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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Public / Sharp percentage experts wanted - enlighten me please.....
DiscoD69 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
DiscoD69
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#176
Posted: 12/5/2008 2:53:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Disco - I read your post - and please dont take this as disrespectful - but that is really what I describe as anecdotal evidence and personal opinion.
 
You make lots of assumptions about who is betting the bengals that might or might not be accurate - and your opinion might easily be seen by someone else exactly the opposite.
 

That's the point! There is no formula or system...stop asking for one. You use it as you would use any stat or trend or anything...objectively.

Thats why the books report it! Because people use it with their own oppinions. People will draw conclusions for BOTH sides.

Like, you're basically saying if some1 can't provide me with concrete evidence that looking at PPG (or any stat) will give you 100% winning system then there is no point at looking at it. 

Yes I'm making assumptions, that's part of what capping is about. So let me ask you this: If it's not sharp money on the bengals, then the books don't care if people are on the Colts, so either way I lean Cincy. Agree or disagree?

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#177
Posted: 12/5/2008 3:00:51 PM

Also, LVSC sent it out at -14.5, and it's currently -13.5 accross Vegas (-13 at the Palms).

So you tell me what this all means.

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#178
Posted: 12/5/2008 3:55:38 PM
Disco,
Regarding the Indy/Cincy game:
There are plenty of "sharps" who are blindly jumping on double digit dogs this year. They bit on the chance to take Cincy at 14 early because they didn't see the public ever pushing it to 14.5 with Indy having trouble covering smaller spreads this year. It's interesting that LVSC released the line at 14.5, which definitely would have attracted a lot of action from the pros in vegas who love big dogs. No vegas or offshore books were gutsy enough to open it higher than 14 as far as I can see.

So you're getting mixed signals here. Yeah, 65-70% of bets are coming in on Indy so far and the line has dropped basically everywhere except BetEd and Bodog (very square books), but it looks like the smart linesmakers wanted to set a line high enough to entice some early action from the sharps, only to have their books balanced out by the public on Sunday morning.

The public will think they're getting a good Indy price at 13 or 13.5 on Sunday since the game opened at 14, and that might entice even more action on the fav.

This game is the second or third most popular game to bet on so far, which is strange considering Indy is laying so many points and has a bad ATS record this year. Obviously Cincy is not a popular team to bet on either. It looks like the lines have been set to entice as much balanced action as they can get in this game and it's playing out perfectly for them.

This game is just an example of good linesmaking, imo.
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LTE23 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetUS.com |
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#179
Posted: 12/5/2008 4:06:55 PM
Nice Post. This is what we need. Its Nice to know that Sports are helping other Countries out eventhough its not talked about great Job Van...Keep up the good work.
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#180
Posted: 12/5/2008 4:08:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bird_fidrych:

Disco,
Regarding the Indy/Cincy game:
There are plenty of "sharps" who are blindly jumping on double digit dogs this year. They bit on the chance to take Cincy at 14 early because they didn't see the public ever pushing it to 14.5 with Indy having trouble covering smaller spreads this year. It's interesting that LVSC released the line at 14.5, which definitely would have attracted a lot of action from the pros in vegas who love big dogs. No vegas or offshore books were gutsy enough to open it higher than 14 as far as I can see.

So you're getting mixed signals here. Yeah, 65-70% of bets are coming in on Indy so far and the line has dropped basically everywhere except BetEd and Bodog (very square books), but it looks like the smart linesmakers wanted to set a line high enough to entice some early action from the sharps, only to have their books balanced out by the public on Sunday morning.

The public will think they're getting a good Indy price at 13 or 13.5 on Sunday since the game opened at 14, and that might entice even more action on the fav.

This game is the second or third most popular game to bet on so far, which is strange considering Indy is laying so many points and has a bad ATS record this year. Obviously Cincy is not a popular team to bet on either. It looks like the lines have been set to entice as much balanced action as they can get in this game and it's playing out perfectly for them.

This game is just an example of good linesmaking, imo.

bird - very solid take! All good points...I'm glad you wrote on this.

Van - Also, it's hard to create an exact science out of this because it also depends on when you get the numbers. I've been trying to keep it as consisten as possible and just do it on Friday afternoons when I know I'll always have the time. However, I always take it for what it is...considering the fact that the SI board does not reflect the entire betting market, and especially does not reflect the entire smart or sharp betting market (as smart dog players would wait as long as possible to try and get the best line)

This is why I think it's useful to a certain extent, but asking for some1 to prove there is a system or exact science you can use it with to create and blindly follow which always produces winners is just plain crazy. If some1 does it, props to them & tonnes of respect...same as if some1 created a system of simply looking at trends or stats and creates a system that always produces winners. Props if they do.

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#181
Posted: 12/5/2008 5:16:45 PM
Ask any large real book or local they hardly ever gets 50/50 action on a game.It's a myth it just never works out that way.Books are on side in almost every game and they have been getting hit hard this year.One book said it has been the most public winning year he has every seen.
 
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