NFL Favorite Loss System

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Favorite Loss System
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 9/11/2013 10:37:53 PM
I have back tested teams which have lost straight up as the largest ATS favorites each week from 2005 to 2012 (ex, 2012 Week 1 New Orleans was -8, but they lost SU). Here is what I found: 

3 game chase (weeks 1 to 14), the record is 117-9. Using -110 lines the you would be up 63 units (7.89 units per year). Two years would have lost money.

Game breakdown for the past 8 years: 
Game A = 68-58 for 54%
Game B = 37-21 for 64%
Game C = 12-9 for 57%

64% winning percentage is great for NFL. Throw in a labby line and you may be golden, however, in the 2006-07 year, it went 3-5. Number of B games per year varies between 4 and 8. 

I will be tracking this a little closer this year. I think I will only play B games on a labby line. (for a team to qualify for a B game, it must loose Game A ATS, not just skip Game A). 

All of the information and additional stats can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aut5sPYPWjN6dDFSZmxlbWZVUjFFRkxiRkg3RHB5enc#gid=0

You will see alot of information, including summary of 4 game chases, and chasing not only the top ATS loser, but also top 3 teams. 

Let me know what you think.

Good luck this year 

Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 9/11/2013 10:49:03 PM
Pittsburgh on the clock for week 2?

GL
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 9/11/2013 11:00:33 PM
Week 1 Results

Pittsburgh enters chase. Lost week 1 as 6 point favorites. 

Week 2 Plays

Pittsburgh A
TheBeefMan PM TheBeefMan
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Posted: 9/12/2013 12:24:05 AM
Being that this wins at about 57%, I think you would be better off betting straight up to win 3 units per game. Less volatility.
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TheBeefMan PM TheBeefMan
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Posted: 9/18/2013 11:31:54 AM
Steelers: game 2
Eagles: game 1

Are these the plays for this week?
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Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 9/18/2013 11:40:53 AM
Yup.
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Uuggghhhh PM Uuggghhhh
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Posted: 9/19/2013 8:47:39 AM
Hi Bart,

I looked over your docs and read your post and I am confused.  How is the system 117-9 when it went 13-12 last year.  I looked at google docs for the 3 game chases in 2012, and not counting the first game it looks like the system went 13-12.  I am confused as to how you make money with this system.  with the juice its losing money for 2012.  Am I missing something?
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 9/19/2013 10:20:27 PM
Hey Ugh, 

the 117-9 record is for a 3 game chase. 
Last years record was 15-14, but if you did a 3 game chase you would have gone 15-0. That's how you may be able to make money. 

As I said earlier, this system is not perfect, it does have losses, but B games are running around 64%...not bad. 
Uuggghhhh PM Uuggghhhh
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Posted: 9/21/2013 9:55:39 AM
lol, im so confused.  Was philly this past week and b game? and is steelers this week a c game?
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 9/21/2013 11:11:23 AM
Philly was A game on Thursday.
Pitts is B game on Sunday.
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