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Author: [College Football] Topic: **Week 1 Large Spreads**
LonghornHoosier
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#26
Posted: 7/23/2012 12:32:06 AM
sounds goods...
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#27
Posted: 7/23/2012 6:04:10 AM

what's up C10, good to see you in for another year

it's tough FL opening at 30 or more against anyone......more surprising than the 89th in passing was probably the 73rd in rushing...and most good numbers against Furman, UAB and FAU...sure it's a new year and everyone is an AA before they play however their QBs still have a lot to prove...same for running game losing Demps and Rainey and was 73....are they suddenly top 30 in either category now...not likely

UGA shouldn't miss those 4 guys against Buffalo...they're backups are better than the Bulls starters at those spots

although would like to take Meyer in first game the MiaOH defense is a little tougher than most and Dysert looks dangerous in garbage time particularly with Harwell...maybe even some damage before garbage time..-25 or less would be a fair number though

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#28
Posted: 7/23/2012 6:16:25 AM
Believe me losing Demps and Rainey is not a negative. They were even worse last year offensively than they will be this year and won both of their first games against teams like BG by a combined score of 80-3.. Because of the defense
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#29
Posted: 7/23/2012 7:09:35 AM
what's up JW...don't get me wrong I had them large against FAU and UAB...laying 23 or less as I recall though...and BG is better than those...realize BG gets killed probably around 40-10, just saying there's not a lot of value laying 28 or more as compared to 23 or less against FAU or UAB last year...agree the offense will be better..
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#30
Posted: 7/23/2012 7:13:43 AM
actually 24 against UAB and -34 against FAU....wow didn't realize offense was 105 in total yards so yeah they will improve
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#31
Posted: 7/23/2012 7:16:44 AM
unfortunately until one of the QBs steps up...over past few years FL is falling into the same problem as some other teams Tex, FSU, MiaFL where they cannot find a QB that plays up to ranking..Manuel is getting decent however took him about 7 yrs and he's still shaky against good defenses...when the offense puts up 400+ against a good defense then you'll know they're getting closer to being back
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LonghornHoosier
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#32
Posted: 7/23/2012 9:19:54 AM

Nos - good to see you.  good comments on FLA.

I know you were been high on UGA last year.  I am interested in your perspective on week 1 against DUFL Buffalo squad.   Boykin, Rambo and the MJ Posse along with Ogletree are gone for week 1, along with the loss of IC (though his backup the freshman seems highly regarded) along with a rebuilt 3 star average O Line, do you think Richt will want to make a statement in week 1.  Jones is a freak and I think the D will be shutdown even without those guys.   The 4 replacements for the suspended players were all 4 star prospects coming out of high school.   I can't imagine there would be too much of a drop off.  Steele capped the game at 41 before the suspensions and IC departure.   I am thinking the offshores and vegas will start it at 32 and it will be 35 by game time.  Buffalo's coach is in his 3rd year, though Buffalo has struggled since Turner's departure.  Do you think UGA has enough fire power with Murray et al and a good enough D to cover that number?  Without the suspensions and IC departure, I think UGA would have won this game 56-3.  With the suspensions and departure of IC, I think 45-7.  

I will appreciate your thoughts...

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LonghornHoosier
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#33
Posted: 7/23/2012 9:52:18 AM

Nos - Also, I would appreciate your thoughts on

Nebraska -17  v S Miss in week 1

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#34
Posted: 7/23/2012 11:26:18 AM

Nos

Good to see you again, looking forward to this year.

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#35
Posted: 7/23/2012 6:21:26 PM

C10 - looking forward to it buddy

longhorn - same here, yeah UGA was pretty solid after the first couple games other than blowing the 16-0 lead against MSU in the bowl, although I doubt they will try to make a statement or show all their cards with SEC opener on deck it probably won't matter...had SC on deck in '08 (ULL) and '10 (CMU) and still played hard, same with NM St last year before Auburn..it's going to be a long day for the Bulls on both sides however not looking to lay more than 32-34...RB should be ok, however OL looks pretty thin on talent and depth until frosh develop...lack of depth on OL and due to defensive suspensions won't matter much until the 4th garbage time, by then Buffalo will be looking for the bus...52-10...here's a pretty good article that covers the UGA OL situation

http://atlanta.sbnation.com/georgia-bulldogs/2012/3/15/2872322/georgia-bulldogs-2012-depth-chart-preview-offensive-line-is-the-big

