Messages

YTD 37-32 +9.49

CLV (Closing Line Value): +8.94

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +2.99

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Split the card on Monday, cashing with the Rays and losing with the Jays.

We've reached the end of month one and I've already saved/won 3 units by betting at the open. Extrapolate that over the full six month season, and you're talking 18 units. That's 18 free wins just by betting early before the market moves. I can't stress enough how important it is to get the best of the number. The difference between +130 and +120 or even -105 and -110 may not seem like much, but believe me, it adds up quickly.

On to today's card. As always, these were posted in my Monday thread right after I bet them in the afternoon.

Tuesday 5/1

915 Miami Marlins +155

918 Toronto Blue Jays +150

927 Cleveland Indians +135

Looks like a possible misread on the Indians. That one has not moved like I thought and is currently sitting at +138 at Pinnacle. Regardless, I still like the play as I am buying Ubaldo Jimenez stock at a discount price.

Good luck today everybody.

 Thanks, fellas.

SirRagnar, I'll get back to you on that... in a rush right now but will detail a bit this afternoon.

Tomorrow's card after BetOnline posted their numbers:

Wednesday 5/2

Colorado Rockies +145

Chicago Cubs +155

Oakland Athletics +170

 AC, 3dog, Freak

Couple more additions after Cris posted their lines and numbers adjusted a bit. Final card for tomorrow:

Wednesday 5/2

Colorado Rockies +145

Chicago Cubs +155

Oakland Athletics +170

Texas Rangers EV

Cleveland Indians +130

Miami Marlins +120

Really a lot of it is feel... I believe I have a very good handle of pitchers who get strong lines and those who get weak lines. Here's a good example from a week ago behind my thought process.

Matchup: SEA (Felix Hernandez) @ DET (Adam Wilk)

My Line: DET -115

BetOnline Opening Line: DET +110

Closing Line: DET -116

When I was trying to make this line, I looked at each pitcher's last game. Hernandez closed -145 at home against Josh Tomlin and the Indians. I tried to gauge a theoretical line for Wilk at home against the Indians. Basing off a -105/-105 line, you automatically give 15 cents to the home team. Wilk/Tigers is obviously superior to Tomlin/Indians, I estimated about 20 cents worth, so I lined it at -140.

Hernandez -145 at home against Tomlin, Wilk probably about -140 at home against Tomlin. A 5 cent difference in favor of Hernandez. Did the same thing for Wilk's prior start against Yu Darvish. He closed +120, I figured +115 is what Hernandez would close at home against Darvish so again a 5 cent difference.

Again, home team automatically starts -120/+110. Subtracting 5 cents for the difference between Hernandez and Wilk is how I got my -115/+105 line in favor of Detroit.

You can also just tell when a line is off. BetOnline's opening line of Seattle -120 meant if they were at home against Wilk and the Tigers they would be around -150 (15 cent shift towards neutral away from Comerica, plus another 15 cent shift towards Safeco away from neutral). -150 against the Tigers compared to -145 his previous start against the Indians, it just didn't add up.

The play ended up losing, but I had a 26 cent edge. Sorry for the long response, but this is essentially how I do things. Create my own line and bet when the opener is wildly different.