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[MLB Betting] Topic: Get it Back / 1 of 5 ((Wed. 8/22)) |
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KingKenny13 |
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#51 Posted: 8/22/2012 2:51:15 PM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#52 Posted: 8/22/2012 3:18:15 PM
I've paged the man I goto for these kinds of questions and numbers of sorts...
 Paging KeyElement. |
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GiLmo574 |
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#53 Posted: 8/22/2012 3:19:33 PM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#54 Posted: 8/22/2012 5:08:23 PM
 CWS/NYY *OVER 8.5* @ -115 = [2U]
STL/HOU *OVER 7.5* @ -110 = [2U]
Pirates *TT OVER 4* @ -110 = [1U]
Pirates -1 @ +100 = [1U]
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BIGCAT_LSU |
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#55 Posted: 8/22/2012 5:12:38 PM  I will be with you on the Reds over tonight. |
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armyhog |
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#56 Posted: 8/22/2012 6:45:53 PM  |
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KeyElement |
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#57 Posted: 8/22/2012 7:27:22 PM
36 x 150 = 5400
50 x 100 = 5000
So on 86 bets you net 400
but, at +1.5 you list 88 wagers, not 86, so I will work with 53-33
just for purposes of example
53 x 100 = 5300
33 x 120 = 3960
So on 86 bets you net 1340, and that would seem to make the +1.5 much more advantageous, but; I think you took down something wrong or screwed up the math because +1.5 versus a +160 favorite should be around -150, not -120. In that case you would have
53 x 100 = 5300
33 x 150 = 4950, net 350, which would appear to be comparable
Another thing I would note that helps level the playing field is that with the +150 dog you put 8600 at risk and earn 400 for a return on risk of 4.65%
At -150 you would put 12900 at risk to earn 350 so your return on risk would equal only 2.71% return on risk.
I hope I read the problem correctly or all is for naught, but the main thing is there is no way I can see +150 dogs being available at +1.5, +120. That is just too low.
Another point is that when we get into run lines, parlays, teasers or any other exotic bet, versus straight action, there is no way the books offer a better deal, there is always disadvantage, it has to work that way. Less volume means the book needs a higher margin to be safe and can not offer better odds than what his straight action demands. That's life.
Worthy discussion, hope I helped.
Thank GiLmo for shagging me down, that's what it's all about. BOL
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KeyElement |
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#58 Posted: 8/22/2012 7:30:23 PM |
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KeyElement |
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#59 Posted: 8/22/2012 7:32:56 PM
another correction to a phrase, just too used to using + when I type.
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ac_bum |
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#60 Posted: 8/22/2012 7:39:29 PM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#61 Posted: 8/22/2012 7:57:03 PM 
@ Zwer - that garbage is worthy of printing out and keeping in your wallet. |
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Damon102 |
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#62 Posted: 8/22/2012 9:22:04 PM
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BIGCAT_LSU |
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#63 Posted: 8/22/2012 9:36:30 PM  |
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db333 |
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#64 Posted: 8/22/2012 9:39:11 PM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#65 Posted: 8/22/2012 9:52:20 PM
D'Backs RL @ +110 = [1U] |
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Zwer23 |
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#66 Posted: 8/22/2012 10:13:14 PM
I guess that was just a thought, coz i checked few more teams the season before, and then favorites were winning it hard on low odds....150+ record: 12- 22 , average odd +175, that is gained 21 and lost 22units ==> -1Unit
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BIGCAT_LSU |
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#67 Posted: 8/22/2012 10:28:46 PM Parlayed Both. |
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GiLmo574 |
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#68 Posted: 8/22/2012 10:48:02 PM
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Zwer23 |
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#69 Posted: 8/23/2012 5:25:01 AM |
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