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[NBA Betting] Topic: The best methods to bet the NBA |
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Uconn34 |
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#151 Posted: 1/13/2010 4:03:53 PM  |
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JBrilman |
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#152 Posted: 1/13/2010 4:35:28 PM
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165yds |
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#153 Posted: 1/13/2010 6:30:46 PM Here are my plays for tonight
Wiz +11.5
Clippers ML and +7.5
Dallas -6
Indy ML |
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Fernandox37 |
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#154 Posted: 1/13/2010 7:21:25 PM
But... what do you suggest with this? (Get free points 2nd half) To bet the favorite or the underdog??
Please answer me :) |
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JazzyOne |
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#155 Posted: 1/14/2010 6:03:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by SolidCapper:
Why don't u just stop gambling, instead of writing stupid posts like this, ok???
U honestly need to get a life all your posts r negativity and bashing people in their threads u are a friggin moron... get lost
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JMatthew |
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#156 Posted: 1/14/2010 11:11:02 PM  Definately agree with some of these points, especially the travel angle. I look for teams on long road trips, no rest, etc. The Denver / altitude angle is great if you can catch the books sleeping.  |
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KMang |
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#157 Posted: 1/15/2010 10:56:35 AM 165, Thanks for this post....these types of discussions are what forums like this are good for.... (although I liked one guy's post where he said he had a great system where he faded posted picks based upon how many $ signs were in the post title!).
Personally, I have been playing the 2nd half lines for awhile with about a 65-66% success rate. I seem to have found one situation that may be ripe for a filter to be applied, but I just wanted to see if you have had a similar experience.
I have done very well playing a team B that is a 10 point underdog for instance and they are down by 14 at halftime. Those are money plays.... The spot where I seem to have alot less certainty is when a team is a favorite but the game is a runaway...
Last night Morehead State was a 17.5 point favorite who was up by 30 at halftime. I passed on SE Mizzou State at +4 and they lost the 2nd half by 10. Also, Washington was up by 19 at halftime as a 8.5 point favorite. On that game I jumped on Stanford +0.5 in the second half and they continued to get walloped.
my long-winded question is this.....Have you found that if a game gets a little out of hand by halftime that this betting strategy proves to be more erratic? I would throw out bets in that situation in their entirety, but UMiami was a 2nd half winner after being down by 27 to Vtech at Half and the Nets won that same night after being down 36 at half to the Celts....
For the time being I keep playing them as I see them, but was just looking for more insight on developing a feel for when a game is out of hand and when a team is going to make a 2nd half run for self-respect....
 
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MrGlue |
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#158 Posted: 1/15/2010 11:22:22 AM
Really looking forward to tracking some of your angles/methods...
When it comes to the NBA, I'm just getting started and don't have a lot to work with.
Thanks!
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Borat38 |
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#159 Posted: 1/15/2010 11:59:47 AM
Another thing: matchups do factor in a game. It's not oddsmakers who play the game, it's the players. Example: DEN has covered 8 out of their last 10 meetings vs NOH, if I'm not mistaken. And NOH has covered their last 9 games vs OKC. With relatively same lineups, that is a good indicator of mismatches. Another mismatch: HOU with Yao Ming in the lineup has never been beaten by DWade's Heat squad. Size disadvantage, pure and simple. To illustrate: Yao Ming was 12 for 12 from the field for 30 pts in their Jan 17, 2009 meeting. No one on the undersized Heat frontline was big or strong enough to challenge Yao. If matchups didn't matter in the first place, then what's the use of abiding by the "star player out" rule of thumb, when the numbers are going to even themselves out anyway?
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lowkey252 |
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#160 Posted: 1/15/2010 12:06:36 PM |
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#161 Posted: 1/15/2010 12:25:24 PM
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tecradude92 |
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#162 Posted: 1/15/2010 4:21:21 PM |
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McAlpine |
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#163 Posted: 1/15/2010 4:32:50 PM
OK. Let's just say that your betting rules are not rules. They are just guidelines. Every game is a different situation, and rules and systems do not apply to every game.
Successful sports betting is an intelligence test. You have to be able to evaluate intangibles: motivational situations, injuries, recent play by your team, and other situational factors.
If you could reduce it to 3 or 4 betting rules and put it on a spreadsheet, then everyone would quit their day job and bet sports for a living, wouldn't they?
Record the box scores every night. Watch a game every night. Use the computer inside your head. When your intuition tells you that the line is just WRONG, then you have a bet.
Just trying to help. 
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165yds |
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#164 Posted: 1/15/2010 5:23:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by KMang:
165, Thanks for this post....these types of discussions are what forums like this are good for.... (although I liked one guy's post where he said he had a great system where he faded posted picks based upon how many $ signs were in the post title!).
Personally, I have been playing the 2nd half lines for awhile with about a 65-66% success rate. I seem to have found one situation that may be ripe for a filter to be applied, but I just wanted to see if you have had a similar experience.
I have done very well playing a team B that is a 10 point underdog for instance and they are down by 14 at halftime. Those are money plays.... The spot where I seem to have alot less certainty is when a team is a favorite but the game is a runaway...
Last night Morehead State was a 17.5 point favorite who was up by 30 at halftime. I passed on SE Mizzou State at +4 and they lost the 2nd half by 10. Also, Washington was up by 19 at halftime as a 8.5 point favorite. On that game I jumped on Stanford +0.5 in the second half and they continued to get walloped.
my long-winded question is this.....Have you found that if a game gets a little out of hand by halftime that this betting strategy proves to be more erratic? I would throw out bets in that situation in their entirety, but UMiami was a 2nd half winner after being down by 27 to Vtech at Half and the Nets won that same night after being down 36 at half to the Celts....