I guess everyone here is piling on Nebraska....however I kind of like some of So Miss players on both sides, Collins is a beast with 98 tackles and 19.5 TFL and good offensive players other than unproven QB....game will come down to new QB for USM...if Campbell who did fairly well in spring is effective they could stay with them, if not they'll probably lose by 3 TDs...Neb used to be solid home team early in the season, however only 2-6 as DD home fav over last two years...since QB is big key and not sure how he'll play we'll probably skip that game

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#36
Posted: 7/25/2012 12:09:36 AM
Oklahoma @ UTEP

OKIE
-all star QB
-lots of returning starters
-Mike Stoops should always be a Defensive Coordinater. He will have these guys ready to play.
-Offensive line, Defensive Line way better than UTEP
-only big minus is they are playing away

UTEP
-UTEP is a bottom 20 team (my fav bets of the weeks 1-3)
-only 4 on a horrible Defense
-can't rush QB
---Horrible run Defense 
-lost most of their RB's to graduation (i think there returning back had 150 yards last year)
-crazy injuries and missed time on the Offense and Defensive line. I think only 1-3 starters got to play the rest were out for spring
-not good in pass protection

I have Oklahoma winning >= 38. 47-9 to 56-17
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LonghornHoosier
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#37
Posted: 7/25/2012 12:47:21 AM

bunny - i agree with your points...do you think QB  "lame"son can get at least 2 TD's against this Sooner secondary...this is a top 5 game for me,but I am not sure if I will pull the trigger in my top 3.    Price is a good coach. UTEP plays tough at Sun Bowl.  If this were at Norman, OU could name the score, but at El Paso, in a packed stadium with a late start 9:30 pm CST, I am not sure about this game yet.   Right now, my top 5 plays are...

LSU -40 over N Texas

Georgia -31 over Buffalo

N Dame - 14 over Navy

Alabama -11 over Michigan

Oklahoma -29 over UTEP

the OU D line seems to be suspect...I think the secondary will be improved, but these guys got shelled by the Big XII last year...

I will appreciate your thoughts...

 

 

 

 

 

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#38
Posted: 7/25/2012 7:41:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

LSU -40 over N Texas

Georgia -31 over Buffalo

N Dame - 14 over Navy

Alabama -11 over Michigan

Oklahoma -29 over UTEP

I LOVE all of these (haven't looked much into ND though)

UM's suspensions will bring the line up yes, but doubt it hits 14...even if, I'll take it at that number.

If Oklahoma is under 30, I may unload.

I can see ND trying to impress in wk 1, showing "this is their year"....plus BK is a person and will definitely run up the score if he can.

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#39
Posted: 7/25/2012 9:26:45 PM
No one loves big spreads as much as I do but I think these are waaay too high. Probably because the Books got slammed hard last year with big favs on the road. Probably only play Alabama and Oklahoma first half. BOL to you guys.
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#40
Posted: 7/25/2012 11:02:35 PM
i see two big spread games in week 1 that should be great bets... have to see where the lines fall...


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#41
Posted: 7/26/2012 1:31:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

bunny - i agree with your points...do you think QB  "lame"son can get at least 2 TD's against this Sooner secondary...this is a top 5 game for me,but I am not sure if I will pull the trigger in my top 3.    Price is a good coach. UTEP plays tough at Sun Bowl.  If this were at Norman, OU could name the score, but at El Paso, in a packed stadium with a late start 9:30 pm CST, I am not sure about this game yet.   Right now, my top 5 plays are...

LSU -40 over N Texas

Georgia -31 over Buffalo

N Dame - 14 over Navy

Alabama -11 over Michigan

Oklahoma -29 over UTEP

the OU D line seems to be suspect...I think the secondary will be improved, but these guys got shelled by the Big XII last year...

I will appreciate your thoughts..


OK @ UTEP:
-I wouldn't put an away game with a spread of -30 plus in my top 3 either
-Stoops is a very above average D coordinator. He will have them ready
-UTEP has oline and dline, no returning RB's, and one decent receiver.
-Huge talent discrepancy across the board
-Big difference between BIG 12 QB's and mid conferences

If you had to make me stack rank pre-lines:

1. Alabama (this will be a SEC beatdown. It has the feel of that Michigan St. game)
2. Notre Dame (ND is too athletic for the Service academies )
3. LSU (don't like the -40 but I wouldn't put my enemies dime on North Texas... they might not get 50 yards in this game)
*4. Georgia (I think they could but i don't trust them at all. Also, @ Missouri on tap)
5. OK (love them except for the road thing)
6. Like UCF @ Akron (don't trust UCF. don't trust them on the road. Akron is horrible though)


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