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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Opening Game Favorite 94-1 in 2009 |
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buntyketti |
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#701 Posted: 3/14/2012 10:51:21 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by The__Man:
Are you functionally retarded? My statement was pretty straightforward.
hey buddy friend request sent . have some queries on the Quarters chase |
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spoutbec |
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#702 Posted: 3/14/2012 6:35:18 PM @The_Man
OK, but I interpret that a little differently. It seems to me that series starting out at -180 or higher odds are even more sure of a play rather than not being plays at all. In fact, PHO won their B game 3-0 in the series in question if I remember correctly, so a puckline win. Anyway, I agree that it doesn't hurt to back off from making a bet that you're not sure of, nobody ever went broke that way, but the PHO series was still an official play, whether you felt good about it or not.
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bettor2win |
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#703 Posted: 3/14/2012 8:00:45 PM |
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therizz |
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#704 Posted: 3/14/2012 8:47:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:
Wow rizz. This system is awesome AGAIN this year. I think next year Im guna tag along. I dont bet football so once hockey starts I will join. Stopped betting altogether aftr baseball last year. Good luck RIZZ.
Thanks BTW! Can't wait to get some MLB RPI going as well
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1Gamer |
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#705 Posted: 3/14/2012 11:26:54 PM |
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spoutbec |
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#706 Posted: 3/15/2012 3:00:23 PM |
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The__Man |
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#707 Posted: 3/16/2012 4:00:25 PM
I noticed the last few days, we were passing up teams who weren't quite -145 faves, but were beginning a 3 game homestand. SJ last night...ANA and WPG the night before etc. etc. etc. These teams were winning game A and it bothered me immensely as I wanted to profit off of them.
So I decided to do some research. I wanted to see exactly how precise this -145 line was to maximizing our returns on this system. I started with the 2006-07 season, and used various different closing lines. Here are my results:
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The__Man |
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#708 Posted: 3/16/2012 4:00:41 PM
-110: 677-53
+239.22 units
-120: 611-43
+255.82 units
-125: 574-38
+260.12 units
-130: 542-32
+277.68 units
-135: 495-30
+247.20 units
-140: 452-25
+245.50 units
-145: 417-22
+235.28 units
-150: 384-21
+210.54 units
-160: 307-16
+174.84 units
-170: 253-11
+162.14 units
-180: 202-11
+111.14 units
-190: 174-10
+91.4 units
I stopped at -190 as I realized I was just cutting
out more and more winners and less and less losers. As you can also see,
playing any favourite in general has actually fared BETTER than
favourites of -145 or greater! Crazy. Maximization apparently occurs
around -130. Not trying to undermine therizz, just doing my own
homework here. Hopefully he is not offended.
So feel free to do what you guys want to but I'm
personally gonna start playing favourites equal to/greater than -130,
not -145, and for that matter any favourite of -110 to -130 who I think
has a good 3 game schedule (for example they're playing CLB and NYI
after game 1).
All the best,
The Man
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The__Man |
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#709 Posted: 3/16/2012 4:01:13 PM  )
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Air1 |
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#710 Posted: 3/16/2012 4:40:39 PM
Must have taken a lot of time. I just starting something similar to this. Want to check out (1) yr by yr results (2) any correlation to road games thereafter (3) if A game won is chase, then results of fading for B/C game - as per Dussey's system.
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spoutbec |
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#711 Posted: 3/16/2012 4:53:04 PM That actually is pretty interesting The_Man, good work. I like the leeway this kind of knowledge gives when you make a bet early in the day and then the odds change so it's no longer official. Do you still chase it or not? Well, without knowing how series that started with other odds backtested, I would probably just write off the loss as a mistake bet, but now I might feel confident enough to chase anyway.
