Tremendous Value With Cardinals +160 Today

Forum: MLB Betting Page 2 of 2  1 2  
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Tremendous Value With Cardinals +160 Today
DanTos8715 PM DanTos8715
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 10209
Michigan
 
DanTos8715
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:37:01 PM
Its a bit confusing comparing lines from the past. Different matchups, injuries, and situations (on the road, 1 game playoffs) factor into a line. I agree its inflated, but I wasnt expecting a +125 either. More in the +135 - +140 range. I might bite on Cards -1 or a Cards/over 6.5 parlay. If the Cards win, I dont see this game staying below 7.
Posted using a mobile device.
KennyWoo PM KennyWoo
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 2510
 
KennyWoo
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:51:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

From a value standpoint you make sense regardless of todays outcome.Betting heavy chalk in games like this is an easy way to destroy a bankroll.

Good luck



Absolutely correct.

KennyWoo PM KennyWoo
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 2510
 
KennyWoo
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:52:01 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by slick15:

Never any VALUE in a loser

This is the thinking of someone who goes broke, sir.

Jose_Reyes PM Jose_Reyes
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 20350
New York
 
Jose_Reyes
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:54:24 PM
What up Tone? Tough game IMO. Hard for me to lay chalk, but at the same time it's not easy goon against Medlen either. Good luck to you either way.

I am curious what you think about the O's. I think a lot of people are expecting Texas to just take care of business. I see a Texas team that is reeling, and lacks confidence. Saunders' numbers in Arlington are a little deceiving as they were mostly compiled prior to 2010. Tremendous value with Baltimore tonight, and I'm close to making them a play. Haven't touched an MLB game in months, but liked the spot here. Appreciate any insight. Hope to see you in the football forums soon.

(handshake)
Posted using a mobile device.
lakers34kb PM lakers34kb
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 25763
Texas
 
lakers34kb
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:56:27 PM
23 game winning streak why go against it?
bbkdta PM bbkdta
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 7667
Indonesia
 
bbkdta
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:06:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lakers34kb:

23 game winning streak why go against it?

facing bum teams, last good matchup was josh johnson but marlins lineup you know how good they are..

most intense matchup so far was vs detwiler, nats hits him 7 times in 7 IP but only scored 1. however 7 hits can kill you any other day, detwiler also hit 7 times only conceded 2. braves proceed to win 5-1 because 3 run on top 9th.

he might proceed to win but i wont lay that many money. take my chances with lohse here. 
rzagza PM rzagza
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9027
Pennsylvania
 
rzagza
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:09:35 PM
Medlen has been THE best pitcher in baseball in the 2nd half, easily.  That said, it's all about whether he can handle the emotions.
Tigermike1975 PM Tigermike1975
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4751
United States
 
Tigermike1975
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:12:36 PM
This game is no play for me. Without going into lengthy detail, I have the Braves winning this game but no way can I justify the price. Best of luck to everyone.
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 9543
Virginia
 
5t4r5align
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:19:00 PM
I agree.. value is on the Cards.  Playoffs imo its always best to look to bet against the public.  They have such a strong presence in the playoffs that it almost always brings value to the other side.  I'm going with the under in this game myself 
Tone10 PM Tone10
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 4929
 
Tone10
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:44:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

Its a bit confusing comparing lines from the past. Different matchups, injuries, and situations (on the road, 1 game playoffs) factor into a line. I agree its inflated, but I wasnt expecting a +125 either. More in the +135 - +140 range. I might bite on Cards -1 or a Cards/over 6.5 parlay. If the Cards win, I dont see this game staying below 7.

Injuries and situations are sometimes way overblown... for the most part, lines from the past provide a pretty solid indicator because sharps do not make overreactions (though you don't want to delve too far into the past. I'm not looking at Lohse's lines from say, July.)

Tone10 PM Tone10
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 4929
 
Tone10
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:52:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

What up Tone? Tough game IMO. Hard for me to lay chalk, but at the same time it's not easy goon against Medlen either. Good luck to you either way.

I am curious what you think about the O's. I think a lot of people are expecting Texas to just take care of business. I see a Texas team that is reeling, and lacks confidence. Saunders' numbers in Arlington are a little deceiving as they were mostly compiled prior to 2010. Tremendous value with Baltimore tonight, and I'm close to making them a play. Haven't touched an MLB game in months, but liked the spot here. Appreciate any insight. Hope to see you in the football forums soon.

(handshake)

What's good buddy... where ya been?

I think the BAL/TEX line is very sharp and pretty much spot on. I'm using Saunders lines @ Felix Hernandez (+145) and at home vs. Sabathia (also +145) as baselines.

