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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: I don't see how this prop can lose
TheSituation559 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:08:32 AM
Ravens (first to kick off)
Ravens win coin toss they will kick (have all year)
49ers win coin toss they will want the ball first. Ravens are not going to change what got them there. Vegas thinks this as well since it is a -150 for Ravens
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PureHoppiness send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#2
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:17:48 AM
I'm sold. good looks. and good luck 
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#3
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:20:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheSituation559:

Ravens (first to kick off)
Ravens win coin toss they will kick (have all year)
49ers win coin toss they will want the ball first.
 
I'd LOVE to hear your logic on this, since the 49ers have deferred to the 2nd half on nearly every coin toss they've won this season.
 
 
It's actually quite comical that you think this can't lose.
 
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VegasVandal
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#4
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:20:39 AM
Some things I found I thought you may like to know:

Dont ask me how i found this but the NFC is 14-1 on winning the coin toss over last 15 SB's. Only one that was won by AFC was Pats last year.

the coin toss winner has elected to receive the opening kickoff in 43 of the 46 games played.

Baltimore elected to defer when they won the toss against the Patriots in this years AFC Championship game.

SF won both their playoff coin flips and they elected to receive once and kickoff once

So if this trend continues the NFC (49er's) will win the coin toss and 50% chance they elect to receive.

Here's how I see it:

If 49er's win coin toss 50% chance of it going either way according to what they have done thus far (If I were to guess, I would say they they will elect to receive more times than not since they don't want to put instead pressure on their defense that's been shredded early in games)

If Balt wins coin toss I project an almost 100% chance they kick the ball and rely on their defense to stop an opening drive


So basically what I'm saying is the -150 is warranted and is likely the right side. BOL
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#5
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:25:50 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by VegasVandal:


SF won both their playoff coin flips and they elected to receive once and kickoff once

So if this trend continues the NFC (49er's) will win the coin toss and 50% chance they elect to receive.

Here's how I see it:

If 49er's win coin toss 50% chance of it going either way according to what they have done thus far (If I were to guess, I would say they they will elect to receive more times than not since they don't want to put instead pressure on their defense that's been shredded early in games)



This is very, very wrong.

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VegasVandal
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#6
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:30:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

This is very, very wrong.



I was referring to what they have done in the playoffs thus far not the entire season. Bottom line is you cant expect a team to treat a coin toss decision in the SB the same as a regular season game.

 I would even go out on a limb and say that a high percentage of those 43 of 46 superbowl coin toss winners that elected to receive weren't electing to receive in almost all of their regular season games
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#7
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:40:08 AM
Very good info Vegas Vandal
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:45:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



I was referring to what they have done in the playoffs thus far not the entire season. Bottom line is you cant expect a team to treat a coin toss decision in the SB the same as a regular season game.

 

I can comprehend what you were referring to and you are wrong; or presumptuous, at the least.

How can you possibly dismiss what they've done ALL year, and only wavered from ONE time??

How can you possibly ignore their entire body of work?

I can tell you that it is FAR more likely they will defer if they win the coin toss, but hey....convince yourself otherwise, because they went against their tendency ONE time.

 

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#9
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:45:25 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TheSituation559:

Very good info Vegas Vandal

 

Horrible info, actually

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#10
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:47:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

 

Horrible info, actually

 

Forgive me....Vegas Vandal did post good information.

His conclusion is very flawed though.

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#11
Posted: 1/29/2013 1:01:58 AM
i wouldnt jump out of that window just yet
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VegasVandal
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#12
Posted: 1/29/2013 1:02:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

 

Forgive me....Vegas Vandal did post good information.

