|-- Yale lost first two games of its western swing, by 10 at Nevada, 16 at St Mary's; Bulldogs turn ball over 23.3% of time, lost by 26-16 in only two games vs top 100 teams. Iowa State is 8-0 vs teams not in top 100, with six of eight wins by 15+ points. Cyclones have eight days off after this, then start league play vs Kansas- they've played schedule #276.
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:03:48 AM
-- Florida Atlantic lost four of last five games, getting upset in last game at UL-Monroe; Owls turn ball over 23.8% of time, make just 41.1% of 2-pointers- their last three games with Hofstra were all decided by 4 or less points, with FAU winning last two, by 2-4 points. Hofstra lost last seven games, with six of seven opponents not even in the top 100.
-- Road team won last five UConn-Marquette games; Huskies won last two visits here, by 8-11 points. This is first true road game for UConn squad that is 2-2 on neutral courts, losing to NC State by 4, by 8 to New Mexico. Marquette is 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing at Florida by 33, by point to Butler on a neutral floor. First league game for both sides.
-- Maryland is #318 team in experience that is 11-1 playing 7th-easiest schedule in country; Terps are 7-0 vs teams not in top 200, winning by 22-9-17-32-15-33-29 points- they start ACC play Saturday. IUPUI is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-32-37 points; Jaguars are 1-6 on the road, with all six losses by 20+ points.
-- Clemson beat Citadel by 23-15 points last two years; Tigers play first ACC game Saturday vs Florida State- they're 5-1 vs teams not in the top 200, with four of five wins by 15+ points. Citadel lost its last six games, with losses by 40-32 points in their last two games; they're coached by Chuck Driesell, son of Lefty. First game in nine days for Clemson.
|Heart of Dallas Bowl (Dallas)
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:07:50 AM
Boise State was -16.5 over Utah in Las Vegas Bowl two years ago; that’s biggest bowl spread in last nine years. When was last time a bowl team was a 17-point favorite? Purdue already fired its coach, so they’re at big disadvantage preparation-wise; their QB is playing with a torn ACL, but they did win last three games all vs non-bowl teams (two by a FG each), which got them here, but wasn’t enough to save Hope’s job. Boilers are 3-2 vs spread as an underdog- they lost 20-17 at Notre Dame back in September and lost in OT at Ohio State, but also lost four games in five-week stretch by 16+ points. Oklahoma State scored 49 ppg in its last four games but split the four; in six of their games this year, the losing side scored 30+ points. Gundy is 4-2 as a HC in bowls (3-3 vs spread). Big Dozen teams lost first two editions of this bowl, 45-38/30-14, both a 7.5-point underdogs (1-1 vs spread). Heart of Dallas Bowl is played in the Cotton Bowl; the actual Cotton Bowl is played in massive Jerry World; go figure.
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Northwestern lost its last nine bowl games; its been 64 years since they won one. Wildcats blew 4th quarter leads in all three of its losses (scored 28+ points in all three) this season; they covered 10 of last 11 games overall, are 6-0-1 vs spread when favored. Mississippi State started out 7-0 vs incredible assortment of stiffs, then lost 38-7 at Alabama and collapsed, losing four of last five games, with none of four losses by less than 17 points. How are they playing on January 1? None of eight teams they beat are in a bowl game this year; four of them fired their coach. Bulldogs are 0-4 vs spread as underdog this year; favorites covered their last eight games. Mullen is 2-0 as HC in bowls; Fitzgerald is 0-4 in bowls, but covered three of the four as an underdog. SEC teams beat Big Dozen teams in last two Gator Bowls, 52-14/24-17, with Miss State trouncing Michigan two years ago; average total in this bowl last nine years is 55. Underdogs covered four of last six Gator Bowls.
