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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Thursday 08/09 MLB (YTD 189-186 +36.34)
Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/9/2012 11:18:57 AM

YTD 189-186 +36.34

CLV (Closing Line Value): +45.54

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +18.20

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

A 1-2 showing yesterday. Lone win was a no-sweater with the Marlins. Lost two one-run games with the Red Sox and Jays unfortunately.

Two plays for today, bet at opening BetOnline numbers and posted in my Wednesday thread.

Thursday 8/9

908 Chicago Cubs +150

911 New York Yankees +110

Cubs bet is more of a play against Mike Leake... his last few starts he was -120 at home against James McDonald, -145 at home against Edinson Volquez, and -135 on the road against Lucas Harrell and the awful, awful Astros. These are not overly strong lines, and certainly not strong enough to warrant him laying -160 road chalk. Cubs are a much better team at home than on the road, +150 seemed like a nice enough number to take a shot.

Doug Fister has been really good lately, but the opening -120/+110 line says his power-rating is equal to Hiroki Kuroda's and I just don't feel like that's the case. I look at Kuroda's last two starts (both at home, -150 against Felix Hernandez and -160 against Felix Doubront) and can't help but think that Fister's lines in the same situation would be around 10 to 15 cents lower, something like -135 or -140 against Hernandez and -145 or -150 against Doubront.

Good luck today everybody.

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#2
Posted: 8/9/2012 11:19:59 AM
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Albertcore send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:58:29 AM
Yankees

Good luck buddy
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:59:50 AM
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#5
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:22:31 PM
hey is Cubbies @ +145 still a play in your opinion?
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#6
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:39:43 PM
put it in anyway ill be staying in this thread so i get the same line as you 
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tinfoils
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:41:33 PM
Good luck Tone!
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#8
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:11:02 PM
lines opening up for tmr
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NastyNate9
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#9
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:14:10 PM
GL Tone 
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Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:18:16 PM
Tomorrow.
 
Friday 8/10
 
New York Mets +115
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#11
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:19:26 PM
in
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#12
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:26:11 PM
thanks for posting as soon as possible
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#13
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:57:54 PM
GL TODAY
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Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 6:15:04 PM

Thanks, fellas.

Thursday 8/9

908 Chicago Cubs +150

911 New York Yankees +110

There was absolutely nothing easy about that one, but nice to get a 1-run game to swing my way.

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ac_bum
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#15
Posted: 8/9/2012 6:15:49 PM
 GL TONE
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Posted: 8/10/2012 12:26:16 AM

AC, thanks buddy.

Thursday 8/9

908 Chicago Cubs +150

911 New York Yankees +110

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