My instincts and past line data tell me in the same spots, Darvish is probably -120 @ Felix and -110 at home vs. CC. As such, I've got Darvish at 35 cents better than Felix and 10 cents worse than CC. By proxy then, I've got data to support a line of +180 for Saunders @ Darvish and +135 for Saunders vs. Darvish (which equates to roughly +185 for Saunders @ Darvish).

At either +180 or +185, that doesn't differ much at all from the opening line (TEX -185/+175) or the current line (TEX 200/+185).

Hope this helps... BOL with whatever you decide, Jose.

tinfoils PM tinfoils
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 50888
 
tinfoils
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:56:46 PM
Good luck Tone!
odog111 PM odog111
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 29
Massachusetts
 
odog111
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:09:36 PM
Parlay Cards +162 and under 6.5 +110 = +450 payout.  Good value there IMO
gtmoney76 PM gtmoney76
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 3725
 
gtmoney76
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:37:37 PM
Best bet here is probably under 3.5 1h cardinals don't score much on the road lohse and medlin are lock down guys early
Posted using a mobile device.
Jose_Reyes PM Jose_Reyes
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 20350
New York
 
Jose_Reyes
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:50:40 PM
Good stuff Tone. Much obliged. Been too busy to keep up with the constant grind of baseball. If I miss a few days in MLB, it feels like a month. Which in turn makes me feel like I'm just throwing darts. At least with football I have time to look at matchups and lines during the week, and try to make an educated decision by the weekend.

Hope all is well, brother. I'm liking your steelers this week. They needed that bye week.
Posted using a mobile device.
MIKECOUU78 PM MIKECOUU78
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 8076
France
 
MIKECOUU78
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:51:52 PM
PhillySportsFan PM PhillySportsFan
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1560
Pennsylvania
 
PhillySportsFan
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:14:10 PM
are you playing any games Tone?
Tone10 PM Tone10
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 4929
 
Tone10
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:21:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PhillySportsFan:

are you playing any games Tone?

No sir... just posting my thoughts. I stay away from MLB playoffs.

Tone10 PM Tone10
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 4929
 
Tone10
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:23:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

Good stuff Tone. Much obliged. Been too busy to keep up with the constant grind of baseball. If I miss a few days in MLB, it feels like a month. Which in turn makes me feel like I'm just throwing darts. At least with football I have time to look at matchups and lines during the week, and try to make an educated decision by the weekend.

Hope all is well, brother. I'm liking your steelers this week. They needed that bye week.

Good to hear all is well.

I hear you on the MLB thing... it's a sport where you have to keep up on things daily. It's such a grind.

GL with the Steelers if you play them... I see it at -3.5 at most shops now, hopefully you can wait a bit and see if you can grab a -3 on Sunday if it falls. Not that much difference between -3.5 and -4 so I think it's worth the risk to wait it out.

For_The_Books PM For_The_Books
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 3114
Ontario
 
For_The_Books
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:11:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by football_007:

Value or sucker we all will find out later today.

A defending champion with their ace vs a hot pitcher who has beat nobody but crappy teams and he has to lay -160s ? Somebody must know something. I may be wrong but that is how I see it. I will take the Braves ( my team ) as I think this is sucker line to take StL. IMO.



TO CALL KYLE LOHSE AN ACE IS AN OVER STATEMENT YES HES HAVING A GOOD YEAR BUT NO WAY IN HELL IS HE AN ACE.....HES A 3RD STRING PITCHER AT BEST FACT
mmac66 PM mmac66
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 12725
South Africa
 
mmac66
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:23:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by For_The_Books:



TO CALL KYLE LOHSE AN ACE IS AN OVER STATEMENT YES HES HAVING A GOOD YEAR BUT NO WAY IN HELL IS HE AN ACE.....HES A 3RD STRING PITCHER AT BEST FACT

He is 16-3; 211 IP; 143 K's; 38 walks; WHIP of 1.09 would all argue that he is at least in the conversation for "ace"

I'm guessing there are almost 0 number 3 starting pitchers with stats like this.....

I am on Medlen and the Braves but Lohse is about as good as it gets this year.

mmac66 PM mmac66
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 12725
South Africa
 
mmac66
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:32:38 PM
Left out ERA of 2.83 for Lohse as well......
Tone10 PM Tone10
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 4929
 
Tone10
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:54:57 PM
Still don't know why the line closed that high... congrats to Cards backers.
Posted using a mobile device.
YoungProfit27 PM YoungProfit27
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 1147
 
YoungProfit27
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/5/2012 9:27:28 PM
Nice insight, Tone. 
Forum: MLB Betting Page 2 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.