Posted: 8/9/2012 11:18:57 AM
YTD 189-186 +36.34
CLV (Closing Line Value): +45.54
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +18.20
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
A 1-2 showing yesterday. Lone win was a no-sweater with the Marlins. Lost two one-run games with the Red Sox and Jays unfortunately.
Two plays for today, bet at opening BetOnline numbers and posted in my Wednesday thread.
908 Chicago Cubs +150
911 New York Yankees +110
Cubs bet is more of a play against Mike Leake... his last few starts he was -120 at home against James McDonald, -145 at home against Edinson Volquez, and -135 on the road against Lucas Harrell and the awful, awful Astros. These are not overly strong lines, and certainly not strong enough to warrant him laying -160 road chalk. Cubs are a much better team at home than on the road, +150 seemed like a nice enough number to take a shot.
Doug Fister has been really good lately, but the opening -120/+110 line says his power-rating is equal to Hiroki Kuroda's and I just don't feel like that's the case. I look at Kuroda's last two starts (both at home, -150 against Felix Hernandez and -160 against Felix Doubront) and can't help but think that Fister's lines in the same situation would be around 10 to 15 cents lower, something like -135 or -140 against Hernandez and -145 or -150 against Doubront.
Good luck today everybody.