Capital One Bowl (Orlando)
Nebraska might be 10-3, but they lost games 63-38 (@ Ohio State) and 70-31 (vs Wisconsin in Big Dozen title game); they’re bully team- they fold if you punch them back. Cornhuskers lost 36-30 at UCLA team that started six freshmen on offense- they were only an underdog one game (Ohio St) all year. Georgia’s junior QB Murray already has 40 career starts; Dawgs are 5-1 vs spread as favorite of 15 or less points. Nebraska lost here to South Carolina LY; Pelini is 3-2 in bowls, but he won his first three- they lost 19-7/30-13 in last two. SEC teams beat Big Dozen teams in three of last four Capital One Bowls, after Midwesterners had pulled four consecutive upsets before that; Georgia won this game twice in last nine years, 34-27 (-3.5) over Purdue in OT in ’03, 24-12 (-8.5) over Michigan State three years ago; Richt is 7-4 in bowl games, 6-5 against spread. Average total in last four bowls is 42.8. Cornhuskers are just 8-9 in last 17 games away from Lincoln, 0-4 vs spread in last four games as an underdog.
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
South Carolina lost consecutive weeks in October at LSU/Florida, only two games Spurrier lost; Gamecocks are 5-2-1 as favorites this season, despite losing star RB Lattimore for year and having injury issues at QB. Michigan is 2-4 away from home this year, 0-4 vs spread as underdogs; they best team they beat was Northwestern in OT, and they needed OT to do that. South Carolina lost 31-10 (+3.5) to Iowa in this game four years ago. Gamecocks snapped 3-bowl losing streak LY, beating Nebraska 30-13; they had scored 10-7-17 points in previous three bowls. Hoke won his first bowl game with Michigan 23-20 in OT LY, first time in five bowls Wolverines allowed less than 32 points. Spurrier is 8-10 in bowl games, 2-4 at Carolina. Michigan became more balanced on offense with Gardner at QB. SEC teams are 5-3 vs Big Dozen in this bowl last eight years, with underdogs 5-3 vs spread and two of last three going to overtime. Favorites were 9-13 in bowls coming into today.
Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
All five Wisconsin losses this year were either by 3 points or in OT, as six of its eight wins were by 11+ points. Badger AD Alvarez is netting $118,000 for coaching just this game, with a $50,000 bonus if he wins!!!! Over the last nine years, Big Dozen teams are 1-7 in Rose Bowl, with Wisconsin losing last two years, 21-19 (+3) to TCU, 45-38 (+5) to Oregon LY. Badgers lost four of last five bowls, but were dog in all five (2-3 vs spread); they're first team to get to Rose Bowl with five losses. Stanford is in this game for first time since '99; they've lost four of last five bowls, with underdogs covering four of the five games- dogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight Rose Bowls, 4-1 in last five that didn’t have USC in it. Cardinal lost at Washington in OT on a Thursday, then got hosed in OT at Notre Dame two weeks later, only games they lost this year. Stanford is 4-6 vs spread as favorite this year. Bowl teams that changed head coaches before their bowl game are 2-3 so far this bowl season.
Orange Bowl (Miami)
Northern Illinois had to buy 17,500 tickets for this game; their average home attendance was under 16,000, but 1,500 NIU students took buses down here over weekend, so Huskies will have support, just not at the level Florida State will. NIU covered 11 of last 16 tries as an underdog; they lost opener 18-17 to Iowa in Chicago, then ran table, winning by a point at Army, winning MAC title game in OT over Kent State. ACC teams lost six of last seven Orange Bowls, with last four all decided by 10+ points; underdogs won four of last five SU. Florida State lost this game 16-14 (+1.5) to Miami in ’03, then lost again in ’05 to Penn State 26-23 (+10) in OT. Seminoles struggled in last four games, losing 37-26 at home to Florida, beating Va Tech/Ga Tech, both by six points- they've won last four bowls, by 29-12-9-4 points (2-0 as favorite). Huskies won last two bowls, over Fresno St/Arkansas St, but they also lost 49-7 to Wisconsin LY. Will Seminoles take Northern Illinois seriously?