I'd be really interested to know exactly how betting puckline on all these series would work out. With the vastly better odds, it could be at least as good as an underdog system if it panned out. |
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spoutbec |
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#712 Posted: 3/16/2012 5:00:51 PM Today:
OTT -160 A
DAL at -125 so not official |
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Cape33 |
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#713 Posted: 3/16/2012 6:39:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by The__Man: (I had to break it up into 2 posts as there is a character limit. Apologies for any inconvenience. ) |
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Cape33 |
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#714 Posted: 3/16/2012 6:46:01 PM
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Air1 |
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#715 Posted: 3/16/2012 7:09:43 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Cape33:
Just found this thread, awesome job to OP and the_man. One question I have for the above back testing numbers. I am assuming those are Game A of a 3 game home stand? did you by any chance check if the 3 game chase works as well?
Cape those look like chase numbers. NOT the results of just an A Game bet. If that was the case vegas would have caught on and made lines of -900 or so for that A game.
In actuality A games hit about 58%.
Best Chase results are when the A game is at -170 for 95.8%
The Best chase (most units won) is 94.5% at -130
And the -145 lines are 94.99%
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trychome |
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#716 Posted: 3/16/2012 7:39:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by spoutbec: That actually is pretty interesting The_Man, good work. I like the leeway this kind of knowledge gives when you make a bet early in the day and then the odds change so it's no longer official. Do you still chase it or not? Well, without knowing how series that started with other odds backtested, I would probably just write off the loss as a mistake bet, but now I might feel confident enough to chase anyway.
I'd be really interested to know exactly how betting puckline on all these series would work out. With the vastly better odds, it could be at least as good as an underdog system if it panned out.
i've taken the op's suggestion and have been betting the puckline for lines that are -180 or higher. so far, none of them hit, but i ended up winning those series so its all good. my sample size is quite small since i just started using this system about 3 weeks ago so i dont know how much help this info is. i'll continue to bet the puckline on the high juice bets.
i would also like to thank the_man for the research. i wonder if -130 has consistently been the best cutoff line in the previous years. |
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spoutbec |
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#717 Posted: 3/17/2012 3:03:09 PM |
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The__Man |
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#718 Posted: 3/17/2012 4:25:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by spoutbec:
I'm curious about one thing The_Man. You show how many units would be won for each cutoff opening line to conclude that -130 is optimum, but that's assuming what kind of betting strategy? Would also be good info to know.
My apologies. Martingale betting strategy.
LA -120 could be a play today. I kinda like em. Yes they face SJ and St. Louis game 2 and 3 should they lose today, but why they are favoured against a much better NSH squad is odd to begin with. I feel like oddmakers know something I don't, and even if they happen to lose the first game, they play SJ next and St. Lou after, with both teams coming into LA on b2b road games. Kings should win one of those. They need points too in that tight behind playoff race. Probably gonna play them.
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1Gamer |
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#719 Posted: 3/17/2012 7:06:15 PM |
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r8drlife |
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#720 Posted: 3/18/2012 1:07:55 AM  |
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Air1 |
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#721 Posted: 3/19/2012 6:32:03 PM
-130, in the long run, has been the best play (with the new research done by The_Man). I personally would not have played LA at -120 when their next two are against SJ and STL, even with the back to back. Both LA and SJ are fighting for a playoff spot and then STL (no thanks).
Glad it worked out on the A game for all those who played it.
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Air1 |
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#722 Posted: 3/19/2012 6:34:18 PM
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gbpackman |
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#723 Posted: 3/19/2012 8:21:33 PM What do you think about a fade of the Ducks? They were red hot and now they are cold and need a miracle to make the playoffs. It seems they just can't win and have their tails between their legs.
San Jose -180 no? |
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gbpackman |
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#724 Posted: 3/19/2012 8:28:48 PM |
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The__Man |
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#725 Posted: 3/20/2012 10:24:06 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:
THIS YR if you are using therizz's system, but at -120 for the first game, then you would be -11.8 units.
Not so sure about that, plays <= -110 this year have gone 95-8. Plays <=-120 have gone 82-6.
That being said 6-8 losses is still high and if you're losing roughly 10 units per loss, not so great for overall units.
-130? 67-3. Pretty damn good. Always remember the bigger the favourite the better :)
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