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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: So if you had a system that really worked and I mean really worked
Crashdavis565
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Crashdavis565
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#1
Posted: 3/20/2012 10:15:15 AM
Would you share it or keep it for yourself. You know, if you shared it, the books would eventually correct their MISTAKE when they started to lose too much money.
Just a thought.

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akell09
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akell09
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#2
Posted: 3/20/2012 10:22:34 AM
Money management is the key to a successful system.  Most of the systems in this forum use some type of martingale of labby line to increase their bets till they win.  The books really can't do much to adjust to that.  If someone had a system where they made straight bets using the same amount everytime on the bet and were winning at a very high percentage, then the books could adjust to stop their loses.
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TotalsTown send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 3/20/2012 1:32:49 PM
akell09 pretty much has your answer.
I wondered about the same thing though before releasing my system but decided that it probably wouldn't make a big difference and getting to talk to likeminded people and earning some extra money would be worth the small risk. I make an amount in the X,XXX Euro range every month usually and only place bets in Las Vegas when I'm there for vacation. That money comes from Pinnacle and they probably know I exist but don't care (since Pinnacle is awesome).
 They only thing they could do is adjust the odds after I bet anyway since I have 5 plays everyday and my win% is therefore only around 53% usually. I also don't use the same amount on every bet but some twisted money management system that I made changes to for 2+ years and is in some way kind of similar to labby lines.
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Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#4
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:41:41 PM
akell nailed it. truth is there is no system that can hit a high percentage without some time of chase involved. books can't adjust for chases.
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Johnnythunders send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Las Vegas Hotel and Casino |
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#5
Posted: 3/21/2012 10:39:13 PM

HI CRASH !

I shared my systems already in this forum on handicapping all sports thread is NEW age of handicapping !

What did I GET ?  BASHED Flamed told post picks or STFU !

so darn em all either do as i say or keep losing !

It's solid advice !

If you want the systems i have anyone can friend me and i'll give you link to where i got them from !

 

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sambuca frank
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sambuca frank
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#6
Posted: 3/21/2012 11:24:16 PM
If a system does not work over 500,000 games, then it's not a system
Trends are alot better to follow. Some years pitching rules, some years offense rules. Remember when the avg. o-u in hockey used to be 6 or 7 goals? I find handicapping trends are a lot easier than systems to predict. Of course you get them years where everything is normal.
Just look at covers leader board in every sport. These people have won a lottery. Yes, 10,000 people in a contest is and they are hitting 56% over thousands of games. LUCK OR SKILL?
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Crashdavis565
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Crashdavis565
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#7
Posted: 3/21/2012 11:37:33 PM
Good points.
I was kind of getting at the idea that if you know how to win and you start telling everyone, then the casinos will adjust and you will no longer be able to win.
But, if you keep it quiet, on the down low, you will actually take all the money
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Trigg send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 3/22/2012 12:53:02 AM
Would you post because you genuinely want to help others or post because you crave attention and would love to be hailed as a hero by the many hundreds of followers to a system? Sadly, a high percentage of forum users are of the latter. That's just my opinion.
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#9
Posted: 3/22/2012 1:22:06 AM
P.S I don't want my opinion and thoughts to be misconstrued here. Don't get me wrong there are many decent cappers genuinely wishing to help others along the way, but unfortunately there are many just in it for self-glorification. I'm certainly in no way implying you yourself is one or anyone in Systems & Strategies for that matter.

Waffle, waffle, waffle LOL.
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FoolishTool send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Belmont.ag |
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#10
Posted: 3/22/2012 2:33:49 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Trigg:

Would you post because you genuinely want to help others or post because you crave attention and would love to be hailed as a hero by the many hundreds of followers to a system? Sadly, a high percentage of forum users are of the latter. That's just my opinion.

The thing about a winning system is that although it may win in the long run no system wins all the time so even if someone posted the greatest system ever as soon as it loses 3 or 4 in a row or 8 of 10 or whatever people will jump ship and write it off as just another losing system! I guess it's just human nature, i'm sure i'm guilty myself, i've probably tailed some cappers with great records several times only to see them lose a few days in a row then i gave up on them, maybe some of these guys wind up winning season after season, but if we jump aboard at the wrong time we will jump ship if we get off to a bad start!!!!!!!!!  

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Randisist
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#11
Posted: 3/24/2012 4:01:01 PM
Good thread...

Would/Will I post the system? Not NO, but HELL NO...
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Crashdavis565
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Crashdavis565
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#12
Posted: 3/24/2012 4:23:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Randisist:

Good thread...

Would/Will I post the system? Not NO, but HELL NO...




I agree with helping others. The thing for me is, when people ask me my opinion, if I am hitting at an amazing 56% on the year, I cannot overlook the 44% of errors and costing them money. In this tourney, I am raking it at over 70%, that said, my belief now is I will revert back to the mean, as I have never done 70% for an entire tourney in my life.
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#13
Posted: 3/24/2012 4:28:36 PM
The last few years there was a thread about the correlated football parlays, fav/ov, dog/un. In 2009 they were hitting about 65% and then I suggested that we start playing 1H's only with slightly different parameters. Increased the win% to about 69%. Stupidly we were discussing the plays openly at the end of the season. 2010 the 1H's were hitting about 70% and anybody that could play them (most but not all books had blocked them) was making a ton of money, myself included, still stupidly posting the plays on the public forum. Halfway thru 2010 the main book I was using started blocking the EXACT parameters that I was using for the 1H. Anyone that posts here that says the books don't read these forums is wrong. This was too much of a coincidence. I had to go physically to Mexico for the rest of 2010 to finish the season betting these things. It was worth it to do so. 2011 I went to Mexico every single weekend to place the bets live. After the first five weeks, the casinos I was using had their cashiers call the central guy everytime I went to place a bet and the line was moved anywhere from .5 to a full point on a 1H bet. It was very difficult to make big money the rest of the season since some of those 1H's were turned into pushes or losers. It would have helped if I wasn't the only gringo in the books. I could have flown under the radar a little better. So in answer to your question, if I had another system that worked without chasing, I would NOT share it, sorry guys.
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