOUT 58%. BUM.... ONLY 42% LIKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME. WHAT IS THAT TELLING YOU????!!!!!
I JUST WANT TO SHARE MY THOUGHTS NOT MEAN TO TEASE ANYBODY. EVEN THOUGH I WON TODAY, LMFAO


On prime time games I think its important to at least look at and see which way the public is playing the game, but dont let it be the deciding factor.  generally if i like a team in a prime time game and I see the public is pounding them, I just lay off.  I just use this for games of this type... If its a 1 pm game on the other hand on sunday with two bull garbage teams that no one cares about... if the public is 70/30 one way vegas doesnt give a garbage because there isnt a ton of money coming in..you gotta take in to account the amount of money that is being wagered on each game (thats why i stated above to check these numbers on prime time games because money is generally pouring in).  As for totals, I wouldnt put as much importance as to what the public is doing because theres generally way more people betting spreads than totals. 
quote
degengambler34 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mandalay Bay |
degengambler34
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 2673
Location: Nevada
#13
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:45:10 AM
The lesson i learned is that if a punt gets blocked, you have 4 starting offensive players get injured in game, and your qb throws a pick in the red zone near the end of the first half then the  other side gets lucky and wins??
quote
SuperCappa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SuperCappa
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 967
Location:
#14
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:51:38 AM
How is that a lesson. Its unpredictable. That's more like a bad beat
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
wizardofroz
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
wizardofroz
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 5620
Location: Kentucky
#15
Posted: 10/12/2012 2:15:40 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

PUBLIC IS NEVER WIN AGAINST VESGAS. IT WAS CLEARLY THAT MONEY GO TO PITTS ABOUT 68%, IN THE MEAN TIME 32% ON TITANS. IT WAS SAME THING LIKE MNF (TEXANS VS JETS). THE TOTAL OF TNF WAS SET AT 43.5. PUBLIC LIKED UNDER ABOUT 58%. BUM.... ONLY 42% LIKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME. WHAT IS THAT TELLING YOU????!!!!!
I JUST WANT TO SHARE MY THOUGHTS NOT MEAN TO TEASE ANYBODY. EVEN THOUGH I WON TODAY, LMFAO

No, the lesson learned is that anyone that types in ALL CAPS is an attention person and an imbecile.

quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.