His conclusion is very flawed though.



lmao where the hell are your stats backing up your argument? You are using one teams season body of work to justify them making a decision in the SB. I have posted plenty of stats showing teams elect to receive more likely than not. Sure some of it is presumptuous but I was using trends to back up what I think will happen without trends. No doubt Balt elects to defer. They will trust their defense to hold  the 49'ers on first drive. Sure its opinion but its based off what I have seen from the Ravens. i could definitely be wrong
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#13
Posted: 1/29/2013 1:09:08 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



lmao where the hell are your stats backing up your argument? You are using one teams season body of work to justify them making a decision in the SB. I have posted plenty of stats showing teams elect to receive more likely than not. Sure some of it is presumptuous but I was using trends to back up what I think will happen without trends. No doubt Balt elects to defer. They will trust their defense to hold  the 49'ers on first drive. Sure its opinion but its based off what I have seen from the Ravens. i could definitely be wrong

I'm not going to debate you anymore about coin toss decisions. I've watched every Niner game the last 2 seasons and I've seen them elect to receive twice.

How convenient you left out the Saints game last playoffs where they deferred....

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#14
Posted: 1/29/2013 1:10:04 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



lmao where the hell are your stats backing up your argument? You are using one teams season body of work to justify them making a decision in the SB. I have posted plenty of stats showing teams elect to receive more likely than not. Sure some of it is presumptuous but I was using trends to back up what I think will happen without trends. No doubt Balt elects to defer. They will trust their defense to hold  the 49'ers on first drive. Sure its opinion but its based off what I have seen from the Ravens. i could definitely be wrong

I would say most

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#15
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:57:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

I'm not going to debate you anymore about coin toss decisions. I've watched every Niner game the last 2 seasons and I've seen them elect to receive twice.

How convenient you left out the Saints game last playoffs where they deferred....

 

 

GO BACK and watch again cause I watched them win the coint too 10 times this year and received 6 times and deferred 4.......

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#16
Posted: 2/1/2013 2:09:16 PM
Here's some real info from Steve Merril, rather than speculation.

49ers have received 5 of 9 won coin tosses, but they've deferred 3 of the last 4 times.
When winning the coin toss, Ravens have deferred 8 of 9 times this season.

As BigNiner alluded to, I've watched many SF games last year and this year and Jim seems notorious for deferring.  He loves to put his defense on the field first and get fired up.  I can't even remember when he took the ball rather than defer in 2011.  Speculating a bit, but I think some of those won SF coin tosses may have been when Kap was still fresh and Jim wanted him to get as much snaps as he can so he elected to recieve.

I understand the prior history in SuperBowl is very strong to recieve.  In this case, whoever wins the toss will most likely defer, Ravens get to call it.  Ultimately that's what you're betting on.


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#17
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:29:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

I'm not going to debate you anymore about coin toss decisions. I've watched every Niner game the last 2 seasons and I've seen them elect to receive twice.

How convenient you left out the Saints game last playoffs where they deferred....

 

Then wouldn't it be a tremendous value bet on the Niners for everyone since it's -150 Bal (I just go by his #), meaning a +value on the Niners?

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#18
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:59:19 PM

Sticking with the coin toss. Anyone have any ideas on what Ravens ( I believe Ray Lewis) will call?

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#19
Posted: 2/1/2013 6:37:26 PM

this thread is like that glass tank full of dirt that shows elementary school kids how ants build their colonies  but in this case its full of the inner workings of us       gamblers!!!

 

 

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#20
Posted: 2/1/2013 11:09:58 PM
So, 49ers typically defer except for the one exception during the playoffs. The Ravens deferred in the AFC Championship, but what have they done all year? Anyone know? I'm seeing -105 for Ravens to receive opening kickoff (Betus). 
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#21
Posted: 2/2/2013 2:09:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gowitdaflo79:

So, 49ers typically defer except for the one exception during the playoffs. The Ravens deferred in the AFC Championship, but what have they done all year? Anyone know? I'm seeing -105 for Ravens to receive opening kickoff (Betus). 

Post #16 should explain everything.
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#22
Posted: 2/2/2013 12:30:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheSituation559:

Ravens (first to kick off)
Ravens win coin toss they will kick (have all year)
49ers win coin toss they will want the ball first. Ravens are not going to change what got them there. Vegas thinks this as well since it is a -150 for Ravens


I made this exact wager at -110 before the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Not terribly excited about it though.
I'm just hoping the Ravens win the toss.


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#23
Posted: 2/3/2013 6:33:51 PM



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#24
Posted: 2/3/2013 6:35:26 PM
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#25
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:57:19 PM
easy money
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