For the time being I keep playing them as I see them, but was just looking for more insight on developing a feel for when a game is out of hand and when a team is going to make a 2nd half run for self-respect....
I'm so glad you are having success with this. This % will only get higher as you get more experience. I suggest taking ML 2nd halves as you get better(only dogs though), these are great wagers and are what take away from juice eaters of -110, try writing down to see how you would've done if you had taken ML.
About blowout games in the NBA I found that the best way to handle it is take the other team like the Nets the other night or simply taking under. When one team is getting smoked at the half the under hits at an extemely high rate. The reason for this is the scrubs come in and play most of the 4th. Some will say less D, I would counter by less O. As for college I tend to stay away from blowout games at the half because I am not nearly as comfortable like the NBA. Gun to my head I would take the under but only if the over hit first half in college. |
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165yds |
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#165 Posted: 1/15/2010 5:30:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Borat38:
I agree with most of the points here, 165yds, but here's one thing that doesn't work: betting shortly before a game. Why? Because if you wait for lines to move, you're already too late. The sharp money is in by then, and you think you're getting value with the spread. Case in point, there is one sharp who has never lost an Indiana bet in 9 years of betting (forgot his name). He placed a bet on INDI +10 last Dec. 4 when the game was INDI@UTA. Line slid all the way down to UTA -8 by gametime. So what happened? People who took INDI +8 thinking they were gonna cover because sharps were on INDI were burned (game score: INDI 87 - UTA 96). Did the INDI sharp win? Yes. Did those who followed him win? Unfortunately not.
Another thing: matchups do factor in a game. It's not oddsmakers who play the game, it's the players. Example: DEN has covered 8 out of their last 10 meetings vs NOH, if I'm not mistaken. And NOH has covered their last 9 games vs OKC. With relatively same lineups, that is a good indicator of mismatches. Another mismatch: HOU with Yao Ming in the lineup has never been beaten by DWade's Heat squad. Size disadvantage, pure and simple. To illustrate: Yao Ming was 12 for 12 from the field for 30 pts in their Jan 17, 2009 meeting. No one on the undersized Heat frontline was big or strong enough to challenge Yao. If matchups didn't matter in the first place, then what's the use of abiding by the "star player out" rule of thumb, when the numbers are going to even themselves out anyway?
Talk to me about a 100 games not one. I never look at a wager as one bet.
Your talking about certain spots which is what gambling is. I am happy you feel you have a clear edge in the matchups. But here's the problem. Your talking about such a small situation that you can only bet these spots so few times in a given year. Do you think betting Den vs NOH or NOH vs OKL is going to make you a winner over the course of the year? The only way to beat the books is by using true and tried methods that over the long haul are successful. Not five or ten games a year you think you have a clear edge on. |
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#166 Posted: 1/15/2010 6:15:37 PM
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gametime2008 |
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#167 Posted: 1/15/2010 6:24:32 PM
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brunobandit |
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#168 Posted: 1/15/2010 6:43:29 PM |
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Y2MV |
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#169 Posted: 1/15/2010 6:49:42 PM
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Borat38 |
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#170 Posted: 1/15/2010 8:27:02 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds: Talk to me about a 100 games not one. I never look at a wager as one bet.
Your talking about certain spots which is what gambling is. I am happy you feel you have a clear edge in the matchups. But here's the problem. Your talking about such a small situation that you can only bet these spots so few times in a given year. Do you think betting Den vs NOH or NOH vs OKL is going to make you a winner over the course of the year? The only way to beat the books is by using true and tried methods that over the long haul are successful. Not five or ten games a year you think you have a clear edge on.
I never said it was about just one game. I just cited a couple of examples to illustrate. The discussion points have been made previously. To each his own.
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Johnnynumbers |
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#171 Posted: 1/15/2010 9:49:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds: Sorry would have no idea as I didn't bet one game in the NFL this weekend or watch. Couldn't find a side or total I liked so I passed. Imagine that, passing on NFL weekend football, how awful. I'll say this about the NFL it is by far the toughest sport to cap. Everyone is an expert it seems. SolidCapper I must've said this 20 times in this thread to just watch the second half lines and track them yourself over the course of a 100 games you than can see some tangible numbers, not two games this weekend and for the 20th time patience and picking your spots are what gambling is about. Use situational betting and use your head.
165...Great Post. I have not watched an NFL game by choice other than the Super Bowl for about 5 years. Realizing that Vegas has a huge advantage over them seems too hard for most morons to comprehend. Fantasy Football has made everyone into "experts" just as you said. The "any given Sunday" idea is the 1st reason to stay away, but the amount of action on both sides and amount of information available makes it impossible to find a consistent angle for an advantage. I'm sure lots of people in these forums will be happy to tell me how much $ they have made from NFL wagers, but I will stick to CFB, NBA and baseball.
I will add just one angle along the lines of your star player out which is I always like to bet on a team who fires their coach (in season) for about 2 games. Same reasoning as star player being out, in that the team steps up their effort. |
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lillefty |
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#172 Posted: 1/15/2010 10:04:02 PM  |
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SolidCapper |
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#173 Posted: 1/15/2010 10:30:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds: Here are my plays for tonight
Wiz +11.5
Clippers ML and +7.5
Dallas -6
Indy ML
Record on these plays: 1 win - 4 losses
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SolidCapper |
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#174 Posted: 1/15/2010 10:31:35 PM
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