Wednesday 05/16 MLB (YTD 63-57 +16.78)

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Wednesday 05/16 MLB (YTD 63-57 +16.78)
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 12:03:09 PM

YTD 63-57 +16.78

CLV (Closing Line Value): +14.72

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +6.05

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Lost a unit yesterday. Came so close to hitting a +180 Cubs ML bet but they fell just short. My Reds wager never really had a chance, but the Rays managed to pull through to salvage the day a bit.

Another three plays for today.

Wednesday 5/16

953 Pittsburgh Pirates +160

965 St. Louis Cardinals +120

970 Toronto Blue Jays +115

I'm not really sure why, but BetOnline threw out some ridiculous opening lines for PIT/WAS and STL/SFO. I was not able to hit the submit button fast enough on either of these two wagers. Some absolutely ridiculous numbers. My personal lines for these were PIT +135 and STL -105 and that's about where they sit now. Still waiting for the Jays to move, but even if it doesn't I still like the play as I feel there's decent value on the home dog here.

Good luck to everybody today.

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/16/2012 12:09:30 PM
BOL today tone! 
depbmoc PM depbmoc
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Posted: 5/16/2012 12:12:15 PM
good luck 
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 1:49:39 PM

 switch, dep

Tomorrow's card just played after BetOnline posted numbers.

Thursday 5/17

Cincinnati Reds -105

St. Louis Cardinals +120

Houston Astros +140

Chicago White Sox +155

Tampa Bay Rays -120

GiLmo574 PM GiLmo574
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Posted: 5/16/2012 1:50:46 PM
Bucco's today...  



Awesome grab, BigTone.    


xbaggypants PM xbaggypants
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Posted: 5/16/2012 1:51:04 PM
Good Luck Tone, might jump on the Cards too
tinfoils PM tinfoils
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Posted: 5/16/2012 1:51:57 PM
Good luck Tone!
SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/16/2012 1:53:02 PM
I am surprised you didn't get on board the Athletic's train while it was riding hot. Was up to a line of +230 earlier today, I got them on the decent at +225 but now it's down to +210.

Was that too high a line for your system?
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 2:22:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SirRagnar:

I am surprised you didn't get on board the Athletic's train while it was riding hot. Was up to a line of +230 earlier today, I got them on the decent at +225 but now it's down to +210.

Was that too high a line for your system?

Good question... I tend not to look at lines in those ranges. When I'm doing my research and making my own line for the game, it's a lot harder to do for those games where the spread is going to be above -200 because of the variability involved. A 20 cent difference between my line of say -130 and an opening line of say -150 has more meaning than a 20 cent difference between something like -220 and -240.

Because of the wild fluctuations in those large spreads, I tend not to get involved.

Very nice grab on the A's though, SR.

Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 2:22:46 PM

Thanks again for all your support fellas.

Albertcore PM Albertcore
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Posted: 5/16/2012 3:13:49 PM
Good luck Tone10
SportsFreak69 PM SportsFreak69
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Posted: 5/16/2012 4:16:18 PM
Best of Luck 
NastyNate9 PM NastyNate9
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Posted: 5/16/2012 4:51:11 PM
GL Tone 
hitterno24 PM hitterno24
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Posted: 5/16/2012 4:55:01 PM
Goodluck tone
Posted using a mobile device.
ac_bum PM ac_bum
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:01:22 PM
 GL TONE
switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:14:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

Thursday 5/17

Cincinnati Reds -105

St. Louis Cardinals +120

Houston Astros +140

Chicago White Sox +155

Tampa Bay Rays -120


That SF game should be a great one tomorrow 
but the cws line feels strange 

Great numbers bro 
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:24:57 PM

 Albert, freak, Nate, hitter, AC

Thanks, guys.

Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:27:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:


That SF game should be a great one tomorrow 
but the cws line feels strange 

Great numbers bro 

Always appreciate the feedback, switch.

Just think that White Sox number is too high. Sale gets a ton of respect from oddsmakers, and rightfully so, he's really good (though he did struggle his last start). I had this one capped LAA -145 so I bit with the White Sox +155.

Had a chance to take the Orioles +125 and Marlins +140... ultimately decided against it but think I'm going to end up regretting that tomorrow. Oh well.

ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:28:42 PM
bol
switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:32:00 PM
yeah dude really thought id see you on the O's.
cant blame you tho man i really hate matusz
and NOT betting the fish is always a smart move 



i really wanna join you on stros but marcum @ minmaid:

14IP 4H 0R 3/14 BB/K .085 opp avg


Marcum is not quite right this year so lets hope the young stros bats can rough him up 
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 5:42:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

yeah dude really thought id see you on the O's.
cant blame you tho man i really hate matusz
and NOT betting the fish is always a smart move 



i really wanna join you on stros but marcum @ minmaid:

14IP 4H 0R 3/14 BB/K .085 opp avg


Marcum is not quite right this year so lets hope the young stros bats can rough him up 

I hear you switch, but I've learned to just play the numbers and ignore the trends. And I just think this number is too high, especially when you consider Marcum just closed -165 at home against Volstad (which would make him around -125 or -130 on the road against Volstad.)

When I compare that to -150 @ Stros against J.A. Happ, it just doesn't make sense. The Brewers have really been devalued these past couple weeks (check out tonight's MIL/HOU line), and -150/+140 in my opinion is just too big of a line. I had it capped around -130 or -135.

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/16/2012 6:05:45 PM
 solid, as always bud
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/16/2012 10:28:44 PM

Wednesday 5/16

953 Pittsburgh Pirates +160

965 St. Louis Cardinals +120

970 Toronto Blue Jays +115

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